How likely is it that ukraine retakes crimea

  1. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    yeah

  2. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    yeah

  3. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    it's a reasonable goal, if/when they hold the kherson region up to the dniepro they can basically pelt everything in Crimea with rockets and arty until they die of old age. The russians garrisoned there can either sit and be shelled or fuck off really

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      This but with the added qualifier that they can cut the entire peninsula off relatively easily by just threatening/cutting the bridge and getting some Neptunes well-placed.

      So on top of being able to force Crimea to sortie out of a narrow neck in the peninsula to stop the bombardment, they can do so while denying them resupply. How long do you think they can withstand that? That's flammenwerfer at the entrance of the bunker tier fucked.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        >flammenwerfer
        It werfers flammen

  4. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    in these 8 months the chances went from 0% to not 0%, at this point it wouldn't surprise me

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      I'm on the same boat, I still think it's difficult, but I don't think it is impossible

  5. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Pretty likely. not guaranteed, but pretty likely.

  6. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    not this year
    reminder that each area that russia loses frees up additional troops and equipment to reinforce the remaining zones
    and crimea will be the last one they hold on to

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Not if they abandon all their equipment

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        aaah im abandooninggg

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Not if we take Konigsberg

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        you misspelled królewiec

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          polaks might be the only thing worse than vatmorons

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          No, he did not

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      If they lose the entire Kherson front, do you really think the Russians are gonna be up for a fight anywhere? They would collapse like a house of cards and be forced to moooobilise to save it lmao.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      lol, these r*ssians come back with zero equipment, and are a deserter, they all get shot.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >"troops who abandoned their positions will return to another front"
      LoL, lmao even

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      except most of these soldiers are contractors that can cancel their contract and any of them with even a slight amount of brain activity is going to cancel it the first chance they get

  7. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    likely. I imagine they will by end 2022/beginning 2023

  8. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Current trajectory says likely. Probably not quickly, and probably not involving a heroic slaughter of the Russian forces, but rather logistical strangulation followed by withdrawal and some kind of face saving agreement / 'peacekeeping' presence. There's many, many variables influencing this though, but the longer Russia fails to turn things around, the less likely it is they're keeping (such a presence) in Crimea.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      This. Ukraine will take back the rest of their country first, and will get Crimea back in a peace settlement with some strings attached (Russian as co-official language, amnesty, etc)

  9. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    If they get Kherson and Melitopol then destroy the bridge Crimea will eventually have to surrender or they will die of starvation both in ammo and actual food.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >surrender or they will die of starvation
      under those conditions why would the ukrainians accept a surrender? i'm a moderate, btw.

  10. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    this reminds me, is there a up to date map on the current battle lines?

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      https://deepstatemap.live/
      https://liveuamap.com/

  11. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Depends on how much we support them and if were willing to let Ukraine take an offensive move into Russia. Then again I don't believe we or any NATO member recognized Russia's annexation of Crimea so technically as far as we're concerned that's still Ukrainian territory and thusly not an invasion of Russia. I do wonder how Russia would react to that, how'd they escalate the war since thats their land in their eyes

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      they can't escalate shit, they are already sending tanks from the 60s and desperately scrambling for manpower in prisons.
      >but they haven't mobilized
      they have, just not officially

  12. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    80-85% odds

  13. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Only if they leave the bridge alone so the russians can escape though there. But it's a long way away.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >Bomb the bridge
      >Neptunes and Himars destroy or sink any attempt to save the doomstack and the civilians.
      >Everyone surrender
      >Crimea is.now Russia free.

      Meh, fuck the bridge.

  14. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    The question isn't when Ukraine retakes Crimea but how long the siege of Moscow will last and how many Russian women will be sent back to America as sex slaves as part of the terms of capitulation.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >how many Russian women will be sent back to America as sex slaves as part of the terms of capitulation
      I don't think it will match the victory over the Soviet Union, the amount of cheap holes the West received was mind-blowing.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      as a moderate, I have to object to the sexual slavery of russians as it necessitates leaving russians alive

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Least Russiaphobic moderate

  15. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Like 350.

  16. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    The most likely scenario is the destruction of the Kerch bridge and wait until the vatniks army surrenders, calculate for yourself how much this is possible.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Destruction of the bridge seems unlikely. The Ukrainian govnt will want it standing so Russian forces can retreat. Plus, there are signs that the pro-russian crimeans are fleeing to Russia as fighting continues, making crimea more and populated by loyal Ukrainian people. In addition, the bridge is a massively expensive thing, and both countries will want it (and not want to pay for rebuildiing) when relations eventually normalize. A youtube video on the subject also pointed out that western satellites can watch the traffic on the bridge and get a good idea whats going in and out of crimea. This is much harder to do with the ferry system there.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Would require a revolution in Russia to restore trade.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Personally I think Ukraine would prefer to just cut Crimea from land bridge and set their defenses on coast denying Russians safe acces to Sea of Azov.

  17. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >How likely is it that ukraine retakes crimea
    Pretty inevitable.

  18. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    If Georgia starts taking Ossambique and Abkongo back, very.

  19. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    If they clear out the rest of Ukraine and Monke still hasn't launched instant sunshine, I don't see why they can't just blow the bridge, blow the ports and airfields then just bomb the place into starvation. After that its useless to Russia and they wouldn't care about surrendering it anyway.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      It would be useless to Ukraine too though wouldn't it?

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        No, control of the Azov sea is very important for trade (Russians basically blocked it off with the bridge).
        In addition, there's the off-shore oil as well, of course. (It's not much, but it's not nothing either)
        And the Sevastopol naval base (having NATO ships anchored there would be yet another massive "fuck you" to Russia)

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >having NATO ships anchored there would be yet another massive "fuck you" to Russia
          Getting something for our money then.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Mandic

          >having NATO ships anchored there

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >And the Sevastopol naval base (having NATO ships anchored there would be yet another massive "fuck you" to Russia)

          Even better, I want to see Biden, Truss and Zelensky sitting together in Yalta in liberated Crimea discussing borders and geopolitics, with the obvious implication that Ukraine is now more relevent as a geopolitical and military player than Russia.

