Ukies might struggle at first due to new equipment, Vatniks celebrate too early as they always do, then sudden massive breakthough, Vatniks seethe and cope, Crimea is sieged, Crimean river bridge is blown up once in range, Monke blows his brains out in his bunker
This, except >Monke blows his brains out in his bunker
Hes too much of a bitch to do that. He will be dragged out of his bunker crying and paraded Vercingetorix style, or simply killed by his own men.
I wish le monke would get BTFO but the reality is that he will suck up the defeat and continue like nothing happened. Maybe he will "lose" the next election or retire due to "health concerns" but he will leave one of his puppets in power and retire, live the rest of the his years in the palace he already built with taxpayer monies.
Isnt it too early for Crimea? I expect them to capture the nuclear plant and lands beyond it. Then cut off water to Crimea, blow off the bridge and prepare for phase 2.
>Vatniks celebrate too early as they always do
If some of the new heavy equipment is inevitably lost and be it just a Bradley the board will be spammed for six months about destroyed HATO wunderwaffen.
you will probably see some light offenses and deeper logistical strikes for a while. vatniks will say this is the counteroffensive and it is weak. but it's only to weaken for the main counter offensive. probably a ways out for the main counter offensive
Petr Pavel also said in a statement that Ukies should take their time when getting ready for, and planning, the counterattack. Buy what time is needed to accumulate as much aid and equipment as possible before launching, and in the meantime devastate Puccian "logistics" as much as possible.
It won't end the war, just prevents it going on forever. I've no doubt this war will carry on even past 2025, russia continually grinding away their people to keep whatever they can.
Russia maybe can sustain another year or two if they keep the same pace as now but then yes they will buck broke. That is why they will now try to hold on their occupied areas as long as possible so they can go into a hibernated, low-intensiv warfare just as the 2014-2022 war in Donbas was.
>That is why they will now try to hold on their occupied areas as long as possible so they can go into a hibernated, low-intensiv warfare just as the 2014-2022 war in Donbas was.
The Russians have to be stupid as fuck to think that's possible. You can't go back to how things were once you start a full-fledged invasion into a country.
Everything that is worth shit in Siberia is being shipped off to China for rock bottom prices. This was true before the war. There is nothing new Russia can get out of it.
They're not selling the land, they're selling rights to the shit in it, iirc. Or at least, what they get out of it is going to China. Tis a memememememem.
Ukraine is attacking defensive positions. Russia has saved up its ammo, missiles and 'good tanks' to counter it. Even assuming total and complete collapse by Russia (unlikely), it won't result in massive territorial gains (or regains) by Ukraine. It'll be localised, maybe a few dozen km. Why? Because they're attacking defensive positions that are surrounded by mine fields and Russia can happily deploy its air force as well due to limited AA in the Ukrainian force. They'll lose aircraft, sure, but they'll still blunt the attack.
The counter-offensive is being rushed as it is for some sort of 'gains' because the likes of France and calling (again) for Ukraine to surrender/go to the table. So Ukraine needs to show some sort of gain for all the stuff handed over.
So, it won't end the war. It will be minor at best. Possibly catastrophic for Ukraine (like Russian offensives were). This war is going to go on until the 2030's unless the West gets involved directly or hands over literally hundreds of fight jets, MBTs and IVFs and only USA can do that (Turkey can but lol). China supporting Russia would also increase it.
They don't have enough meat to hold them even under the best circumstances. There's a reason all the vatnig talking heads were begging for several hundred thousand more mobiks to be pressed into service SOMEHOW BY ANY MEANS POSSIBLE if they wanted a chance to blunt Ukraine's offensive.
The issue is that Ukraine has to now be doing the 3:1 ratio. Remember as further Russia gets pushed back the more they're going to start going on about how they're directly under threat. Hell, the talking heads as you call them are saying that Ukraine is going to attack Belgorod (and this is supported by the attacks Ukraine is constantly doing on the city). Since that is part of Russia proper, that would be a big wake up call.
In the end, as I said, Ukraine isn't going to be doing hundreds of km sweeping like they did last year. They would be retarded to try anyway. It isn't as simple as going 'lol just charge to Melitopol and cut Crimea off'. Russia is expecting all this shit. If Ukraine had an air force of 500 F-15E's and 500 F-16's I would be 100% expecting Ukraine to do just that. They don't and likely won't ever, so everything has to be looked at objectively - Ukraine just doesn't have the forces needed to do wide spread territorial grabs.
there are hints of truths here but this is why ukraine will have partial offenses before the main one. to force russia to use some of their equipmen, making them vulnerable. the frontline is long and ukraine has a lot of options
The war is just going to go on and on. The West (well at least USA and UK I assume) have worked out how much Ukraine can reasonably support weapon wise and I can only hope will make sure that the losses (and there will be losses) are quickly replaced. However Ukraine has been screwed. They're owed like 200 IFVs and 200 MBTs from the original pledges. If they had those for the offensive I'd be much more optimistic. Instead the bridages are a hotchpotch of Western and Soviet shit.
Problem is is volume of equipment doesn't necessarily mean victory Russia had tons of equipment for the winter offensive, but not enough trained men to use it effectively.
Giving Ukraine an extra 200 tanks won't matter is 150 of them promptly drive into Russian minefields;
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
It isn't just a number thing, for sure, but they really could have done with what they were promised. At least for reserves. I dunno. I think people are expecting Kharkiv tier shit again.
Ukraine doesn't want to attack Russia proper because it would upset the locals and most likely the west. Russia also knows that and i know for a fact that the amount of soldiers they have garrisoned on the border from Valuiki all the way to Belarus is less than 3000 troops.
Oh yeah they won't do that. That's just what they say.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Really Ukraine's best option would be a large scale feint offensive in order to get Russia to move her reserves close in to fight off the counter attack.
And then hit all of those mobilized and moved forwards artillery and ammunition reserves with every piece of long range artillery Ukraine has.
Then attack someplace different while Russia is trying to dig their reserves out of the rubble.
That means the first two our three assaults by Ukraine isn't going to accomplish much anything than getting mauled. They're going to need to force the Russians to commit before they can unleash a real offensive.
Question is will Russia take the bait or will Russia give ground wait for Ukraine to overextend and then commit.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>Then attack someplace different
You know you cant deploy large forces without being seen by scouts and satellites
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
The Kharkiv offensive proves that Russia doesn't have reliable Scouts and satellites.
Also just like in World War 2, military deception is a thing, both sides have even brought back the inflatable rubber tanks and Air defense vehicles.
Ukraine doesn't want to attack Russia proper because it would upset the locals and most likely the west. Russia also knows that and i know for a fact that the amount of soldiers they have garrisoned on the border from Valuiki all the way to Belarus is less than 3000 troops.
>that would be a big wake up call
It's been a year of attacks on Belgorod, Crimea, and "forever Russian" Kherson. We're about to see Luhansk get liberated. Why is the big tough bear still sleeping?
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Because - believe it or not - random shelling is one thing, but an actual invasion with tanks and infantry purposefully to capture Belgorod so they can 'trade it' in a peace deal would be a big move. But they're never going to do it. USA (and to a lesser extent the others but I am not sure they get much say after the USA) seems like they were unwilling to provide TOO much stuff to Ukraine in case Ukraine got different ideas about where to stop. They have been given enough to make gains and will do it bit by bit. They don't want Ukraine to be so powerful they could actually go >You know what, #yolo, off to Moscow!
In short, random shelling is expected, a mass invasion is not and that would play right into Russia's hands PR wise.
there are hints of truths here but this is why ukraine will have partial offenses before the main one. to force russia to use some of their equipmen, making them vulnerable. the frontline is long and ukraine has a lot of options
>The counter-offensive is being rushed as it is for some sort of 'gains' because the likes of France and calling (again) for Ukraine to surrender/go to the table. So Ukraine needs to show some sort of gain for all the stuff handed over.
Literally noone has said it or demands it
>Literally noone has said it or demands it
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-18/macron-wants-china-s-help-to-bring-russia-ukraine-to-the-table
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/18/emmanuel-macron-working-with-china-end-ukraine-war/
I can post more but I cba. Macron has also called for Ukraine to surrender (twice) and has said that NATO should admit that they started this war by giving Russia security guarantees to secure peace (aka 'you were right to be worried so we won't put troops here any more').
Well, Macron denies the first one. But Zelensky said he said it. Macron then also said that Ukraine should 'give something to Putin to not embarrass him' (so, surrender). I don't understand what is going on in France but it needs to be stopped.
Wow I’m sure they absolutely give a fuck about fucking france’s opinions after blatantly telling them too surrender
France is just trying to be billy big bollocks by going 'we're the reasonable one in the west and want peace hehe'. I mean they're not the only ones. Germany and Italy (and maybe Netherlands) all said it should go to the table early on. France is just heavily compromised. They've shifted to sucking off China's dick now and telling Europe not to help USA if USA gets in a war with China over Taiwan because USA is being aggressive or some shit. Le Pen literally bragged about her being a friend with Putin (she was funded by Russian affiliates duh) and when he invaded she had to quickly spend hundreds of thousands of euros reprinting her election campaign shit removing Putin. She then said >Well be nice to Putin because I'm sure after the war is over we'll need to be friends with him!
But she lost so whatever. Macron isn't much better anyway.
the dumb thing is everybody wants peace... but the peace has to be 'russia leaves all of ukraine so it is back to pre-2014 borders, gives up all 'claims' on the shit, hands back the millions of kidnapped people, pays reparations for the damage, hands over war criminals...' but that isn't going to happen willingly. what, you think ukraine is going gonna >okay sure, we'll let you have all the 'annexed' regions and crimea and we get nothing
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>>okay sure, we'll let you have all the 'annexed' regions and crimea and we get nothing
That it the best case scenario for Ukraine at this point. They'd have to do that and add some piece of paper that they will not join military alliances "in perpetuity" or some such most likely.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
I don't see any reason why would they sign away any land.
Even if offensive fails they can just wait until putin kicks the bucket and see if the next russian government is more agreeable to get rid of the sanctions.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
anybody who believes the counter-offensive will end the war is dumb, anybody who thinks that if ukraine loses they are finished is dumb, anybody who thinks that if russia loses they are finished is dumb. even if ukraine lost every single vehicle they had been donated, they would still be getting some that haven't arrived yet.
the entire counter-offensive won't end the war but it might define what happens next. the war is likely to go on for at least two more years, depending on various factors, even if ukraine is successful.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Why is it the best scenario, exactly?
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Did you accidentally type Ukraine instead of Russia?
This is certainly not a Macron only issue, but has been a uniquely French problem for quite some time i.e. De Gaulle having an absolute chimp out when Allies wouldn't let him call the shots for US and Commonwealth troops were liberating Paris.
>be British >invent football >have a right laugh >French see it >Perifidy Activate >Form FIFA >Say it's the official governing body of football now, tough shit, you can join if you want >France now is the 'head' of football in that regard (IFAB makes rule changes tho) >Be British >Start doing modern olympics >Write a charter on how the Olympics should go >French read this >Grab it >Form the IOC and copy the Liverpool Charter nearly word for word >Head of Olympics is now in France
And so on and so forth. The French literally cannot stand the Anglos having any power in anything.