          • 3 weeks ago
            Mandic
      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        If they turn the water back on, there's decent farmland. Irrigable land just requires irrigation.

  20. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    0%
    ukrops still not taken Lyman

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >on PrepHole 3 weeks ago :
      >0% , Oinkrainians still not taken Izyum

  21. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >How likely is it that ukraine retakes crimea
    It depends on how exactly they are going to take it back under their control:

    Option 1: A classic military offensive - blow up bridges, destroy ports, flatten fortifications with artillery, bomb everything that moves.
    Takes years, but only if the Russians are unwilling to retreat, which is doubtful (especially Sevastopol, see Crimean War 1853-1856, a literal stronghold with fortifications in rocks and submarine bases in grottos; probably the best natural place for a military port, too bad the Vatniks got that luxury).

    Option #2: An unrelenting siege and cutting off all supply and delivery routes to the peninsula, right down to the communication lines and internet cables (the Yooks have Starlink dishes anyway).
    It would take up to half a year, if not less (assuming sabotage and guerrilla operations, blocking the water channel and NOT damaging the exit lane of the Kerch bridge so that Crimea could be left by car or on foot).

    In any case, once Crimea is returned to Ukraine, it should be stripped of even a hint of any autonomy it had in the past, and Sevastopol should be converted into a NATO base to scare the Russians and Turks. Because that's the way I want it.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >Sevastopol should be converted into a NATO base to scare the Russians and Turks. Because that's the way I want it
      based

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >In any case, once Crimea is returned to Ukraine, it should be stripped of even a hint of any autonomy it had in the past, and Sevastopol should be converted into a NATO base to scare the Russians and Turks. Because that's the way I want it.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        the swastika hidden in NATO's logo is bent and broken for a reason

        incompetence fails to meet the NATO standard

  22. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    I'll give you an honest, non meme-y answer: Taking Crimea is probably just as difficult as holding it. The UA landroute is pretty complicated with verry narrow and easily choked logistics and several terrain points that massively favor the defender. The RU landroute is basically a bridge that can be cut with enough firepower. Russians have a bit of longrange fires they can position in the general krasnodar area, that would make an advance even more difficult.
    At the same time, with the bosporus strait closed and a proven anti-ship capability on the side of Ukraine, Crimea could be starved out severely. Last time I checked there were 8 military ships that could transport supplies to Crimea and an unknown number of civilian ships, the only harbors I know of capable of dealing with such volumes would be Yalta, Feodosia and Sevastopol (Feodosia is a big questionmark).
    But in this case, I would say even more important than the logistical situation is the political situation. Russia will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine (including claimed LNR/DNR territory). That is 98% sure. But Crimea is a different situation.
    Crimea would lead to a consolidation of Russian society and to further escalations, including the possibility of actual nuclear threats.
    As much as I'd like to see it, I think it's unlikely Ukraine will retake Crimea. It's possible yeah, but unlikely.
    The smartest thing would be to use Crimea as a pressure point. Force RU to concede other things through a credible threat towards Crimea.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      taking crimea is done with a combined effort of an attack into the land bridge and a beach assault just north of sevastapol. we saw from the air base attacks that the beaches in crimea are still being used by vacationers, meaning they aren't mined.
      >inv4 ukraine has no navy
      lend lease motherfuckers.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Russia might need a lot of troops soon to put out the fires that seem to be starting all around them, and having a bunch locked up in Crimea because they're stubborn about it could turn out even worse for them than just letting it go.
      Then again, I can see China moving in to "stabilise" a lot of those budding conflicts, replacing Russia's status in the region but also freeing them up.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      This kind of compromise is exactly what keeps Russia around.

      The world is through compromising with Russia. Now it is end time.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        German government askes for a ceasefire every fucking day, keeping this already foretold war going needlessly. Germany and France should be forced to pay reparations when this is all over.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          most retarded post on PrepHole rn

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >Germany and France should be forced to pay reparations when this is all over.
          agreed they arent contributing enough so they should pay for the rebuilding of ukraine. after all russia will be too busy fighting a civil war to pay reparations

  23. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous
    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      goodpic

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      failing upwards

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous
  24. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >retake donbass
    85%
    >retake crimea
    15%

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Crimea has no food or water. Its only reliant on russian logistics to keep people hydrated and fed.

      Yes. That russias logistics.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        yeah but unlike russia ukraine cant bomb the civs (not if they dont want another crimea uprising)

  25. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Not likely, garden gnometin would rather pull out all troops and sue for peace than lose Crimea.

  26. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    If a Ukrainian attempt to “invade” (can’t invade your own territory) seems imminent we will see nuclear threats. Crimea is the most important part of Putin’s legacy and losing it would be a different level of humiliation. Can’t imagine the US would be thrilled about the prospect despite the rhetoric

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >we will see nuclear threats
      We've been getting those continuously since the war's start, they don't hold water anymore.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        There are threats and there are threats.

        The threats up to this point have been empty; designed to make a lot of noise, get the usual pundits to say the US shouldn't get involved, and scare the populations of western countries into not supporting Ukraine or sanctions. They might actually consider using nuclear weapons if they risk losing Crimea

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          How would we know they are serious when hysteric screeching and pants-on-head retarded conspiracy theories have become pretty much the standard form of communication from the russmorons?

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >They might actually consider using nuclear weapons if they risk losing Crimea
          they've been screeching about nuclear weapons since the beginning of this war. they won't do shit.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          It's like this. NATO have been watching every Russian launch site, every Russian launch system, for 50 years straight. There are listening centers spread all over the planet for this purpose. It is literally the NATO early warning system. If Russia actually sends out a rocket with nukes, NATO will be forced to consider it a potential attack on NATO and send off their entire arsenal of nukes in an attempt to rip the Russian fingers off their hands before they push any more buttons. This is why the Russians are kinda wary of doing that. They will have no time to say they were just going to destroy some totally not relevant western capital. It will be too late for explanations.