De Gaulle was correct in his assessment that the UK and US were trying undermine French interests and moving to set up a postwar status quo of France as a rubber stamp junior partner to a US/UK led Western Europe. They're still morones with a fundamentally flawed system of government though.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Nobody wanted that for France, everyone wanted a strong, self sustaining France. The issue was the French had hissyfits any and everytime they had to fulfill an obligation of anykind.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>trying undermine French interests >Until the US/UK/Canada et al liberated France, there were no French interests, only German.
Who gives a fuck, french traitors also told Ukraine that Russia wouldn't invade not to worry, while the US and UK were sounding the alarms
No one cares about some stupid frog morons
Even Perun says they will be because Ukraine doesn't really have the AA systems to protect their cities AND protect a counter-offensive properly. The RuAF is probably the best 'shaped' force of Russia left. Even if it just lobbing gliding bombs at Ukrainian positions well outside of AA range, that is a major issue for Ukraine when they don't have many aircraft of their own that can down them.
Underestimating your opponent has been the downfall of many nations in wars and battles.
That is the issue though, they haven't really been given enough. They need a hell of a lot more. Poland just bought some from Bongland but I assume they're replacing older stocks they gave to Ukraine. This is why I am mad Switzerland destroyed dozens of Rapier batteries because 'No Swiss weapon should be used in war' or some shit like that. Rapiers 2000 are literally perfect for a situation like this. There is ammo supplies in many countries AND it isn't a 'top' system so you have no real worry about it getting donked by something - thus you attach it to a truck or ML-TB or something and ta-da, you have a mobile AA system with an 8km range, which is good enough for a multi-bubble defence system.
they won't do shit. even if they could get the AA that will screen any offensive (they can't), their air units are the only thing holding their shitty gay Federation together
>Why? Because they're attacking defensive positions that are surrounded by mine fields
All memes aside, are sure Russia has even done any of this? Remember the foam dragon teeth things they set out last year? We also now know they are breaking shovels in half so the soldiers can use half a shovel to dig holes to hide in. How do we know the money put aside for these defensive positions just didn't end up in some governors pocket who then bought a new mansion on the beach? These people are hopelessly corrupt
Yeah. That's probably the only thing (along with trenches) that Russia has done right. Whether they will make USE of the minefields (aka have them presighted and all that jazz) is another question. I hope Ukraine has enough de-mining stuff.
If they make it to becene vesele, tokmak, or chernivaka I consider it a major victory.
If they reach Melitopol outskirts or Yakymivka I would consider it a Total victory.
I think it's going to be a repeat of last year and Ukraine will make significant gains. I don't think the Russian forces are responsive enough to close up the gaps when inevitable breakthroughs are made.
This is actually a thing. Many people believe the population of Russia is fake. Made up. Why? Because there have been cases where numbers don't match up. For example, the official census department of Russia said one area had, lets say 15,000,000 people in it (I dunno the exact number) and then Putin does an interview at some point and says there is 8,000,000 people there. In short, people believe Russia makes up how many people are there for various reasons. It is one of the reasons why they've kidnapped millions of Ukrainians. Because they're not as populous as they think they are. Same reason as they wanted to capture Ukraine. They could get 40,000,000 to the nation.
There's a lot of migrants from the neighbouring countries including the illegal ones, i don't think the numbers are made up. Most of them won't join the war though
1. Ukraine is inflicting disproportionate losses on Russian forces. Good estimates start at 2.6-to-1 all the way up to 5-to-1 on deaths.
2. Ukraine uses a high percentage of women in their Armed forces.
3. Russia has to defend their country, not just invade Ukraine. Ukraine gets to dedicate almost every free soldier to fighting Russia
4. Russia wastes hundreds of thousands of men on Naval and Nuclear forces which don't play a big role in the conflict.
5. Russia wastes a lot of men on internal security.
6. Russia has to produce almost all of their own weapons and ammo which uses tens of thousands of citizens (if not hundreds of thousands incl. supply chains). Ukraine meanwhile, effectively, gets hundreds of thousands of foreign citizens working for them to produce weapons for free.
7. Russia has to pay for the war itself, which means taxes, which means keeping people at home, working. Ukraine gets external financial support which means more people can fight.
8. Ukraine gets supplied with free medical services and gets equipment maintained externally. More free labour which frees more citizens for fighting
9. Ukraine gets many times more foreign volunteers than Russia.
10. Russia is forced to garrison Ukrainian territory they control, which eats up troops that could be used for fighting.
10. Ukraine has thousands upon thousands of volunteers providing quasi-military support in procurement, logistics, food prep, etc..
11. Russia mobilized 300K citizens and lost 1.3M to emigration (a lot of whom were military aged males). Ukraine has a lot of people who fled to Europe, but they're mostly women and children getting foreign support, not military aged males.
>7. Russia has to pay for the war itself, which means taxes, which means keeping people at home, working. Ukraine gets external financial support which means more people can fight.
And we're likely headed for a demand destruction recession later this year = lower oil prices & Russian budget deficit blowing out.
Chuds were crowing over Western sanctions backfiring, Russian Ruble up etc etc, but in reality it was a shortlived commodity bullmarket which has already rolled over.
Damn, PrepHole needs to work on its economics. Check the price of Brent crude in 08. Demand is always destroyed in a recession/financial crisis. Oil always booms in recessions.
It appears Putin has started to prosecute e-celebs to fill the warchest, you know you have reached a new low when the best you can brag as a government is throwing to jail some online scammers while using the confiscated money to buy some bullets for conscriptovitch, although I fear the later will be more like "here comes the next yatch".
>been around long enough to see NFKRZ go from a CoD montage shitposter to a commentator explaining Russian history and current events
They grow up so fast...
Technically the Bongs wiped out an entire race in Tasmania... but it was by accident and through disease rather than war. The Russians came close to genociding an entire tribe of native americans on the east coast, but seven escaped with the help of some traders iirc.
but no, no nation state has ever fought to the last man in that way. i guess maybe some tribal wars that haven't been recorded in history may have done so? like a nation in south america or africa wipes out an entire nation by killing every single last one.
Mongols wiped out Khwarezmid (Byzantinium basically) empire
Genghis Khan even went so far as to divert a river through the Khwarezmid emperor's birthplace, erasing it from the map
In two weeks I except vatmorons to be calling Bakhmut a feint
>Genghis Khan even went so far as to divert a river through the Khwarezmid emperor's birthplace, erasing it from the map
I wish I had even 1/10 the gigachad energy he had bros.
>After the war, an 1871 census recorded 221,079 inhabitants, of which 106,254 were women, 28,746 were men, and 86,079 were children (with no indication of sex or upper age limit).[91]
>The worst reports are that up to 90% of the male population was killed, though this figure is without support.[87] One estimate places total Paraguayan losses—through both war and disease—as high as 1.2 million people, or 90% of its pre-war population,[92] but modern scholarship has shown that this number depends on a population census of 1857 that was a government invention.[93] A different estimate places Paraguayan deaths at approximately 300,000 people out of 500,000 to 525,000 pre-war inhabitants.[94]
Yes, the post war government repealed the ban on polygamy.
They also named a huge chunk of their country after American president Rutherford B. Hayes, due to him interceding in the dispute to tell Argentina and Brazil to stop bullying Paraguay so hard.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Paraguay is pretty cool, would be nice to own a cattle ranch in the Chaco.
Damn, can you imagine being a Paraguayan man after the war? These morons probably had more pussy than a toilet seat
https://i.imgur.com/hPV84X5.png
Yes, the post war government repealed the ban on polygamy.
They also named a huge chunk of their country after American president Rutherford B. Hayes, due to him interceding in the dispute to tell Argentina and Brazil to stop bullying Paraguay so hard.
By the way, the reason this happened is because the Paraguay government lead by South American Kim Jong Ill refused to surrender even after his forces were destroyed and instead went around the whole country forcibly conscripting and press ganging every male older than 12 years old and giving them anything to attack the Brazilians and Argentinians with, from rifles to rocks and engaging in a war of attrition where they would defend every inch of Paraguayan land at all costs.
So when people think the Donbass got depopulated of males thanks to this war, don't be surprised if it turns out to be true.
>WW1
The German sulfide fertilizer production, among other industries, broke before the demographics did, and led to a famine and general economic collapse. That's why it was so surprisingly easy for Hitler to rebound - France was in a worse demographic situation 20 years later, even though it won the previous war. >WW2
The Soviets literally had to siege Berlin. The Western Allies were running into Soviet troops by the time whatever remained of German High Command (Jodl, Keitel and Donitz mostly) finally decided to surrender. It was a purely territorial loss.
sorry, Vanya, but loss ratio is literally 1 to 5 up to 1 to 10 at some points on the frontline (Bakhmut), so the chances of you dying in the trenches is higher than for some random ukie
tldr at this ratio Russia will run out of men quicker
Modest gains for Ukraine, nothing wild like taking Crimea and pushing all the way to the pre-2014 borders. Ziggers still claim they're winning because they still hold parts of Ukraine and thirdies will endlessly spam any pictures of damaged or destroyed western vehicles that come out of it.
>we're gonna see more smoker gonna smoke behind enemy lines. >Russians Infra and logistic being fucked >some regular Himars strikes. >some hypersonic superwaffe being intercepted. >Russia gonna chimp out on Ukrainian hospitals and civilian buildings >Russia gonna evaluate it's citizens from their occupied territories >some pokes here and some pokes over there by the Ukkies
in the meantime.
behind the screen. >Russia, gonna have a political problem with Wagner >Ukrainians, gonna prepare mass river crossing or waiting for the dry weather or for Russia to over commit to something like Bakhmut or Vuhledar again
>Secret weapons/Bonus, maybe..we'll this time we're gonna see the Ukkies taking on the skies to blitzkrieg the Russians
Absolute bullshit but god damn, imagine reeanctment of Reichstag and Soviet flag but with Kremlin and Azov flag.
That would be kino of gignatic magnitude.
Cuckniks would get steamrolled HARD and perform more "goodwill gestures" in Melitopol, Mariupol, Blackedmutt, Sewerdonuts and other occupied cities. UkroGODS will start harassing Crimea but they won't go all out there yet.
If Kherson is anything to go by, a fairly limited amount of vehicles breaking the defensive lines of entrenched forces causing a rout. Repeat this several times over different parts of the front and you'll just have a pretty sad and undignified end to this war.
It's not going to be war ending but I imagine Ukraine will make serious gains then eventually stop or slow down significantly. We will definitely see destroyed Leo's, Abrams and Bradley's but all in all I think they'll do alright.
seeing as how ukraine couldnt take back their territory for over 8 years in their failed "anti terrorist operation", the meme offensive will most likely be a complete shitshow.
Realistically I think Ukraine has a 65-75% chance to have a successful counter-offensive, it all depends on the readiness and suprise element of the attack. But I don't think the war will end this year even though they succed their offensive as they won't retake all occupied areas. But we don't know what their goal is with this spring offensive. Well, if not Russian forces collapse totally but I don't see that happening right know.
>take back rest of Kherson and Zaporizhia would be the far easiest and what i believe they will try for this offensive >Donetsk and Luhansk, no way if they can sustain heavy losses as it's really hard to re-take as it's has been heavily reinforced since 2014 >Crimea, not chance as it would be super hard as Ukraine doesn't have any naval forces etc, they could starve out if they can bring down the Kerch bridge for good, but to invade they most have another offensive.
If this offensive fails then the war and borders will be the same as today and will be probably a Korean stalemate where both parties will be signing a cease-fire agreement. Neither will sign a peace-treaty as both won't buckle down.
>But we don't know what their goal is with this spring offensive. Well, if not Russian forces collapse totally but I don't see that happening right know.
Maybe I'm naive but I don't see the time pressure of Ukraine like many other online commentators. The glacial pace of the Russian advance in Bakhmut this winter, plus Russia spunking much of its missile reserves on a unsuccesful attempt to cut off Ukraine's grid, would suggest that it's OK for Ukraine to make limited gains this year, then rest at year end.
One wild card might be a new Trump presidency, and the Russians may try to hold out for that prospect.
Despite the claims, the Republican party supports Ukraine outside a handful of outliers - to the point the House has chastized the President for not providing more equipment. On top of that, public sentiment among Republicans is overwhelmingly in favor of Ukraine. Trump wouldn't abandon Ukraine because it'd be political suicide, his own party and constituents oppose it, and it'd make him look weak. Also what level of cope would Russia be on if their plan was "in 2 years America will force Ukraine to stop winning?"
>Also what level of cope would Russia be on if their plan was "in 2 years America will force Ukraine to stop winning?"
I mean, wasn't that their initial plan with "Europe will freeze"?
No, that had some actual logic to it in that support and sanctions were easy when there is no blowback, and that an economic downturn directly related to actions taken against Russia would change public and political sentiment. A bad call, but not really a stupid one.
>Despite the claims, the Republican party supports Ukraine outside a handful of outliers - to the point the House has chastized the President for not providing more equipment. On top of that, public sentiment among Republicans is overwhelmingly in favor of Ukraine. Trump wouldn't abandon Ukraine because it'd be political suicide, his own party and constituents oppose it, and it'd make him look weak. Also what level of cope would Russia be on if their plan was "in 2 years America will force Ukraine to stop winning?"
I don't know, a lot of the internet hot air from the American rightwing, is against assisting Ukraine. But I don't know how much of this is (1) It's seen as Biden's / the Democrats war, hence a reflex against (2) just general extremist shilling which exists on Twitter but not in the Real World.
Mostly terminal contrarianism amplified by political games. Are there some legit pro-Russian politicians? Sure, but they're in both parties.
>Despite the claims, the Republican party supports Ukraine outside a handful of outliers - to the point the House has chastized the President for not providing more equipment. On top of that, public sentiment among Republicans is overwhelmingly in favor of Ukraine. Trump wouldn't abandon Ukraine because it'd be political suicide, his own party and constituents oppose it, and it'd make him look weak. Also what level of cope would Russia be on if their plan was "in 2 years America will force Ukraine to stop winning?"
I don't know, a lot of the internet hot air from the American rightwing, is against assisting Ukraine. But I don't know how much of this is (1) It's seen as Biden's / the Democrats war, hence a reflex against (2) just general extremist shilling which exists on Twitter but not in the Real World.
>just general extremist shilling which exists on Twitter but not in the Real World.
It's this. I'm a dem but live in in an incredibly republican county of Illinois. Everyone I know almost fully supports everything happening with support to Ukraine. The only real exception is my neighbor who is just batshit insane and thinks he'd be able to survive any sort of major collapse of the country from his dirt crawlspace and two handguns
> my neighbor who is just batshit insane and thinks he'd be able to survive any sort of major collapse of the country from his dirt crawlspace and two handguns
Your neighbor's name is Dale Gribble?
>I don't know, a lot of the internet hot air from the American rightwing, is against assisting Ukraine
Nothing but shills amplifying the statements of a few contrarians or taking other statements completely out of context. Sure, Republicans wanted more scrutiny of the money going to Ukraine but that was to ensure that we are getting the most vatnick scalps per dollar, not a call to cut aide as the Kremlin shills were pushing.
Also, it was under Trump that the US started making the first deliveries of lethal aide (like javelins) to Ukraine. I think most republican voters are just happy to see the trillions spent on the DoD is finally getting to reap the harvest for which it was sown.
Its absolutely true that Russian subversion, firehose of lies, skitzo grooming and polarization/radicalisation spam effects 20% of the western population. That fact alone completely justifies the military aid to Ukraine. Democracy is not to be fucked with by some shitpit like Russia or some pathetic little secret policeman like Putin. The USA/EU/G7/NATO and allies are the light of civilisation and the world that brought it everything from aviation to electrification, computing and antibiotics, the combustions and steam engine, railway, wireless communication and steel hulled ship and that is just a tiny tiny fraction of the creation and invention that democracy has poured out, along with the EU and USA being the worlds biggest food exporters , entertainers and charitable donors. Russia deserves to be obliterated for daring to threaten the heart and hope of mankind which lies not in Russia or any other stuttering dictatorship but in teh democracies as evidenced by the tide of people begging to be admitted to them. Total zigger death. God Bless American. Got Bless Europe.
God Bless the free nations of the world and fuck Russia and its wretched minions
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>indoctrination status : complete
Please tell us why you are posting here instead of fighting on the frontlines. Current PrepHole is fucking ridiculous.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
posted via iPhone
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>using anything apple
I'm not a s.o.y boy.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Lol OK. So what about going to Ukraine so you can fight for the values you were talking about ? They still accept foreign volunteers.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Only if they have previous military experience. They aren't so desesperate as to go recruiting from the prison system or anything like that...
That'd be pathetic, wouldn't it?
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
well, you can still fight for wagner tho
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Damn, too bad. At least you can still sign up for your nation's army I guess.
>if you're not a bootlicker or a warmonger you're anti-American
Please go die in some useless war, and let me chill in the mountains.
By waiting Ukraine gets: >more Western vehicles and equipment >more time to train on this new equipment >able to stockpile more ammunition
Meanwhile the Russians... get to dig even more trench lines and build more strong points? What's the advantage in that when they already have sufficient fall-back lines? What Russia should be doing is full scale mobilization, adding more meat shields to fill all those fall-back lines, but Putin won't order that until it's too late.
The Russians need time to resupply too. I don't think Putin can politically afford full scale mobilization, or he would have done it already.
https://i.imgur.com/nlCE9Ab.png
Many dead khohols for nothing
And then their support from the west will be cuted because people are tired of spending money on unwinnable conflict
>cuted
My ESL friend, are you implying that politicians did anything against the useless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan ? The truth is that the MIC is ruling this country.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
>The Russians need time to resupply too.
While Ukraine gets more Western tanks, IFVs and SPGs Russia gets refurbished T55s with AliExpress NV duct-taped on.
The one thing that seemed to be working against Ukraine with time, the supply of AA missiles, is seemingly being rectified now that Western systems are coming online.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Also yesterday the burgers committed to 1.2 billion in long term assistance for air defense missiles and systems. Package or two more like that should be enough.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
I'm indoctrinated by threatres full of children being blown up, yes
kill all russians
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
How would fighting on the front-lines stop Russia's chain of lies and bullshit?
Unless said front lines involves flying a Predator Drone over the Internet Research Center and firing a hellfire missile through it's front door.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Internet Research Agency*
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
By assisting with giving the Russian military such a crushing defeat their entire state's credibility and existence is in jeopardy? No amount of data manipulation and sophistry can cover up Prigozhin shrieking for Shoigu's blood, or the panicked chattering on Russian state TV about how fucked things are.
4 weeks ago
Anonymous
Adding to this, Russia's state TV discussions are so demoralising and contradictory to official narratives I'm amazed the whole lot of them haven't been dragged off air. They run the gamut from peddling lame excuses for the latest defeats while validating them, kvetching about terrible military leadership, rejoicing in the genocidal brutality of the war (completely at odds with stated objectives of 'liberation'), to fatalistic speculation on whether or not war-crimes tribunals are in their future. You couldn't write better anti-propaganda if you deliberately tried.
I think there will be a struggle at first and then the Russian front will mostly crumble
I'm 90% sure there won't be a land bridge between Crimea and Russia by November
It will create some gains which can be used for further offensives in 2024, however you are not going to see something major.
It is going to be a long war but time is on Ukraine's side. Russia doing terror bombing keeps the Ukraine civilian population engaged but I don't see anything keeping the Russian people engaged in this fight, despite Russia trying to frame this as an existential threat (which it isnt), atleast compared to Ukraine.
You can already see various factions rising in Russia and you just need Putin falling down the stairs to make it all collapse.
I didn't look into this much, but it seems to me that Ukrainians have been consistently underestimated in the West from the very beginning. Am I wrong in stating this?
If the pattern continues we might expect Ukraine once again to overperform, whatever that means.
I think the most likely outcome is not a decisive victory for Ukraine, but a victory which basically makes the next offensive almost guaranteed to succeed.
I've given up trying to predict anything anymore. I wish them the best, and hope they film all of it.
If we get to live in a world here we see HD drone video of peak Cold War kit smashing the shit out of Soviet surplus like it was always meant to, this timeline may well be worth it all.
I think its likely the offensive will be an overall success with best case being they severe the land bridge in crimea, its extremely unlikely the offesnive will kick the Russians back to pre war borders but it will be enough to keep momentum going and secure more high tier equipment from Nato
slow and steady gains leading to the siege and eventual taking of crimea resulting in a leadership change in russia and plausibly a collapse of russia as we know it today.
>where's the offensive? It will never happen >XAXAXA your offensive was stopped. 1 million dead hohols already >Why so slow? You only have captured Tokmak >The Melitipol assault is part of the plan. The hohols are falling into the trap and all of them will die. >Why are you celebrating? You wasted all your army for a territory we didn't even want XAXAXA
This. When your goals can be changed on a whim, it doesn't really matter what Russians and shitskins say. Better to just ignore them and drone them to death.
Lira and his ilk already changed the narrative after the Kherson tactical advance toward Russia's borders by going >Russia has already won by weakening the West and NATO! It will cost billions [he is then interrupted by somebody else or he interrupts I cannot remember the order and goes 'no TRILLIONS!'] to repair and rebuild Ukraine! All the while all their stocks of military equipment have been depleted and they're weaker than ever! Plus the division sown by the competing goals and wishes of NATO means it will fracture! Russia will rebuild strong with China and together the bear and the dragon shall rule in a new multipolar world!
Or something like that.
>>Why are you celebrating? You wasted all your army for a territory we didn't even want XAXAXA
I've been saying this since last year. Russia could lose Crimea, lose another 100k men, fall into a recession, have civil unrest and be at risk of breakaway republics forming and they will stay gloat about their victory.
Steel yourselves. Russia will get fucked in the ass and we still get vatniks in here talking about based PUCCNA blooding the West's nose.
>Ukraine miraculously actually regains it’s original borders >”XAXAXA, Russia left a ruin for you to rule. We got stronger from this”
The only solution is a bloody Russian civil war that makes the Taiping rebellion look like a squabble. Absolute destruction of Russia and then brainwash them to have self-hatred like post war Germany.
Forced reeducation is really the only way to prevent Russia from starting another world war. They as a nation as obsessed with this moronic cultish idea that they won WW2 and thus they are forever able to do as they please. There's people simultaneously waving flags of the Czar and of the Soviets. They are not coherent in their thoughts, they just think might makes right and Russia is the mightiest of all. Shatter that delusion.
>Forced reeducation is really the only way to prevent Russia from starting another world war.