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            this except i believe nato wont respond with nukes, they will use precise, conventional missiles to take out every launch site r*ssia has

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              That's going to be like closing the stable doors after the horse has run off. The system assumes that all the enemy nukes are launched at the same time. Also the sites are placed well away from important targets. The only response there is room for is to destroy the enemy's important targets, and to make absolutely sure the enemy knows it. The only secondary move is to try to neutralize as many missiles as possible in the eair, but most likely NATO planes would not even have time to get airborne - only planes already in the air would have a chance in hell of catching up, and it would be a snowball's chance.

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              Not how that works, bunker busters are nuclear weapons

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                >bunker busters are nuclear weapons
                You dont understand what youre talking about.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >nuclear threats
      lmao, get some new material. Nobody gives a shit anymore, the russians have done that song and dance a little too often.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >Putin’s legacy
      His legacy will be the final collapse of Russian empire.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >its another nuclear hololcaust episode
      Get some new material vatnik

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      His greatest legacy is "undoing everything he worked for the last 25 years".

      Even if he kills zelensky and genocides ukraines to the last man, it's the end of Russian regional power.

      He can't undo that.

  27. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    More likely than it was six months ago

  28. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    The question is not IF they will take Crimea but of Ukraine will STOP at Crimea.
    Likely they will try to banish Russia from the Black Sea entirely.

  29. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Why bother when they can just shut it down completely? Just choke it off and blow up the bridge = no more water, electricity, or fresh supplies. Russians can swim or die.

  30. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    The coming breakup of Russia has so many opportunities for solving the Israel/Palestine issue, by moving Israel to somewhere which wouldn't cause such intractible problems: Crimea, Sakhalin, Kamchatka.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Funny thing is, there already is a garden gnome republic in Russia

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/gnomish_Autonomous_Oblast

      >gee Bill, why does your mom let you have two etnostates?

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        there is like 3 garden gnomes left there

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >he doesn't know about the secret gnomish cloaking device

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            >he doesn't know how to dispell the secret gnomish cloaking device
            >"Oops, it appears i dropped my penny, i sure hope nobody grabs it while im distracted"
            >*sweaty hand rubbing intensifies*

  31. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    at the beginning of this year I would've said slim to none, but with how this shit show plays out now... who the fuck knows anymore?

  32. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    I think it is possible. Maybe not directly military until Ukraine gets donated major naval elements. But look at Afghanistan. Russia marched out to the last man when they accepted they could not hold it. I do not remember the words at the time but probably something about Mission Accomplished and having created lasting peace in the region. They would have to do something similar in Ukraine before the world would be willing to do trade with them again.

  33. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Basically 100%. All they have to do is blow the bridge and shut off the canal. No canal = no water for Crimea. No bridge = no supplies by rail.

    The Russians aren't going to be able to maintain a war footing in Crimea if their only ways to supply it are via boat and plane.

  34. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Technically isn't Turkey obliged to prevent combat ships arriving in the Black Sea for Ukriane as well as for Russia?

    I think technically that only applies to the Bosphorus so small ships could be taken overland or down the Danube or whatever. Or perhaps Romania and/or Bulgaria or even Georgia could provide ships to Ukraine on backfill from the West.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Turkey has banned all ships that don't have a homeport in the Black Sea. Means any Ukrainian ships and Russia Black Fleet ships can enter, but they're already there and some are even at the bottom of the ocean.

      Means also the US can't enter, or UK, or anyone else.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        I meant to say naval ships. Not sure about civilian, but I think they can enter and leave at will (due to train exports).

  35. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Got a gift for helping friend. Should I open it, bros? Expires in a few months.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      if you do take a photo of crosssection

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Is that a curd snack?

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        [...]
        I’ll second the cross section plus add in a do it gay and a plz post pix. I’m legit curious what it tastes like/looks like. Can you read the packaging? Since ingredients would be nifty to know too. Also where did it come from? Is it some kind of MRE thing or what not or did it just come from a stop’n’rob?

        From the ingredients, it looks similar to a Snickers. It came from a friend in Mykolaiv. Not part of an MRE, they are being given to soldiers. I live in western Ukraine.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          I'm almost disappointed it doesn't translate to 'vatnik tears'.

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            mentioning my city's name makes moskal start seething uncontrollably. probably should be called 'vatnik tears'.

            Peanuts and sugar with some chocolate. That is a war winning combo. I hope you guys kick the vatniks out soon because I wanna try some of the products coming out of this. Well. That and I want to see you have a healthy, prosperous, free, and sovereign nation, just, also war candy.

            thanks, fren. try and get a bottle of П'янa Bишня (P'yana Vyshnya). A few branches in Poland. New branch just opened in Budapest as well. Also good chocolate if you don't drink, but we don't export much.

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              https://i.imgur.com/iMaDYei.jpg

              [...]
              From the ingredients, it looks similar to a Snickers. It came from a friend in Mykolaiv. Not part of an MRE, they are being given to soldiers. I live in western Ukraine.

              I have a huge selection of various drinks to celebrate various events. In the case of Ukrainian victory, what is the most widely drunk alcohol Ukies drink?
              Not looking for anything fancy, just the most widely spread, stereotypical booze I can get in Europe.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                Revō Alco Energy

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                Was really difficult to find, but myself some. Is there any harder booze that's really popular? I heard Horilka was pretty common?

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                If you wanna get wasted for the cheap it’s always some high alco beverage like revo or cheap vodka(horilka is just ukrainian translation for vodka, and in my opinion horilka sounds much more fun) like hlibny dar or hortitsa. Also, if you want to seduce young ukrainian girl just buy her some garge hard drink, they absolutely adore that shit.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                *garage

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                Haha, not in it for the ladies. I just have a sort of prophetic "If X happens I will drink Y" cupboard. So, for example if a politician gets thrown out of
                a window in Czechia, I'm busting out the "Pilsner Urquell" and drinking it from a hussite-esque chalice. If Scotland secedes it's a bottle of Guiness. If the US South secedes again, I have the most disgusting, vile, repulsive and probably genuinely toxic hillbilly moonshine ever created. If Hamburg has another large demonstration I'm shotting Mexikaner. And so on and so forth.
                If Ukies win this war, I just wanna be prepared with some stereotypical drinks.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                Then you should really get your hands on the Revo. This shit knocked off so many ukrainian youth and led to so many fun stories you wouldn’t believe. But I do have to warn you, is tastes like shit. Imagine red bull but worse, and with the hint of vodka taste(that is the trick, Revo is like 9% of alco but you don’t taste so it is so easy to down like 3 cans of it and feel nothing just to regret all your life decisions half an hour later).