Russia is in no position to start a world war. Its economy is smaller than Italies yet it is not in the EU, it's military is less capable at this stage than that of France or Poland, yet it is not in NATO. Its nuclear force has atrophied and it is an economic joke and a demographic, cultural, diplomatic, environmental and scientific and public health disaster area. Failed states in sub saharian africa have more possibilites because at least there is some hope that their trajectory may move upwards. Russia does not even have that. Its nosediving in a vertical downwards trajectory that accelerates daily to a complete economic, diplomatic and military faceplant . Culturally is almost exclusively associated with lying, mass murder, rape, subversion, invasion and looting now. No more swan lake. That'[s communism for you
They weren't satisfied with merely looking strong to their own people. They huffed too much of their own propaganda and went to war. They're struggling in Ukraine and still making threats to NATO.
For security in Europe it's not enough to contain Russia, that has been tried and has failed. Russia must be directly confronted and dismantled as it currently stands. If they turn it into a nuclear conflict then that is their choice and they will be punished accordingly. But they cannot be allowed to just get away with their aggression. Either Putin and his oligarchs can be removed or the Russian people can fall when they do.
No Crimmea. Hopefully they reach Melitipol and liberate it. Cutting Rusmoron forces in two parts causing some massive logistical issues resulting in abondoning some territories without fight Kherson style.
Realistically I belive at least Tokmak should be liberated cutting Zigger railway supies.
I have no hopes for Donetsk region tough.
>How do you guys see this counteroffensive going?
They break through the lines north of Melitopol and then swing west zigzagging through the flanks of the defensive lines til they hit Enerhodar.
When will frenchphpbia stop fueling retarded PrepHole posts? None of what has been posted in this thread about France is true
Russia isnt even a 1/10th as hated as France on this shitcan
>Woe to France >Hon hon hon
Cause you're 5th columnist cunts
At least I know Russia is my enemy without
You are my enemy within >Don't worry about china >Don't worry about Russia >Don't worry about our sanction evading exports >REEEE AMERICA BULLYS POOR EUROPE BY PROVIDING DEFENCE LETS LEAVE NATO AGAIN >REEE FUCK ARTICLE 5 LETS HAVE A HISSY FIT
fuck france
If you were arrogant but had the balls to back it up, like the UK, most people would still respect you. If you were cowardly but humble, like Belgium, most people would also be okay with that. But no, France has to be both insanely arrogant and deHispanicably cowardly at the same time. Fuck you frogs.
The eternal Anglo will never, ever, EVER forgive France for repeatedly kicking them out of mainland and consigning them to the shitty island for all eternity. Remember that all the English kings styled themselves kings of France also, but got eternally cucked.
>Remember that all the English kings styled themselves kings of France also
Only a few did and at that time they ruled more land in the continent than the house of Valois.
How come English people made the only successful modern colonial colonies on earth?
That also happen to be all the best countries on earth today
Why do non white hate anglos so much?
they hate us cuz the ain't us
none of them will ever admit this to your face, but their precious "folk" would have done the exact same shit had our positions been reversed - only less effectively because foreigners can't do anything right
Might happen if France stops being opportunistic backstabbers. They'd sell Europe out in a heartbeat if they thought they'd be in charge of the process.
You will know when it's starting once Ukraine declares a media blackout in x area, then you wait for two weeks up to a month for leaks/videos to start dropping then we will know how it's actually going.
Reminder, again, that the PR plan for how Russia's media, influencers, affiliates and FSB funded western sites are to cover the offensive got leaked. I'll sum it up for you >Ukraine does well
Russia's media is to state that Russia is facing the full might of NATO. To cover their economic and military power difference. To state that they are trying to destroy Russia. However they are to also state that despite the set-back, they inflicted heavy losses on Ukraine and destroyed many Western vehicles. >Ukraine does poorly
Russia's media is to state how Russia is standing up to the full force of NATO. That Ukraine has lost most of their forces. That their failure is causing support to be withdrawn. That Ukraine will eventually be defeated now they've shown they cannot be trusted with western equipment.
Assuming it does go poorly, I assume Russia will try to get the deal it wants - annexed regions officially Russian (including Crimea). Regardless of how it goes, however, they are to cover the destruction of any and all western vehicles in great detail. So when the first MBT and IFV destruction images (and there will be, sadly) pop up, watch there be dozens of articles going on about how the west was foolish to think they could beat Russia and how the west lied to Ukraine about their effectiveness and how the Pentagon is now panicking because it has exposed how poorly their equipment would do against a peer opponent rather than guys in sandals in durkadurka land.
I am posting this in lots of threads because PrepHole needs to be aware of the narrative that is going to be popping up when it comes to it.
Mostly due over-extension I'd say. Risky to leave long supply lines unguarded.
Could work if you had access to US level of logistics, but ukraine have nowhere near that.
The Ukies will find a weak spot, completely overwhelm it, and collapse a large part of the front before Russia stops the bleeding. Either Northern Luhansk or otherwise Melitopol all the way back towards Kherson.
Then we'll do this song and dance again next year, at which point Ukraine will either finally take back Donbas and/or Crimea, or they'll fail and give up.
I think we're going to see a two-stage offensive. First will be an advance on Tokmak, followed by a partial encirclement of Melitopol to bring supply lines within artillery range. Once Tokmak is secured and Ukraine can hamper Russian supply to Melitopol it's going to lower the tempo and consolidate/regroup while pressing areas west of Melitopol and forcing Russia to gamble on fortifying Melitopol at the risk of being cut off when Ukraine moves to fully encircle the city. The actual push to the sea/taking of Melitopol won't happen until late summer.
Ukrainians will find the areas that quickly collapse and push there. Making gains and hopefully protecting their flanks. Russian morale is not going to be high, what reason is there to fight? Many killed on both sides, many Russians surrendering. Even if Crimea isn't retaken, it will be cut off and left as an expensive territory Russia has to pay for.
Neither side is going to throw in the towel and settle for peace but time only favors the Ukrainains so long as morale & aid keep up.
It’ll be blunted and then routed as Ukrainian forces push back and then take back chrimea. Then it might get Hispanicy with Ukraine invading but that would cut ties with their allies so it’s a chance but a small one. Either way Russia has played their hand and it failed abysmally as they could not keep up with the times and will probably be fractured into different states even harder due to the trauma of the war, sanctions, and such
he will do full circles a couple of times before year's end, flip flopping from sticking with european powers, helping ukraine, to DP'ing chinkonese rice grains and trying to warm up with the us again every 3 or so months, the treacherous, spineless weasel that he is
>the treacherous, spineless weasel that he is
I mean look at the guy and tell me you wouldn't trust him to lead your country like I do as a french citizens.
He's done a lot better than Putin and the average frog is wealthier, healthier and happier. Also they are not being conscripted to die in a pointless war of aggression or in threat of being nuked by NATO and can elect another leader because Macon is over. Putin appears to be a dictator for life. Aside form that France has an aviation, shipbuilding and car industry for example. You may not like macron or even france but as this is a thread about the epic historical culsterfuck that is todays Russia France seems like an absolute winrar in comparison.
Heh I wasn't being serious 2 post above, just needed an excuse to macron-post for bit. >You may not like macron or even france but as this is a thread about the epic historical culsterfuck that is todays Russia France seems like an absolute winrar in comparison.
For sure, even now with the pension reforms riot going on here and there, it's nothing compared to the nightmare going on in ukraine.
Also, my apologies for the bit of 4chan off topic.
I have some faith that NATO has a cheat-code for getting around Russian mine-fields via god-tier ISR which they've provided to the Ukranians. Also that NATO vehicles sensors are so good - and so much better than the Russians - they allow Russian vehicles and dug in positions to be engaged on the move at ranges the Russians have no idea what's hitting them or from where. Will see, but I expect to actually see large numbers of Russian troops being cut off in fast advances, much much faster than last year with Kherson.
>Ukrops telegraph crossing the Dnipro >set up a Melitopol offensive at the same time >have highly mobile troops on standby >if Russians reinforce the river, strike south, hoping to cut them off >if Russians reinforce north of Melitopol, actually go for insane river offensive >UK mechanized brigades reinforce whatever plan goes through
feels like the most obvious way to go
they might just go full apeshit and seize something like Belgorod hoping for trades, but I'd assume that's plan C at best
Tomorrow is Russian victory day. High odds the Ukrainians completely destroy the Russian army in the field tomorrow just for bonus points and bragging rights in perpetuity.
Too hard to say, the massive amount of western equipment that's going to be in play is unpreceded in this war.
Regardless, if Ukraine reach the Black Sea and cut off the land bridge the war is over. Russia will have to retreat to Crimea, which will then be sieged after the bridge get's fucked by MLRS (ferries are dogshit for supply large armies, especially under attack.) Naturally this will be a hard prospect, so I'd expect a lot of damage before that happens.
Lot's of dead cockholes, then sudden realization there is no longer enough living cockholes to sustain anything resembling a war effort.
Subhuman nafoids will keep shitting this board for the next few years.
The UAF will gain some ground, enough to beat their chests about, but nothing dispositive.
Let's face it, von Manstein isn't coming through that door. For anything really throat-clearing to happen, the Ukrainians would need two or three German panzer divisions trained to Wehrmacht standards (not this candy-ass Bundeswehr) fighting as "Volunteers", similar to the Chinese in Korea in 1950.
That would put some starch in Ivan's pants, quick time.
There will be more of the same tedium for onlookers, think back to Kherson, then suddenly shit will hit the fan. I think the Ukes will have a tougher time of it when they try to pull some Cossack shit. This will be because they were ready before the weather was ready, and I have a feeling a lot of the offensive guards' training was somewhat bespoke to the strategy. I hope their training was broadened at home while they were waiting for the mud to dry.
>cossack reference
oh my god the cringe. Both countries have the same military traditions. Ukies took Kherson because Russia withdrew to the South side of the river to defensible lines. Where they are now is within reach of the Russian Navy, this coming counteroffensive will be the first time Ukraine makes an offensive where Russia will commit to holding the lines.
It would be an absolutely retarded offensive to make when the Russian navy is still in play in the azov sea. That's why the Ukrainians have been trying to strike at the navy the last few months
>prediction
Months will go on and on without anything happening and ukraine cheerleaders will keep saying say that "[current month] is still in the mud season but this time it's really coming in a couple of weeks".
By waiting Ukraine gets: >more Western vehicles and equipment >more time to train on this new equipment >able to stockpile more ammunition
Meanwhile the Russians... get to dig even more trench lines and build more strong points? What's the advantage in that when they already have sufficient fall-back lines? What Russia should be doing is full scale mobilization, adding more meat shields to fill all those fall-back lines, but Putin won't order that until it's too late.
All those trenches and fortification are just easy targets; russia will keep bragging about how great they are while youwon'tbelievethisdronetrickshotintotrench.gif keeps happening. By the time the tanks roll pass there won't BE an army anymore.
The whistle blowers say we're loosing.and the Russian are falling back from desired location no food water building . Thair not bombings Becous it's all gone a pile of shit.
If the Ukrainians manage to sever Crimea from the mainland and thoroughly sunder the Kerch bridge, all hell really will break loose there as Russian troops desperately try to flee. It's going to be like Dunkirk, except with the sorry excuse of the Russian Navy trying to save everyone.
Ukies might struggle at first due to new equipment, Vatniks celebrate too early as they always do, then sudden massive breakthough, Vatniks seethe and cope, Crimea is sieged, Crimean river bridge is blown up once in range, Monke blows his brains out in his bunker
This, except
>Monke blows his brains out in his bunker
Hes too much of a bitch to do that. He will be dragged out of his bunker crying and paraded Vercingetorix style, or simply killed by his own men.
I wish le monke would get BTFO but the reality is that he will suck up the defeat and continue like nothing happened. Maybe he will "lose" the next election or retire due to "health concerns" but he will leave one of his puppets in power and retire, live the rest of the his years in the palace he already built with taxpayer monies.
Isnt it too early for Crimea? I expect them to capture the nuclear plant and lands beyond it. Then cut off water to Crimea, blow off the bridge and prepare for phase 2.
Nah, the push will be all the way to the sea on one go. There is not really any reason not to do that.
Pushing into Crimea itself would take until winter though.
>Vatniks celebrate too early as they always do
If some of the new heavy equipment is inevitably lost and be it just a Bradley the board will be spammed for six months about destroyed HATO wunderwaffen.
you will probably see some light offenses and deeper logistical strikes for a while. vatniks will say this is the counteroffensive and it is weak. but it's only to weaken for the main counter offensive. probably a ways out for the main counter offensive
Petr Pavel also said in a statement that Ukies should take their time when getting ready for, and planning, the counterattack. Buy what time is needed to accumulate as much aid and equipment as possible before launching, and in the meantime devastate Puccian "logistics" as much as possible.
He's right. I hope Ukrainians are not as fucking dumb as russkoids and won't make strategic military decisions based on meme dates and anniversaries.
Aren't we onto the counter-counter-counter-counter-offsensive at this point?
It won't end the war, just prevents it going on forever. I've no doubt this war will carry on even past 2025, russia continually grinding away their people to keep whatever they can.
Russia has literally no money for a war like this.
Russia maybe can sustain another year or two if they keep the same pace as now but then yes they will buck broke. That is why they will now try to hold on their occupied areas as long as possible so they can go into a hibernated, low-intensiv warfare just as the 2014-2022 war in Donbas was.
>That is why they will now try to hold on their occupied areas as long as possible so they can go into a hibernated, low-intensiv warfare just as the 2014-2022 war in Donbas was.
The Russians have to be stupid as fuck to think that's possible. You can't go back to how things were once you start a full-fledged invasion into a country.
Russia will sell Siberia to keep funding this war, they're that retarded
Russia is selling Siberia already.
I rest my case
What?? When?
Everything that is worth shit in Siberia is being shipped off to China for rock bottom prices. This was true before the war. There is nothing new Russia can get out of it.
They're not selling the land, they're selling rights to the shit in it, iirc. Or at least, what they get out of it is going to China. Tis a memememememem.
No but they can wring enough out of the population to keep it going for a while. All it costs them is their future.
Ukraine is attacking defensive positions. Russia has saved up its ammo, missiles and 'good tanks' to counter it. Even assuming total and complete collapse by Russia (unlikely), it won't result in massive territorial gains (or regains) by Ukraine. It'll be localised, maybe a few dozen km. Why? Because they're attacking defensive positions that are surrounded by mine fields and Russia can happily deploy its air force as well due to limited AA in the Ukrainian force. They'll lose aircraft, sure, but they'll still blunt the attack.
The counter-offensive is being rushed as it is for some sort of 'gains' because the likes of France and calling (again) for Ukraine to surrender/go to the table. So Ukraine needs to show some sort of gain for all the stuff handed over.
So, it won't end the war. It will be minor at best. Possibly catastrophic for Ukraine (like Russian offensives were). This war is going to go on until the 2030's unless the West gets involved directly or hands over literally hundreds of fight jets, MBTs and IVFs and only USA can do that (Turkey can but lol). China supporting Russia would also increase it.
>Ukraine is attacking defensive positions
Isn't everything under attack by definition a defensive position?
Okay, fortifications/fortified positions/defensive emplacement. Come on man.
They don't have enough meat to hold them even under the best circumstances. There's a reason all the vatnig talking heads were begging for several hundred thousand more mobiks to be pressed into service SOMEHOW BY ANY MEANS POSSIBLE if they wanted a chance to blunt Ukraine's offensive.
The issue is that Ukraine has to now be doing the 3:1 ratio. Remember as further Russia gets pushed back the more they're going to start going on about how they're directly under threat. Hell, the talking heads as you call them are saying that Ukraine is going to attack Belgorod (and this is supported by the attacks Ukraine is constantly doing on the city). Since that is part of Russia proper, that would be a big wake up call.
In the end, as I said, Ukraine isn't going to be doing hundreds of km sweeping like they did last year. They would be retarded to try anyway. It isn't as simple as going 'lol just charge to Melitopol and cut Crimea off'. Russia is expecting all this shit. If Ukraine had an air force of 500 F-15E's and 500 F-16's I would be 100% expecting Ukraine to do just that. They don't and likely won't ever, so everything has to be looked at objectively - Ukraine just doesn't have the forces needed to do wide spread territorial grabs.
The war is just going to go on and on. The West (well at least USA and UK I assume) have worked out how much Ukraine can reasonably support weapon wise and I can only hope will make sure that the losses (and there will be losses) are quickly replaced. However Ukraine has been screwed. They're owed like 200 IFVs and 200 MBTs from the original pledges. If they had those for the offensive I'd be much more optimistic. Instead the bridages are a hotchpotch of Western and Soviet shit.
Problem is is volume of equipment doesn't necessarily mean victory Russia had tons of equipment for the winter offensive, but not enough trained men to use it effectively.
Giving Ukraine an extra 200 tanks won't matter is 150 of them promptly drive into Russian minefields;
It isn't just a number thing, for sure, but they really could have done with what they were promised. At least for reserves. I dunno. I think people are expecting Kharkiv tier shit again.
Oh yeah they won't do that. That's just what they say.
Really Ukraine's best option would be a large scale feint offensive in order to get Russia to move her reserves close in to fight off the counter attack.
And then hit all of those mobilized and moved forwards artillery and ammunition reserves with every piece of long range artillery Ukraine has.
Then attack someplace different while Russia is trying to dig their reserves out of the rubble.
That means the first two our three assaults by Ukraine isn't going to accomplish much anything than getting mauled. They're going to need to force the Russians to commit before they can unleash a real offensive.
Question is will Russia take the bait or will Russia give ground wait for Ukraine to overextend and then commit.
>Then attack someplace different
You know you cant deploy large forces without being seen by scouts and satellites
The Kharkiv offensive proves that Russia doesn't have reliable Scouts and satellites.
Also just like in World War 2, military deception is a thing, both sides have even brought back the inflatable rubber tanks and Air defense vehicles.
Ukraine doesn't want to attack Russia proper because it would upset the locals and most likely the west. Russia also knows that and i know for a fact that the amount of soldiers they have garrisoned on the border from Valuiki all the way to Belarus is less than 3000 troops.
>that would be a big wake up call
It's been a year of attacks on Belgorod, Crimea, and "forever Russian" Kherson. We're about to see Luhansk get liberated. Why is the big tough bear still sleeping?
Because - believe it or not - random shelling is one thing, but an actual invasion with tanks and infantry purposefully to capture Belgorod so they can 'trade it' in a peace deal would be a big move. But they're never going to do it. USA (and to a lesser extent the others but I am not sure they get much say after the USA) seems like they were unwilling to provide TOO much stuff to Ukraine in case Ukraine got different ideas about where to stop. They have been given enough to make gains and will do it bit by bit. They don't want Ukraine to be so powerful they could actually go
>You know what, #yolo, off to Moscow!
In short, random shelling is expected, a mass invasion is not and that would play right into Russia's hands PR wise.
>fortifications/fortified positions/defensive emplacement
Like the cum keeps we saw in Kherson?
Yes?
there are hints of truths here but this is why ukraine will have partial offenses before the main one. to force russia to use some of their equipmen, making them vulnerable. the frontline is long and ukraine has a lot of options
Thing is most of those missiles ammo and good tanks are located well behind Russian lines so they can't get HIMARsed
Russia isn't going to commit those until they're sure it's the full counteroffensive
Because if they send them in they will be lost to HIMARs attrition
>The counter-offensive is being rushed as it is for some sort of 'gains' because the likes of France and calling (again) for Ukraine to surrender/go to the table. So Ukraine needs to show some sort of gain for all the stuff handed over.
Literally noone has said it or demands it
>Literally noone has said it or demands it
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-18/macron-wants-china-s-help-to-bring-russia-ukraine-to-the-table
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/18/emmanuel-macron-working-with-china-end-ukraine-war/
I can post more but I cba. Macron has also called for Ukraine to surrender (twice) and has said that NATO should admit that they started this war by giving Russia security guarantees to secure peace (aka 'you were right to be worried so we won't put troops here any more').
>Macron has also called for Ukraine to surrender (twice)
Lmao, they write themselves
Well, Macron denies the first one. But Zelensky said he said it. Macron then also said that Ukraine should 'give something to Putin to not embarrass him' (so, surrender). I don't understand what is going on in France but it needs to be stopped.
France is just trying to be billy big bollocks by going 'we're the reasonable one in the west and want peace hehe'. I mean they're not the only ones. Germany and Italy (and maybe Netherlands) all said it should go to the table early on. France is just heavily compromised. They've shifted to sucking off China's dick now and telling Europe not to help USA if USA gets in a war with China over Taiwan because USA is being aggressive or some shit. Le Pen literally bragged about her being a friend with Putin (she was funded by Russian affiliates duh) and when he invaded she had to quickly spend hundreds of thousands of euros reprinting her election campaign shit removing Putin. She then said
>Well be nice to Putin because I'm sure after the war is over we'll need to be friends with him!
But she lost so whatever. Macron isn't much better anyway.
the dumb thing is everybody wants peace... but the peace has to be 'russia leaves all of ukraine so it is back to pre-2014 borders, gives up all 'claims' on the shit, hands back the millions of kidnapped people, pays reparations for the damage, hands over war criminals...' but that isn't going to happen willingly. what, you think ukraine is going gonna
>okay sure, we'll let you have all the 'annexed' regions and crimea and we get nothing
>>okay sure, we'll let you have all the 'annexed' regions and crimea and we get nothing
That it the best case scenario for Ukraine at this point. They'd have to do that and add some piece of paper that they will not join military alliances "in perpetuity" or some such most likely.
I don't see any reason why would they sign away any land.
Even if offensive fails they can just wait until putin kicks the bucket and see if the next russian government is more agreeable to get rid of the sanctions.
anybody who believes the counter-offensive will end the war is dumb, anybody who thinks that if ukraine loses they are finished is dumb, anybody who thinks that if russia loses they are finished is dumb. even if ukraine lost every single vehicle they had been donated, they would still be getting some that haven't arrived yet.
the entire counter-offensive won't end the war but it might define what happens next. the war is likely to go on for at least two more years, depending on various factors, even if ukraine is successful.
Why is it the best scenario, exactly?
Did you accidentally type Ukraine instead of Russia?
Yeah France might have been cool at one point but I think they’re finally just shit tier now, fuck me that’s just sad
Napoleon spinning in his grave rn.
Wow I’m sure they absolutely give a fuck about fucking france’s opinions after blatantly telling them too surrender
Macron's little Jupiter act is getting boring.
This is certainly not a Macron only issue, but has been a uniquely French problem for quite some time i.e. De Gaulle having an absolute chimp out when Allies wouldn't let him call the shots for US and Commonwealth troops were liberating Paris.