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                Sounds like fun, already ordered 12 pieces to get plasered. Thanks man and all the best to you.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                All the best to you too. Actually, this is the sole reason I enjoy imageboards and PrepHole in particular so much. Two decent, thinking people from different parts of the world can easily form a connection. But man, the amount of shills and retards is killing the vibe.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          Peanuts and sugar with some chocolate. That is a war winning combo. I hope you guys kick the vatniks out soon because I wanna try some of the products coming out of this. Well. That and I want to see you have a healthy, prosperous, free, and sovereign nation, just, also war candy.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          Absolute garbage compared to teteriv khmilna vishnya.

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            Jesus Christ, not the Teteriv, anon, what are you doing

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      if you do take a photo of crosssection

      I’ll second the cross section plus add in a do it gay and a plz post pix. I’m legit curious what it tastes like/looks like. Can you read the packaging? Since ingredients would be nifty to know too. Also where did it come from? Is it some kind of MRE thing or what not or did it just come from a stop’n’rob?

    • 3 weeks ago
      Mandic
      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Nevar forget !

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        The flag colors are upside down.

  36. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    It'll be pretty damn hard, Crimea was known as a natural fortress in WW2 for a reason. Even Nazi Germany had to allocate plenty of extra resources than usual to take it over. Its few natural land borders are easy chokepoints and target points, but if Ukraine retakes the entire South up to Crimea, then they probably can. It'll have to be it's own massive offensive though, I'm not even sure If they can even start it until 2024.

  37. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    not likely at all, they've already accepted its russian soil now.

  38. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Manstein did it. I believe in the ukies.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Wowzers, manstein has a pretty big honker. How did the SS miss that one?

  39. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    I don't have high hopes for Ukraine being able to retake Crimea but if they did it would literally mean the end of Russia. It would be utterly impossible to spin losing Crimea in any way that wouldn't be disastrous for the government. The only reason why Russia is held together is the "Russia stronk" mentality and if that goes away there is a very real chance of civil war but if nothing else there will be massive unrest everywhere and you get anarchy.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Russia is on the road to disaster with this government anyway. Why can't they just be a liberal democracy focused on increasing living standards like all decent countries?

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Won't happen as long as the country is ruled by oligarchs. Remember the old days when USA was run by robber baron money?

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          i agree with your oligarch statement.

          >Remember the old days when USA was run by robber baron money
          lol the old days? this is the problem with the US general population right now. split down the middle busy yelling at each other when both sides of government are happily bought and paid for.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        The key problem is that Yeltsin and the other oligarchs stole a lot of money when the USSR broke up and they were suddenly put in charge of the entire economy with no accountability. Like hundreds of billions of dollars, maybe trillions.

        If there's ever a free press, an independent court system, and free and fair multiparty elections, somebody is going to ask what happened to that money. Putin was brought in to cover Yeltsin's ass by pretending to be a rival to Yeltsin.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Because the transition from communism to whatever they had going in the 90s was really traumatic for them. They don’t know HOW to have a liberal democracy. Yes you need to get rid of the siloviki and oligarch factions, but you also need to help the population learn the value of the rule of law, civil rights, free market driven mixed economies, and all that shit. To say nothing of the fact that their arms industry is basically the core of their economy outside of mining and drilling while war is a huge part of their cultural identity.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >you also need to help the population learn the value of the rule of law, civil rights, free market driven mixed economies, and all that shit
          you'd have an easier time doing that in someplace like afghanistan than in russia.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >They don’t know HOW to have a liberal democracy. Yes you need to get rid of the siloviki and oligarch factions, but you also need to help the population learn the value of the rule of law, civil rights, free market driven mixed economies, and all that shit.
          That's the problem...the US was lucky because our founding fathers had enough mutual respect and belief in those basic principles that when John Adams lost to Thomas Jefferson, he didnt pull a Trump, declare himself winner and hold on to power. Everyone just said, "fair fight, just wait til next time!" and carried on. Most of the rest of the world doesn't have that tradition ingrained, so you get countries with democratic frameworks that are run by dictators and strongmen. That's why this shit with Iraq and Afghanistan was so hard. Its not enough to just take out the current rulers and say " Here ya go, enjoy your parliamentary democracy! " and expect to have a new western-style free country just ready to go.

  40. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    I don't want them to honestly. Risk:Reward is utter shit and could result in me and my family actually dying in atomic bombings.
    Take back everything else though and give them better weapons to push the Russians out faster
    t. American

  41. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Crimea is easily defendable so you can bet the Roosky's will lose it

  42. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    The real end goal of this war is UKR joining NATO. To do that, Crimea needs to be settled one way or the other. Russia victory over UKR in totality is at this point probably an impossible goal, so settlement will be negotiated.
    If above is correct, there are only two outcomes:
    > UKR retaking Crimea
    > UKR ceding all interest in it / giving it away
    Given everything that's happened, the only way I see latter occurring is if NATO tells UKR to strike the deal. And I don't see that happening either.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Indeed, Ukraine knows it needs to end this with final borders and inside NATO. All that's really on the table now is Crimea the Donwabeans are already done for even if they don't know it yet.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >The real end goal of this war is UKR joining NATO. To do that, Crimea needs to be settled one way or the other.
      Im not clear on how that "you can't join if you have territorial disputes" works, exactly. I mean even close friend nations like Canada and the US have territorial disputes. The last manned lighthouse in Canada is only still manned by Canadian coast guard because its on an island claimed by both countries and so they're exercising their soverignty over it. Its not a major dispute or anything...mostly just both countries claim it, and the US never dropped the claim even though the Canadians have a military installation there (two coasties who rotate every month). So how does that work?

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        This would be internal to NATO, ditto eg any dispute between Turkey and Greece.

  43. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    A definitive maybe, the Crimea will likely be easier to defend with bridges making easy chokepoints surrounded by the sea and going around them would mean amphibious landing which is not easy at the best of times
    Also we need to see how Russia reacts to that because if there is a place that they would use nukes to defend, its gonna be Crimea

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >which is not easy at the best of times
      so you're saying you just have to do it after 1pm when the russians are in a drunken stupor.