>be British
>invent football
>have a right laugh
>French see it
>Perifidy Activate
>Form FIFA
>Say it's the official governing body of football now, tough shit, you can join if you want
>France now is the 'head' of football in that regard (IFAB makes rule changes tho)
>Be British
>Start doing modern olympics
>Write a charter on how the Olympics should go
>French read this
>Grab it
>Form the IOC and copy the Liverpool Charter nearly word for word
>Head of Olympics is now in France
And so on and so forth. The French literally cannot stand the Anglos having any power in anything.
De Gaulle was correct in his assessment that the UK and US were trying undermine French interests and moving to set up a postwar status quo of France as a rubber stamp junior partner to a US/UK led Western Europe. They're still morones with a fundamentally flawed system of government though.
Nobody wanted that for France, everyone wanted a strong, self sustaining France. The issue was the French had hissyfits any and everytime they had to fulfill an obligation of anykind.
>trying undermine French interests
>Until the US/UK/Canada et al liberated France, there were no French interests, only German.
Who gives a fuck, french traitors also told Ukraine that Russia wouldn't invade not to worry, while the US and UK were sounding the alarms
No one cares about some stupid frog morons
Technically they were the first to commit to send western tanks
>frogs get involved in a proxy war
>still want to surrender
Lmao
>RuAF being a decisive factor
Even Perun says they will be because Ukraine doesn't really have the AA systems to protect their cities AND protect a counter-offensive properly. The RuAF is probably the best 'shaped' force of Russia left. Even if it just lobbing gliding bombs at Ukrainian positions well outside of AA range, that is a major issue for Ukraine when they don't have many aircraft of their own that can down them.
Underestimating your opponent has been the downfall of many nations in wars and battles.
They still won't be a deciding factor of Ukraine keeps getting new AA capabilities from the west. Even if it's still a big issue for them.
That is the issue though, they haven't really been given enough. They need a hell of a lot more. Poland just bought some from Bongland but I assume they're replacing older stocks they gave to Ukraine. This is why I am mad Switzerland destroyed dozens of Rapier batteries because 'No Swiss weapon should be used in war' or some shit like that. Rapiers 2000 are literally perfect for a situation like this. There is ammo supplies in many countries AND it isn't a 'top' system so you have no real worry about it getting donked by something - thus you attach it to a truck or ML-TB or something and ta-da, you have a mobile AA system with an 8km range, which is good enough for a multi-bubble defence system.
Honestly, I think that if the whole "counteroffensive" is successful enough they will get f16s in a couple of months.
>Switzerland destroyed dozens of Rapier batteries because 'No Swiss weapon should be used in war' or some shit like that.
the swiss are such gays
Always have been
they won't do shit. even if they could get the AA that will screen any offensive (they can't), their air units are the only thing holding their shitty gay Federation together
>Why? Because they're attacking defensive positions that are surrounded by mine fields
All memes aside, are sure Russia has even done any of this? Remember the foam dragon teeth things they set out last year? We also now know they are breaking shovels in half so the soldiers can use half a shovel to dig holes to hide in. How do we know the money put aside for these defensive positions just didn't end up in some governors pocket who then bought a new mansion on the beach? These people are hopelessly corrupt
Yeah. That's probably the only thing (along with trenches) that Russia has done right. Whether they will make USE of the minefields (aka have them presighted and all that jazz) is another question. I hope Ukraine has enough de-mining stuff.
Supposedly there are gaps in Russian defenses.
>along with trenches
>Russia has done right
Mate, russian trenches would be laughed at by pre-WW1 generals.
It's all relative, innit.
mark my words, vatnigs will end up nuking themselves somehow
The moment all of the russian warlords start fighting each other, this might be a possibility...
Will give the board a good few years worth of kino though
>Russia pulls a Belka and nukes their own territory in Siberia to prevent China from moving in
If they make it to becene vesele, tokmak, or chernivaka I consider it a major victory.
If they reach Melitopol outskirts or Yakymivka I would consider it a Total victory.
They'll take some towns but lose some western hardware and both sides will declare victory.
I think it's going to be a repeat of last year and Ukraine will make significant gains. I don't think the Russian forces are responsive enough to close up the gaps when inevitable breakthroughs are made.
Ukraine is going to run out of men eventually
That's not how wars work, you usually run out of everything else long before you run out of men
This war has worked differently because the entire youth packed up their bags and left over the last 8 years, increased in rate since the war started.
POCCNR will run out of easily available retards long before Ukraine suffers even an appreciable manpower crunch.
dont russia have a population of like 125M?
This is actually a thing. Many people believe the population of Russia is fake. Made up. Why? Because there have been cases where numbers don't match up. For example, the official census department of Russia said one area had, lets say 15,000,000 people in it (I dunno the exact number) and then Putin does an interview at some point and says there is 8,000,000 people there. In short, people believe Russia makes up how many people are there for various reasons. It is one of the reasons why they've kidnapped millions of Ukrainians. Because they're not as populous as they think they are. Same reason as they wanted to capture Ukraine. They could get 40,000,000 to the nation.
There's a lot of migrants from the neighbouring countries including the illegal ones, i don't think the numbers are made up. Most of them won't join the war though
Regional leaders lie about their population to get more gibs from moscow.
Will they?
1. Ukraine is inflicting disproportionate losses on Russian forces. Good estimates start at 2.6-to-1 all the way up to 5-to-1 on deaths.
2. Ukraine uses a high percentage of women in their Armed forces.
3. Russia has to defend their country, not just invade Ukraine. Ukraine gets to dedicate almost every free soldier to fighting Russia
4. Russia wastes hundreds of thousands of men on Naval and Nuclear forces which don't play a big role in the conflict.
5. Russia wastes a lot of men on internal security.
6. Russia has to produce almost all of their own weapons and ammo which uses tens of thousands of citizens (if not hundreds of thousands incl. supply chains). Ukraine meanwhile, effectively, gets hundreds of thousands of foreign citizens working for them to produce weapons for free.
7. Russia has to pay for the war itself, which means taxes, which means keeping people at home, working. Ukraine gets external financial support which means more people can fight.
8. Ukraine gets supplied with free medical services and gets equipment maintained externally. More free labour which frees more citizens for fighting
9. Ukraine gets many times more foreign volunteers than Russia.
10. Russia is forced to garrison Ukrainian territory they control, which eats up troops that could be used for fighting.
10. Ukraine has thousands upon thousands of volunteers providing quasi-military support in procurement, logistics, food prep, etc..
11. Russia mobilized 300K citizens and lost 1.3M to emigration (a lot of whom were military aged males). Ukraine has a lot of people who fled to Europe, but they're mostly women and children getting foreign support, not military aged males.
>7. Russia has to pay for the war itself, which means taxes, which means keeping people at home, working. Ukraine gets external financial support which means more people can fight.
And we're likely headed for a demand destruction recession later this year = lower oil prices & Russian budget deficit blowing out.
Chuds were crowing over Western sanctions backfiring, Russian Ruble up etc etc, but in reality it was a shortlived commodity bullmarket which has already rolled over.
Damn, PrepHole needs to work on its economics. Check the price of Brent crude in 08. Demand is always destroyed in a recession/financial crisis. Oil always booms in recessions.
Funnily enough:
It appears Putin has started to prosecute e-celebs to fill the warchest, you know you have reached a new low when the best you can brag as a government is throwing to jail some online scammers while using the confiscated money to buy some bullets for conscriptovitch, although I fear the later will be more like "here comes the next yatch".
>been around long enough to see NFKRZ go from a CoD montage shitposter to a commentator explaining Russian history and current events
They grow up so fast...
Ok has this ever happened throughout history? Like seriously
Technically the Bongs wiped out an entire race in Tasmania... but it was by accident and through disease rather than war. The Russians came close to genociding an entire tribe of native americans on the east coast, but seven escaped with the help of some traders iirc.
but no, no nation state has ever fought to the last man in that way. i guess maybe some tribal wars that haven't been recorded in history may have done so? like a nation in south america or africa wipes out an entire nation by killing every single last one.
Probably when we were still tribesmen killing each other with pointy sticks and sharp rocks but not since then
Mongols wiped out Khwarezmid (Byzantinium basically) empire
Genghis Khan even went so far as to divert a river through the Khwarezmid emperor's birthplace, erasing it from the map
In two weeks I except vatmorons to be calling Bakhmut a feint
>Genghis Khan even went so far as to divert a river through the Khwarezmid emperor's birthplace, erasing it from the map
I wish I had even 1/10 the gigachad energy he had bros.
Paraguayan war, where almost all the MAMs died
>After the war, an 1871 census recorded 221,079 inhabitants, of which 106,254 were women, 28,746 were men, and 86,079 were children (with no indication of sex or upper age limit).[91]
>The worst reports are that up to 90% of the male population was killed, though this figure is without support.[87] One estimate places total Paraguayan losses—through both war and disease—as high as 1.2 million people, or 90% of its pre-war population,[92] but modern scholarship has shown that this number depends on a population census of 1857 that was a government invention.[93] A different estimate places Paraguayan deaths at approximately 300,000 people out of 500,000 to 525,000 pre-war inhabitants.[94]
Damn, can you imagine being a Paraguayan man after the war? These morons probably had more pussy than a toilet seat
Yes, the post war government repealed the ban on polygamy.
They also named a huge chunk of their country after American president Rutherford B. Hayes, due to him interceding in the dispute to tell Argentina and Brazil to stop bullying Paraguay so hard.
Paraguay is pretty cool, would be nice to own a cattle ranch in the Chaco.
By the way, the reason this happened is because the Paraguay government lead by South American Kim Jong Ill refused to surrender even after his forces were destroyed and instead went around the whole country forcibly conscripting and press ganging every male older than 12 years old and giving them anything to attack the Brazilians and Argentinians with, from rifles to rocks and engaging in a war of attrition where they would defend every inch of Paraguayan land at all costs.
So when people think the Donbass got depopulated of males thanks to this war, don't be surprised if it turns out to be true.
Happened during the Sri Lankan insurgency
WW1 and WW2. You don't need to literally run out of men, just lose enough manpower to be able to put up a fight.
>WW1
The German sulfide fertilizer production, among other industries, broke before the demographics did, and led to a famine and general economic collapse. That's why it was so surprisingly easy for Hitler to rebound - France was in a worse demographic situation 20 years later, even though it won the previous war.
>WW2
The Soviets literally had to siege Berlin. The Western Allies were running into Soviet troops by the time whatever remained of German High Command (Jodl, Keitel and Donitz mostly) finally decided to surrender. It was a purely territorial loss.
sorry, Vanya, but loss ratio is literally 1 to 5 up to 1 to 10 at some points on the frontline (Bakhmut), so the chances of you dying in the trenches is higher than for some random ukie
tldr at this ratio Russia will run out of men quicker
Modest gains for Ukraine, nothing wild like taking Crimea and pushing all the way to the pre-2014 borders. Ziggers still claim they're winning because they still hold parts of Ukraine and thirdies will endlessly spam any pictures of damaged or destroyed western vehicles that come out of it.
i’m from the future -
gains will include taking tokmak and forcing the russian forces in the right bank of the river to start pulling out of kherson, slowly.
>we're gonna see more smoker gonna smoke behind enemy lines.
>Russians Infra and logistic being fucked
>some regular Himars strikes.
>some hypersonic superwaffe being intercepted.
>Russia gonna chimp out on Ukrainian hospitals and civilian buildings
>Russia gonna evaluate it's citizens from their occupied territories
>some pokes here and some pokes over there by the Ukkies
in the meantime.
behind the screen.