  44. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    6 months ago: Impossible. Today: highly unlikely. Russia will go to irrational lengths to ensure they keep Crimea for internal reasons.

  45. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Most likely.

  46. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Better if Georgia and Chechnya decide to kick things off

  47. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Can they hit the bridge from Kherson? That will tell you the answer

  48. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Perhaps Russia will try to negotiate a border through the Peninsula? Don't know that Ukraine would be willing to deal though, not like Russia has ever been doing anything in good faith. But long long term I don't see what Putin's end game is. One way or another he won't be in office for long, may simply die of old-ish age, then what will Russia be left with? Everyone fucking hating their guts and forcing their disorganized conscripts to flee back behind their own borders.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Putin will not die from old age. I think that can be considered a certainy. My number one guess will be a 'heart attack' or 'allergic reaction'. But sadly not before he has been ousted from power. The gods protect all dictators and evildoers until they have stopped driving up the kill count. But then, the gods does work in mysterious ways.

  49. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    There's too much propaganda flooding both directions.

    Anybody pretending have a clear idea, while also cheering the war on like a football game is an idiot.

    Recent advances were significant but we dont have much of an idea how sustainable it is.
    Russia isn't currently investing much in the war, and seems to be trying to wait out NATO economies propping up Ukraine.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous
      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Are you tuned into internal intelligence messaging?

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >and seems to be trying to wait out NATO economies propping up Ukraine.
      good fucking luck with that
      >inb4 muh winter

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        See this kinda shit doesn't help.

        You're not focused on objectivity, you're just playing a hype game.
        It's not about being the most enthusiastic, it's about understanding the perspective of your enemy.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >it's about understanding the perspective of your enemy.
          i understand it just fine, it doesn't change it from being a fucking pipe dream with no grounds on reality and so i mock it as such, no idea why that gets your panties in a twist

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            >it doesn't change it from being a fucking pipe dream with no grounds on reality

            The reality is, Russia still controls Donbas.
            Like, right now.
            That's the reality.

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              /k/opers got real quiet after this was posted lmao

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                same stupid footballer shit kys

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                the fuck man? i am on your side. objectively russia is not only winning, but also morally right. that's not even taking a side or anything. Russia employed barely 10% of its army and they took 20% of Ukraine, killing most of its decent soldiers and completely crippling their military. Russia barely lifted a finger and not only Ukraine, but also the West is collapsing already.
                Here comes the only bit of speculation: Russia is probably waiting for China to ready its reclamation of Taiwan forces. Then it will send in another 50% or so of its troops to Ukraine and finish it off.
                Given the unfair and traitorous treatment the West has imposed on Russia, I think we both know Russia wont just stop at Lvov 😉

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                >2 more weeks till the push!!
                >another 10% will crush them!!
                >30% will crush all the EU!!
                >ROOOSIA!!!

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                This but unironically.

                There's too much propaganda flooding both directions.

                Anybody pretending have a clear idea, while also cheering the war on like a football game is an idiot.

                Recent advances were significant but we dont have much of an idea how sustainable it is.
                Russia isn't currently investing much in the war, and seems to be trying to wait out NATO economies propping up Ukraine.

                Objective people like this understand this.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                10% of it's army would be about 60-70k soldiers including militia/reserve forces (this figure includes non-frontline troops as well). The rest are air forces, nuclear forces, navy, logistics, etc.

                Their initial committed forces were around 170-190k which was about 2/3 of their offensive-capable combat forces but they continuously pulled more units from other regions. I would suspect something like 3/4 to 4/5 of Russian offensive-capable forces have participated already along with some militia/reserve forces. So maybe something like 250k pre-war strength total? Then that would be about

                The number would probably be something like 80% of their combat forces and about 10% of their reserve forces.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                >i am on your side. objectively russia is not only winning, but also morally right.
                This is some Baghdad Bob level cope right here.
                >Russia employed barely 10% of its army and they took 20% of Ukraine, killing most of its decent soldiers and completely crippling their military.
                This isnt a good look for Russia. If theyre barely trying and getting beaten back everywhere, well, why arent you trying harder? Why are you recruiting from prisons and putting aircraft mechanics into frontline infantry units and sending up T62s to replace lost T80s and T72s?
                If Ukraine's decent soldiers are dead and their army is "crippled," why are your troops abandoning their vehicles, ammo, and even uniforms in a mad dash to flee the fighting?
                >the West is collapsing already.
                Really? Lol, lmao, even
                >Russia is probably waiting for China to ready its reclamation of Taiwan forces. Then it will send in another 50% or so of its troops to Ukraine and finish it off.
                You vatniks are going to be waiting a looooong time, if that's your plan.

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              >The reality is, Russia still controls Donbas.
              for now, at the rate the Ukes are going they're going back to pre invasion borders before the end of the year

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                Yeah everybody knows war is incredibly static.
                Nothing will possibly change between now and then.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                >Yeah everybody knows war is incredibly static.
                >Nothing will possibly change between now and then.
                His said the war isn't static and Russia is degrading significantly faster than Ukraine and will not be able to hold any of their positions?

                How could your reading comprehension possibly be that bad?

                And no, troops, supplies, and morale don't suddenly come out of nowhere.

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              Yes. And? Ukraine just outflanked and disintegrated the entire right Russian flank for the invasion. In the process they captured a major supply network and a shitton of vehicles that were going to be a spearhead for the siege of the heart of their defense of the east. They also took tons of prisoners, got tons of kills, destroyed enemy morale, moved the front forward a shitton and basically ruined the Russian's day.

              By NO reporting did they suffer anywhere near comparable losses to make this happen. So Russia, who couldn't move forward at all, and just lost a shitton of materiel and morale and a decent chunk of men, and who isn't getting a massive influx of any of the above, and who wasn't making any forward progress at all before, is now in a much shittier position.

              Are you familiar with the term snowball? It's where people swap cum back and forth from a blowjob. Basically what I'm saying is DPR and LPR are gonna get facefucked.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                >Are you familiar with the term snowball? It's where people swap cum back and forth from a blowjob. Basically what I'm saying is DPR and LPR are gonna get facefucked.
                lol

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                >moved the front forward a shitton
                they moved it a whole 50 miles. that's literally ww1-tier.

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              >The reality is, Russia still controls Donbas.

              2nd or 3rd strongest military in the world folks.

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              >bragging that Russia still holds land they had before the invasion started

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              >The reality is, Russia still controls Donbas.
              >Like, right now.
              >That's the reality.
              For how long, though? They controlled a lot more than that last week, and the Ukes haven't stopped their offensive.

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              straight to gulag with you globohohol agent

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      1. The vast majority of Russia's actual combat forces (Battalion tactical groups, VDV, tank armies, PMC's) are committed to Ukraine, so the "they are holding back/not actually trying" meme is fake. The rest of their land forces are basically the Russian equivalent of the US's national guard system. They are reserve/militia forces that are more often used for police actions and national disaster relief. They have participated in the war but in minor or peripheral actions, their main role is being an occupation/reserve force that does police and anti-partisan activities or helps reinforce a defense. They play a minor role because Putin doesn't want large numbers of actual Russians (Moscowites) dying in the fighting because it would tank his support.
      2. The fact that they haven't established air superiority speaks volumes about their actual military capacity. As does the fact that they are firing cruise missile from their ships in the Caspian sea.
      3. The Ukrainians have push them in Kharkiv across a river so they have a natural boundary, making it much easier to consolidate than you would expect
      4. Russian logistics on the Kherson front are severely damaged because they don't have a rail connection anymore. They only haven't pulled out yet because Crimea's water and power supply comes from the hydroelectric dam at Kakhovka but it's likely inevitable.
      5. Forcing them across the Dniepper means a new offensively will open in Zaporizhzhia to try to take Meitiopol and destroy the Kerch Bridge, which will totally destroy logistics in the entire Russian front permanently. At that point the war will be over even if Russians fight to the last man.

      >It's just NATO propaganda!!!!!
      Except Russian military bloggers know it's over, only Americans who have barely been paying attention think Russia is going to pull victory from the jaws of defeat
      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/08/we-have-already-lost-far-right-russian-bloggers-slam-kremlin-over-army-response

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >Russia isn't currently investing much in the war,
      Because it has nothing left lmao

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >and seems to be trying to wait out NATO economies propping up Ukraine.
      What? In your mind, what does this even look like? Ukraine had a ~200 billion dollar GDP. U.S States with a higher GDP than all of Ukraine are as follows:
      California
      Texas
      New York
      Florida
      Illinois
      Pennsylvania
      Ohio
      Georgia
      New Jersey
      Washington
      North Carolina
      Massachusetts
      Virginia
      Michigan
      Maryland
      Colorado
      Indiana
      Tennessee
      Minnesota
      Arizona
      Wisconsin
      Missouri
      Connecticut
      South Carolina
      Oregon
      Louisiana
      Alabama
      Kentucky
      Utah
      Iowa
      Oklahoma

      California, Texas, and New York all individually have higher GDPs than the entirety of Russia. What is being waited out? This war is costing America nothing. We could feed every single person in Ukraine, give electricity, water housing, beer, TVs, video game consoles, absolutely everything they were consuming before the war with 0.86% of the U.S. GDP. The U.S. has commited 8 billion dollars to Ukraine so far. To Russia, this may seem impressive. To America, this is comparable to the amount we spent on increasing electric car charging infrastructure.
      >President Biden’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Law includes a total of $7.5 billion to build out a nationwide network of 500,000 electric vehicle chargers.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        No shit, the US has more money.
        But NATO economies are struggling post-pandemic and dealing with energy shortages.

        It's a function of rationalizing to their constituencies why theyre dumping stupid money into a pile of dirt while they're going cold and paying 2x for groceries.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >But NATO economies are struggling post-pandemic and dealing with energy shortages.
          They're not, and we're not. Again, the war in Ukraine is 0.21% of ONLY the recent EXTRA discretionary spending by the Democrats. It is nothing. The war in Ukraine is problem the single most bipartisan current issue, and it's one of the cheapest things we're doing. We just spent near as doesn't matter 4 trillion dollars. You really think Americans care about 8 billion? People aren't turning down thermostats and tightening their belts because of Ukraine. We could fund this war at the current rate for the next thousand years and not even think about it. No one is cold, no one is hungry.
          >why theyre dumping stupid money into a pile of dirt while they're going cold and paying 2x for groceries
          Gonna have a steak and take a long hot shower with a beer in my hand just for you.

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            This is why when I hear about yet another American public sector disaster like how nobody has any drinking water I'm more baffled than outraged because you seem to have basically infinite money

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              Yeah, our infrastructure isn't as good as it could be, that's why we just spent 2.5 trillion on it. What's more amusing is that Americans not having clean tap water is international news. You realize we just trucked in tens of thousands of gallons of clean water instead right? No one is going thirsty. Maybe this vision of America you have in your head makes you feel better, and I understand why you might need to tell yourself it's true, but it's entirely unrelated to reality.

              all the money comes from american serfdom, it didn't grew on trees, you're just slaves working all year long from 9 to 5 while your daughters get pounded by Jamal

              If you'll notice, it's the middle of the day on a Friday. The only reason I'm shitposting on PrepHole during the weekday is because I just started a four day weekend. I have a boring white collar job but there's good benefits, and I get a lot of time off. It's cooling off, so I'm gonna spend the weekend camping, hiking, shooting guns, and just in general enjoying life in the great American outdoors. But, by alll means, continue to cope with your own life however you need to. It's getting to be lunchtime, I'm gonna go grill that steak.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                >It's getting to be lunchtime, I'm gonna go grill that steak.
                Being American is pretty cool. Two years unemployed due to covid, and I still was eating steak and chicken every night. Maybe a few breaks here and there for fast food or stuff like brats and hot links on the grill, some crock-pot stuff with homemade chili and pulled pork. The vatniks picture us shivering outside next to a campfire because of their cutoff of petroleum products. The reality is, i cut back slightly on some creature comforts. Keep seething, Oleg. My country's budget is the USA. Yours is barely Spain's, and at leadt Spain has a lot of ACTUAL friends who will help them out.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                Have fun anon! I'm jealous

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              Infrastructure money is primarily raised and spent on the local level which is a major problem when small governments are expected to fund large projects. The federal government could fix all the outstanding infrastructure projects in the country with less than a trillion dollars but because that bill would get passed easily, it gets held hostage by the party leadership so that they can add unrelated policy goals into it.