>Russia, gonna have a political problem with Wagner
>Ukrainians, gonna prepare mass river crossing or waiting for the dry weather or for Russia to over commit to something like Bakhmut or Vuhledar again
>Secret weapons/Bonus, maybe..we'll this time we're gonna see the Ukkies taking on the skies to blitzkrieg the Russians
Pooty Poot captured and crucified. Azov flags waving over the Kremlin.
Absolute bullshit but god damn, imagine reeanctment of Reichstag and Soviet flag but with Kremlin and Azov flag.
That would be kino of gignatic magnitude.
Inb4 ukraine becomes a superpower and couped by azov nazis which start a new cold war
About the same as the Northern offensive where they rolled over hundreds of square miles in a short amount of time.
Cuckniks would get steamrolled HARD and perform more "goodwill gestures" in Melitopol, Mariupol, Blackedmutt, Sewerdonuts and other occupied cities. UkroGODS will start harassing Crimea but they won't go all out there yet.
If Kherson is anything to go by, a fairly limited amount of vehicles breaking the defensive lines of entrenched forces causing a rout. Repeat this several times over different parts of the front and you'll just have a pretty sad and undignified end to this war.
It's not going to be war ending but I imagine Ukraine will make serious gains then eventually stop or slow down significantly. We will definitely see destroyed Leo's, Abrams and Bradley's but all in all I think they'll do alright.
this will only be used to fund development of the next generation of tanks
seeing as how ukraine couldnt take back their territory for over 8 years in their failed "anti terrorist operation", the meme offensive will most likely be a complete shitshow.
If it fails we will just send more shit and they can do it again
What the fuck are you talking about you fucking schizo?
Realistically I think Ukraine has a 65-75% chance to have a successful counter-offensive, it all depends on the readiness and suprise element of the attack. But I don't think the war will end this year even though they succed their offensive as they won't retake all occupied areas. But we don't know what their goal is with this spring offensive. Well, if not Russian forces collapse totally but I don't see that happening right know.
>take back rest of Kherson and Zaporizhia would be the far easiest and what i believe they will try for this offensive
>Donetsk and Luhansk, no way if they can sustain heavy losses as it's really hard to re-take as it's has been heavily reinforced since 2014
>Crimea, not chance as it would be super hard as Ukraine doesn't have any naval forces etc, they could starve out if they can bring down the Kerch bridge for good, but to invade they most have another offensive.
If this offensive fails then the war and borders will be the same as today and will be probably a Korean stalemate where both parties will be signing a cease-fire agreement. Neither will sign a peace-treaty as both won't buckle down.
>But we don't know what their goal is with this spring offensive. Well, if not Russian forces collapse totally but I don't see that happening right know.
Maybe I'm naive but I don't see the time pressure of Ukraine like many other online commentators. The glacial pace of the Russian advance in Bakhmut this winter, plus Russia spunking much of its missile reserves on a unsuccesful attempt to cut off Ukraine's grid, would suggest that it's OK for Ukraine to make limited gains this year, then rest at year end.
One wild card might be a new Trump presidency, and the Russians may try to hold out for that prospect.
Despite the claims, the Republican party supports Ukraine outside a handful of outliers - to the point the House has chastized the President for not providing more equipment. On top of that, public sentiment among Republicans is overwhelmingly in favor of Ukraine. Trump wouldn't abandon Ukraine because it'd be political suicide, his own party and constituents oppose it, and it'd make him look weak. Also what level of cope would Russia be on if their plan was "in 2 years America will force Ukraine to stop winning?"
>Also what level of cope would Russia be on if their plan was "in 2 years America will force Ukraine to stop winning?"
I mean, wasn't that their initial plan with "Europe will freeze"?
No, that had some actual logic to it in that support and sanctions were easy when there is no blowback, and that an economic downturn directly related to actions taken against Russia would change public and political sentiment. A bad call, but not really a stupid one.
Mostly terminal contrarianism amplified by political games. Are there some legit pro-Russian politicians? Sure, but they're in both parties.
>Despite the claims, the Republican party supports Ukraine outside a handful of outliers - to the point the House has chastized the President for not providing more equipment. On top of that, public sentiment among Republicans is overwhelmingly in favor of Ukraine. Trump wouldn't abandon Ukraine because it'd be political suicide, his own party and constituents oppose it, and it'd make him look weak. Also what level of cope would Russia be on if their plan was "in 2 years America will force Ukraine to stop winning?"
I don't know, a lot of the internet hot air from the American rightwing, is against assisting Ukraine. But I don't know how much of this is (1) It's seen as Biden's / the Democrats war, hence a reflex against (2) just general extremist shilling which exists on Twitter but not in the Real World.
>just general extremist shilling which exists on Twitter but not in the Real World.
It's this. I'm a dem but live in in an incredibly republican county of Illinois. Everyone I know almost fully supports everything happening with support to Ukraine. The only real exception is my neighbor who is just batshit insane and thinks he'd be able to survive any sort of major collapse of the country from his dirt crawlspace and two handguns
> my neighbor who is just batshit insane and thinks he'd be able to survive any sort of major collapse of the country from his dirt crawlspace and two handguns
Your neighbor's name is Dale Gribble?
>I don't know, a lot of the internet hot air from the American rightwing, is against assisting Ukraine
Nothing but shills amplifying the statements of a few contrarians or taking other statements completely out of context. Sure, Republicans wanted more scrutiny of the money going to Ukraine but that was to ensure that we are getting the most vatnick scalps per dollar, not a call to cut aide as the Kremlin shills were pushing.
Also, it was under Trump that the US started making the first deliveries of lethal aide (like javelins) to Ukraine. I think most republican voters are just happy to see the trillions spent on the DoD is finally getting to reap the harvest for which it was sown.
Its absolutely true that Russian subversion, firehose of lies, skitzo grooming and polarization/radicalisation spam effects 20% of the western population. That fact alone completely justifies the military aid to Ukraine. Democracy is not to be fucked with by some shitpit like Russia or some pathetic little secret policeman like Putin. The USA/EU/G7/NATO and allies are the light of civilisation and the world that brought it everything from aviation to electrification, computing and antibiotics, the combustions and steam engine, railway, wireless communication and steel hulled ship and that is just a tiny tiny fraction of the creation and invention that democracy has poured out, along with the EU and USA being the worlds biggest food exporters , entertainers and charitable donors. Russia deserves to be obliterated for daring to threaten the heart and hope of mankind which lies not in Russia or any other stuttering dictatorship but in teh democracies as evidenced by the tide of people begging to be admitted to them. Total zigger death. God Bless American. Got Bless Europe.
God Bless the free nations of the world and fuck Russia and its wretched minions
>indoctrination status : complete
Please tell us why you are posting here instead of fighting on the frontlines. Current PrepHole is fucking ridiculous.
posted via iPhone
>using anything apple
I'm not a s.o.y boy.
Lol OK. So what about going to Ukraine so you can fight for the values you were talking about ? They still accept foreign volunteers.
Only if they have previous military experience. They aren't so desesperate as to go recruiting from the prison system or anything like that...
That'd be pathetic, wouldn't it?
well, you can still fight for wagner tho
Damn, too bad. At least you can still sign up for your nation's army I guess.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10559879/Zelensky-reveals-prisoners-combat-experience-RELEASED-help-defend-Ukraine.html
>t. anti-american gay pinko liberal
>if you're not a bootlicker or a warmonger you're anti-American
Please go die in some useless war, and let me chill in the mountains.
The Russians need time to resupply too. I don't think Putin can politically afford full scale mobilization, or he would have done it already.
>cuted
My ESL friend, are you implying that politicians did anything against the useless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan ? The truth is that the MIC is ruling this country.
>The Russians need time to resupply too.
While Ukraine gets more Western tanks, IFVs and SPGs Russia gets refurbished T55s with AliExpress NV duct-taped on.
The one thing that seemed to be working against Ukraine with time, the supply of AA missiles, is seemingly being rectified now that Western systems are coming online.
Also yesterday the burgers committed to 1.2 billion in long term assistance for air defense missiles and systems. Package or two more like that should be enough.
I'm indoctrinated by threatres full of children being blown up, yes
kill all russians
How would fighting on the front-lines stop Russia's chain of lies and bullshit?
Unless said front lines involves flying a Predator Drone over the Internet Research Center and firing a hellfire missile through it's front door.
Internet Research Agency*
By assisting with giving the Russian military such a crushing defeat their entire state's credibility and existence is in jeopardy? No amount of data manipulation and sophistry can cover up Prigozhin shrieking for Shoigu's blood, or the panicked chattering on Russian state TV about how fucked things are.
Adding to this, Russia's state TV discussions are so demoralising and contradictory to official narratives I'm amazed the whole lot of them haven't been dragged off air. They run the gamut from peddling lame excuses for the latest defeats while validating them, kvetching about terrible military leadership, rejoicing in the genocidal brutality of the war (completely at odds with stated objectives of 'liberation'), to fatalistic speculation on whether or not war-crimes tribunals are in their future. You couldn't write better anti-propaganda if you deliberately tried.
I think there will be a struggle at first and then the Russian front will mostly crumble
I'm 90% sure there won't be a land bridge between Crimea and Russia by November
It will create some gains which can be used for further offensives in 2024, however you are not going to see something major.
It is going to be a long war but time is on Ukraine's side. Russia doing terror bombing keeps the Ukraine civilian population engaged but I don't see anything keeping the Russian people engaged in this fight, despite Russia trying to frame this as an existential threat (which it isnt), atleast compared to Ukraine.
You can already see various factions rising in Russia and you just need Putin falling down the stairs to make it all collapse.
I didn't look into this much, but it seems to me that Ukrainians have been consistently underestimated in the West from the very beginning. Am I wrong in stating this?
If the pattern continues we might expect Ukraine once again to overperform, whatever that means.
I think the most likely outcome is not a decisive victory for Ukraine, but a victory which basically makes the next offensive almost guaranteed to succeed.
I noticed that for some time. We really do need to stop betting against the Ukrainians.
I've given up trying to predict anything anymore. I wish them the best, and hope they film all of it.
If we get to live in a world here we see HD drone video of peak Cold War kit smashing the shit out of Soviet surplus like it was always meant to, this timeline may well be worth it all.
I think its likely the offensive will be an overall success with best case being they severe the land bridge in crimea, its extremely unlikely the offesnive will kick the Russians back to pre war borders but it will be enough to keep momentum going and secure more high tier equipment from Nato
slow and steady gains leading to the siege and eventual taking of crimea resulting in a leadership change in russia and plausibly a collapse of russia as we know it today.
>where's the offensive? It will never happen
>XAXAXA your offensive was stopped. 1 million dead hohols already
>Why so slow? You only have captured Tokmak
>The Melitipol assault is part of the plan. The hohols are falling into the trap and all of them will die.
>Why are you celebrating? You wasted all your army for a territory we didn't even want XAXAXA
This. When your goals can be changed on a whim, it doesn't really matter what Russians and shitskins say. Better to just ignore them and drone them to death.
Lira and his ilk already changed the narrative after the Kherson tactical advance toward Russia's borders by going
>Russia has already won by weakening the West and NATO! It will cost billions [he is then interrupted by somebody else or he interrupts I cannot remember the order and goes 'no TRILLIONS!'] to repair and rebuild Ukraine! All the while all their stocks of military equipment have been depleted and they're weaker than ever! Plus the division sown by the competing goals and wishes of NATO means it will fracture! Russia will rebuild strong with China and together the bear and the dragon shall rule in a new multipolar world!