              The same is with marijuana legalization. It would easily pass right now but it's being held hostage because democrats want to prioritize minorities getting licenses for marijuana businesses as a form of reparations for the disparate impact of the drug war.

              If the earmarking process still existed much more basics/needed stuff would get passed. Basically what that allowed congressional leadership to do is say "X infrastructure plan is going to spend 10 billion on roads" and then each individual congressman could insert a clause in the bill that said "5 million is going to go to repairing this specific overpass in my district that my constituents are calling me about"

              It used to be a way for congressional leadership to grease the wheels & take care of specific local needs but muh fiscal conservatives got rid of it claiming it was wasteful spending.

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              100% of the time this happens in areas where the population is overwhelmingly black. Water treatment is managed at the municipal level and corrupt black city councils pocket the money that is supposed to go to water and utilities and expect whites to come in and fix the inevitable problems that arise from their greed and incompetence.

              IDK how much you know about American history but there are only two political parties, and the Republican party beat the Democratic party in a civil war in the 1860s, and they spent the next 100 years systematically forcing blacks into positions to rule over whites. A Republican president even used paratroopers to force white teenagers to go to black schools at bayonet point back in the 1950s. At any rate, when you hear about unclean water or levees breaking or bridges collapsing you can guarantee that there is a Congolese city council in charge.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                >. A Republican president even used paratroopers to force white teenagers to go to black schools at bayonet point back in the 1950s.
                Uh, learn to read. He forced white schools to allow black students.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                >he doesn't know about busing
                illbred midwit tells others to read, news at 11.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                >the parties are exactly the same as they were in 1860
                opinion discarded

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >But NATO economies are struggling post-pandemic and dealing with energy shortages.
          You don't seem to get it. "Struggling" means the economies of the EU aren't turni g the profits and productin that were planned. It doesn't mean theyre on the brink of a total collapse. Russia's imports means Germans wear more sweaters and turn the thermostat down a few degrees to deal with the higher utility bill. It doesnt mean Germans are going to be standing around garbage can fires for survival.
          >It's a function of rationalizing to their constituencies why theyre dumping stupid money into a pile of dirt while they're going cold and paying 2x for groceries.
          Most of the aid going to Ukraine has already been bought and paid for. My taxes are not paying for those HIMARS--those were bought back in the 1990s and have been sitting in a warehouse for the last 20 years.I

          And Im not paying 2x for groceries. Maybe 10% more, at worst. Oh noes! My shopping price went from $100 to $110! i must panic text my congressman to cut all aid to Ukraine!

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          Imagine living in such a shithole that you can't imagine your country spending a little extra without completely collapsing. You people need to stop drinking your own kool-aid.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >Recent advances were significant but we dont have much of an idea how sustainable it is.
      This is true enough, but the general trend since February has shown that the Ukrainians have been handling the situation competently and with great morale and resolve, while Russia has just been a mess in almost every factor. My money is on them pressing their advantage in a prudent way.
      >Russia isn't currently investing much in the war, and seems to be trying to wait out NATO economies propping up Ukraine.
      First, Russia has made a HUGE investment in this.their entire economy is seriously fucked, and will be for the forseeable future. Since their whole economy is, at the best of times (not now, for sure) about as big as ONE medium-sized NATO country (like Italy or Spain), waiting for NATO to collapse really seems like a pipe dream, to be generous. Its really more like retardation.

  50. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    If they decide they want it, they will take it.

    It's a matter of tactical expediency and resource management. It's FAR more likely that the pseudo-island will be sieged and starved, driven to either weakness or surrender over time. That saves time, lives and tactical energy. Eventually they will cut it off from russian support one way or another.

  51. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    The way things have been headed lately, I won't discount it. The real question is, what does Putin have to respond with. He's quickly running out of options the human race wouldn't describe as "unthinkable".
    I want to believe he's reasonable enough to acknowledge nuclear response is a dead end, but it's still a possibility.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >I want to believe he's reasonable enough to acknowledge nuclear response is a dead end, but it's still a possibility.
      Yeah, i don't think Putin is literally crazy. He got very bad advice from people who had very bad information. And now he's stuck to this tar baby.

  52. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    If we return Kherson, nothing is impossible, because it would mean at least partial collapse of the russian forces.

  53. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    i feel like that would provoke a tactical strike on KEEEV and all command and control structures, consequences be damned, who knows what Xi-Bear and Put-Ape have agreed to when they talked. maybe they will try to double front silent alliance but surely anyone who doesnt eat propaganda knows that the USA can handle both fronts. plus i think china really doesnt want war, just economic war.
    i dont care who takes they clay here. i just want it over and done with as fast as possible, so my nation can stop sending these fucks money. are they going to pay anyone back for giving them the claws to fight back? ukraine had plenty of time after the USSR fell to get their shit together. but they wasted their time. and wasted it again after Crimea. and are likely wasting it now. but now they are wasting our money when they had all the time in the world to barter, broker and build. fuck em both to death. USA is forever.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >i think china really doesnt want war, just economic war.
      They don't even want that. Trade between the PRC and the west is what pours money and therefore prosperity into their country. PRC wants peace and a stable economic environment, just like the west does. They dont give a shit either way if the town halls in Crimea fly a Ukrainian or Russian flag.

  54. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    yes

  55. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Ukrainian army would need the combined force of the ghost of keev, pontooner, serial smooker and abandooner

  56. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >How likely is it that ukraine retakes crimea
    Certainly. Stripped of all autonomy, Sevastopol will become a HATO military base. Compulsory hormone therapy and gender affirmation surgeries will be assigned to all inhabitants of Crimea who do not speak Ukrainian. Also the biggest and the meanest of HATO mulatto supersoldiers will be going door to door checking on status of aforementioned procedures, anally probing their recipients, on a regular basis.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      God, i hope so.

  57. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Ukraine needs to start flying kamikaze drones into the place.

    A Ukrainian commando team needs to be sent to Transnistria and start fucking shit up there. Don't admit any responsibilities.

  58. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Just because I don't think people fully appreciate just how little the average American cares, and how utterly insane the "How will they justify this to THEIR CONSTITUENTS!?!?!" pearl clutching is.
    This fucking piece of shit costs 4 billion per launch. That's 50% of ALL of the funding to Ukraine up until now. We're building twenty of the fuckers, ten times what we've spent on Ukraine. It's a giant, useless, non-reusable piece of shit that doesn't even work properly, but none of that matters to the average American, because this kind of money simply isn't worth worrying about.
    We're just better, sorry.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >Just because I don't think people fully appreciate just how little the average American cares
      None

      the average american cares none

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        >the average american cares none
        Because supporting Ukraine is such a small part of the budget everyone in government just says, "oh a few hundred million for refurbed Polish and Hungarian tanks and some SAMs and Javelins? Why the fuck not? *signs*, now lets go look at healthcare and talk REAL money..."

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      all the money comes from american serfdom, it didn't grew on trees, you're just slaves working all year long from 9 to 5 while your daughters get pounded by Jamal

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        American serfdom is basically godhood as far as the non-Western world is concerned. I work 7am to 6pm actually, get paid big dick money, Jamal is too broke to fuck my tier of woman, and I get to own guns and use them when I want. Being American is fucking incredible dude

  59. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >taking crimea
    lmaooo. How many tens of thousands swinekrainian lives is that going to cost?

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >swinekrainian
      Porcinainians!

  60. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Hard to tell.
    They'll soon reach the river on the Kharkiv front and when they do the same on the Kherson front there will be a long pause again.
    Ukranians are currently being trained to operate US and German bridgelayers.

  61. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    To be honest I'm not sure what Russia could even do to stop it

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      they could blockade it and there would be very little ukraine could do

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        They managed to lose the Moskva to a country without a navy so I'm not so sure about that

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          ukraine doesn't have anything to hunt and sink russian submarines. also there are specific types of mines that could be set up to ring crimea and russian could make it very hard for ukraine to deal with.

  62. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    My best guess is Crimea will be become Ukrainian clay again but I don't really think it'll be through military offensives.

    I think the war will go on with Ukraine taking back territory through strategic defense, lighting offensives, and slow attrition at times over the next few months.

    No matter how bad it's going for Russia I think it'll go on as long as monke is in power. Eventually either he'll be forcibly removed from power, an hero himself, resign, or press red button and it just leads to his downfall anyway. Once there's no banan depraved monke at the head of everything - the Kremlin will see their chance to pin all their problems/blame on Putin and be looking for any chance to get out of the conflict and to appease any political cocks they can with the world.

    By this time, probably a good few months into the future, Ukraine will be bristling with even more capabilities/fighting power with more lend-lease HATO equipment and super mutant soldiers. So it'll look even more grim for Russia to continue any conflict.

    All Ukraine has to do at that point is say no ceasefire until Crimea is back under their flag. They already will likely have the ability to destroy the Kerch bridge and stem the only supply line Crimea has without Ukraine.

    There's no scenario in the end of all this where Ukraine doesn't get Crimea back imo. That is unless the gloves come off and another wave of VDV come in and take Kyiv in 2 weeks and get Zelensky.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      I disagree with you (wrote this:

      I'll give you an honest, non meme-y answer: Taking Crimea is probably just as difficult as holding it. The UA landroute is pretty complicated with verry narrow and easily choked logistics and several terrain points that massively favor the defender. The RU landroute is basically a bridge that can be cut with enough firepower. Russians have a bit of longrange fires they can position in the general krasnodar area, that would make an advance even more difficult.
      At the same time, with the bosporus strait closed and a proven anti-ship capability on the side of Ukraine, Crimea could be starved out severely. Last time I checked there were 8 military ships that could transport supplies to Crimea and an unknown number of civilian ships, the only harbors I know of capable of dealing with such volumes would be Yalta, Feodosia and Sevastopol (Feodosia is a big questionmark).
      But in this case, I would say even more important than the logistical situation is the political situation. Russia will not use nuclear weapons in Ukraine (including claimed LNR/DNR territory). That is 98% sure. But Crimea is a different situation.
      Crimea would lead to a consolidation of Russian society and to further escalations, including the possibility of actual nuclear threats.
      As much as I'd like to see it, I think it's unlikely Ukraine will retake Crimea. It's possible yeah, but unlikely.
      The smartest thing would be to use Crimea as a pressure point. Force RU to concede other things through a credible threat towards Crimea.

      ). But who knows, maybe you are right. What I really disagree with is your idea that it's just Putin.
      Unironically, and this will sound completely deranged, but Putin is the sanest, most moderate member of his government. I am not even trolling. If you compare him to Medvedev, Zhirikovski (pbuh) and other Duma members, Putin comes across like a dove.
      Any replacement for Putin will be ten times the warmonger he was.

      • 3 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        that just means the new guy is next after the war inevitably still goes on and russia keeps losing.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >pic rel
      who dat?

  63. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    If the Ukrainian armed services make it all the way to Crimea, by definition that Russian army would have been utterly shattered, so it doesn't seem unreasonable that they'd be able to take it back.

  64. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Why haven't they hit the fucking bridge?

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >Surround them on three sides, leaving one side open, to show them a way to life. Show them a way to life so that they will not be in the mood to fight to the death, and then you can take advantage of this to strike them.

  65. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    It will never Fucking happen! The T-14s are about to be brought forward and they are indestructible and unbeatable! Once Russia gets some Chinese artillery hardware and more missiles from the Chinese they will launch a MASSIVE counterattack to wipe out all Ukrainian gains!

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >some North Korean artillery hardware and more missiles from the North Koreans

      fixed that for ya

  66. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Just blow up the bridge and I will be satisfied

  67. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    I think the question will largely depend on morale. If the Russians are able to supply themselves well enough to dig in and fight, it would be extraordinarily difficult to make any progress.

  68. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Take it where?

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