Or something like that.
>>Why are you celebrating? You wasted all your army for a territory we didn't even want XAXAXA
I've been saying this since last year. Russia could lose Crimea, lose another 100k men, fall into a recession, have civil unrest and be at risk of breakaway republics forming and they will stay gloat about their victory.
Steel yourselves. Russia will get fucked in the ass and we still get vatniks in here talking about based PUCCNA blooding the West's nose.
>Ukraine miraculously actually regains it’s original borders
>”XAXAXA, Russia left a ruin for you to rule. We got stronger from this”
The only solution is a bloody Russian civil war that makes the Taiping rebellion look like a squabble. Absolute destruction of Russia and then brainwash them to have self-hatred like post war Germany.
Forced reeducation is really the only way to prevent Russia from starting another world war. They as a nation as obsessed with this moronic cultish idea that they won WW2 and thus they are forever able to do as they please. There's people simultaneously waving flags of the Czar and of the Soviets. They are not coherent in their thoughts, they just think might makes right and Russia is the mightiest of all. Shatter that delusion.
>Forced reeducation is really the only way to prevent Russia from starting another world war.
Russia is in no position to start a world war. Its economy is smaller than Italies yet it is not in the EU, it's military is less capable at this stage than that of France or Poland, yet it is not in NATO. Its nuclear force has atrophied and it is an economic joke and a demographic, cultural, diplomatic, environmental and scientific and public health disaster area. Failed states in sub saharian africa have more possibilites because at least there is some hope that their trajectory may move upwards. Russia does not even have that. Its nosediving in a vertical downwards trajectory that accelerates daily to a complete economic, diplomatic and military faceplant . Culturally is almost exclusively associated with lying, mass murder, rape, subversion, invasion and looting now. No more swan lake. That'[s communism for you
They weren't satisfied with merely looking strong to their own people. They huffed too much of their own propaganda and went to war. They're struggling in Ukraine and still making threats to NATO.
For security in Europe it's not enough to contain Russia, that has been tried and has failed. Russia must be directly confronted and dismantled as it currently stands. If they turn it into a nuclear conflict then that is their choice and they will be punished accordingly. But they cannot be allowed to just get away with their aggression. Either Putin and his oligarchs can be removed or the Russian people can fall when they do.
Russian leadership is obviously far more of a threat to itself and Russia than it is to NATO.
>r*ssia get fucked in the ass
>"XAXAXA you got shit on your dick i win"
No Crimmea. Hopefully they reach Melitipol and liberate it. Cutting Rusmoron forces in two parts causing some massive logistical issues resulting in abondoning some territories without fight Kherson style.
Realistically I belive at least Tokmak should be liberated cutting Zigger railway supies.
I have no hopes for Donetsk region tough.
Agreed. Cut the Russian forces in half.
I don't expect the counteroffensive to succeed because Russia has learned a lesson from the last one so they will be prepared this time
They’re still doing blind bum rush charges into minefields as of a month ago, very generous of you to assume lessons have been learned.
it will be a big nothin burger
see you the same time next year
A slow grind out process, tens of thousands will die on both sides. Ukraine will slowly make progress, but it won't be easy.
>How do you guys see this counteroffensive going?
They break through the lines north of Melitopol and then swing west zigzagging through the flanks of the defensive lines til they hit Enerhodar.
When will frenchphpbia stop fueling retarded PrepHole posts? None of what has been posted in this thread about France is true
Russia isnt even a 1/10th as hated as France on this shitcan
Go eat some songbirds in shame, Jacques.
>Russia isnt even 1/10th as hates as France on thjs shitcan
Because hating the fr*nch is actually justified
>Woe to France
>Hon hon hon
Cause you're 5th columnist cunts
At least I know Russia is my enemy without
You are my enemy within
>Don't worry about china
>Don't worry about Russia
>Don't worry about our sanction evading exports
>REEEE AMERICA BULLYS POOR EUROPE BY PROVIDING DEFENCE LETS LEAVE NATO AGAIN
>REEE FUCK ARTICLE 5 LETS HAVE A HISSY FIT
fuck france
If you were arrogant but had the balls to back it up, like the UK, most people would still respect you. If you were cowardly but humble, like Belgium, most people would also be okay with that. But no, France has to be both insanely arrogant and deHispanicably cowardly at the same time. Fuck you frogs.
The eternal Anglo will never, ever, EVER forgive France for repeatedly kicking them out of mainland and consigning them to the shitty island for all eternity. Remember that all the English kings styled themselves kings of France also, but got eternally cucked.
>Remember that all the English kings styled themselves kings of France also
Only a few did and at that time they ruled more land in the continent than the house of Valois.
How come English people made the only successful modern colonial colonies on earth?
That also happen to be all the best countries on earth today
Why do non white hate anglos so much?
they hate us cuz the ain't us
none of them will ever admit this to your face, but their precious "folk" would have done the exact same shit had our positions been reversed - only less effectively because foreigners can't do anything right
>shitty island
When Macron stops trying to kiss Putin and Xi for money.
Might happen if France stops being opportunistic backstabbers. They'd sell Europe out in a heartbeat if they thought they'd be in charge of the process.
France actively undermines EU and NATO goals whenever it doesn't get to pretend it's in charge of things.
Honestly, I'm betting on bulldozers just burying men alive like in Desert Storm.
Krimea by day three and Moscow by Christmas.
source: I made it the fuck up.
That lack of news regarding the supposed counter offensive is getting me a little uneasy. What if it's already underway and going horribly?
I need some copium.
Remember how much news you were getting about the Kharkiv counteroffensive. And it turned out OK.
>Remember how much news you were getting about the Kharkiv counteroffensive.
I really don't remember. I just remember waking up one day and Russia lost a bunch of territory.
There was a lot of hype about Kherson and literal radio silence about Kharkiv. Vatniks ended up losing both.
Don't worry, anon, you'll get some fresh rybar maps showing ukie gains with an announcement later that the attacks were repelled shortly.
You will know when it's starting once Ukraine declares a media blackout in x area, then you wait for two weeks up to a month for leaks/videos to start dropping then we will know how it's actually going.
I think it will go quite well. Once Crimea is seriously threatened, watch how fast Putin sues for peace.
Reminder, again, that the PR plan for how Russia's media, influencers, affiliates and FSB funded western sites are to cover the offensive got leaked. I'll sum it up for you
>Ukraine does well
Russia's media is to state that Russia is facing the full might of NATO. To cover their economic and military power difference. To state that they are trying to destroy Russia. However they are to also state that despite the set-back, they inflicted heavy losses on Ukraine and destroyed many Western vehicles.
>Ukraine does poorly
Russia's media is to state how Russia is standing up to the full force of NATO. That Ukraine has lost most of their forces. That their failure is causing support to be withdrawn. That Ukraine will eventually be defeated now they've shown they cannot be trusted with western equipment.
Assuming it does go poorly, I assume Russia will try to get the deal it wants - annexed regions officially Russian (including Crimea). Regardless of how it goes, however, they are to cover the destruction of any and all western vehicles in great detail. So when the first MBT and IFV destruction images (and there will be, sadly) pop up, watch there be dozens of articles going on about how the west was foolish to think they could beat Russia and how the west lied to Ukraine about their effectiveness and how the Pentagon is now panicking because it has exposed how poorly their equipment would do against a peer opponent rather than guys in sandals in durkadurka land.
I am posting this in lots of threads because PrepHole needs to be aware of the narrative that is going to be popping up when it comes to it.
>Ukraine wins Russia loses Ukraine
>Ukraine loses Russia sets for peace deal
Wow galaxy brain take retard
It's probably going to end up like the kherson offensive - really slow and barely any progress
So it will end with ziggers leaving Melitopol in a gesture of goodwill?
Alright gays, give me one good reason why pic related wouldn't work
Mostly due over-extension I'd say. Risky to leave long supply lines unguarded.
Could work if you had access to US level of logistics, but ukraine have nowhere near that.
>there are no military bases in Russia
Ukraine's not going to invade the internationally recognized Russian territory.
The Ukies will find a weak spot, completely overwhelm it, and collapse a large part of the front before Russia stops the bleeding. Either Northern Luhansk or otherwise Melitopol all the way back towards Kherson.
Then we'll do this song and dance again next year, at which point Ukraine will either finally take back Donbas and/or Crimea, or they'll fail and give up.
i actually think we'll see this at least one more time this year, probably in autumn
I think we're going to see a two-stage offensive. First will be an advance on Tokmak, followed by a partial encirclement of Melitopol to bring supply lines within artillery range. Once Tokmak is secured and Ukraine can hamper Russian supply to Melitopol it's going to lower the tempo and consolidate/regroup while pressing areas west of Melitopol and forcing Russia to gamble on fortifying Melitopol at the risk of being cut off when Ukraine moves to fully encircle the city. The actual push to the sea/taking of Melitopol won't happen until late summer.
>REEEEEEE MUH moronS
nobody cares, white trash
Ukrainians will find the areas that quickly collapse and push there. Making gains and hopefully protecting their flanks. Russian morale is not going to be high, what reason is there to fight? Many killed on both sides, many Russians surrendering. Even if Crimea isn't retaken, it will be cut off and left as an expensive territory Russia has to pay for.
Neither side is going to throw in the towel and settle for peace but time only favors the Ukrainains so long as morale & aid keep up.
It’ll be blunted and then routed as Ukrainian forces push back and then take back chrimea. Then it might get Hispanicy with Ukraine invading but that would cut ties with their allies so it’s a chance but a small one. Either way Russia has played their hand and it failed abysmally as they could not keep up with the times and will probably be fractured into different states even harder due to the trauma of the war, sanctions, and such
Meanwhile 3 months ago.
he will do full circles a couple of times before year's end, flip flopping from sticking with european powers, helping ukraine, to DP'ing chinkonese rice grains and trying to warm up with the us again every 3 or so months, the treacherous, spineless weasel that he is
>the treacherous, spineless weasel that he is
I mean look at the guy and tell me you wouldn't trust him to lead your country like I do as a french citizens.
He's done a lot better than Putin and the average frog is wealthier, healthier and happier. Also they are not being conscripted to die in a pointless war of aggression or in threat of being nuked by NATO and can elect another leader because Macon is over. Putin appears to be a dictator for life. Aside form that France has an aviation, shipbuilding and car industry for example. You may not like macron or even france but as this is a thread about the epic historical culsterfuck that is todays Russia France seems like an absolute winrar in comparison.
Heh I wasn't being serious 2 post above, just needed an excuse to macron-post for bit.
>You may not like macron or even france but as this is a thread about the epic historical culsterfuck that is todays Russia France seems like an absolute winrar in comparison.
For sure, even now with the pension reforms riot going on here and there, it's nothing compared to the nightmare going on in ukraine.
Also, my apologies for the bit of 4chan off topic.
I have some faith that NATO has a cheat-code for getting around Russian mine-fields via god-tier ISR which they've provided to the Ukranians. Also that NATO vehicles sensors are so good - and so much better than the Russians - they allow Russian vehicles and dug in positions to be engaged on the move at ranges the Russians have no idea what's hitting them or from where. Will see, but I expect to actually see large numbers of Russian troops being cut off in fast advances, much much faster than last year with Kherson.
Who is the girl?
No 51st state needed when you can import entire states worth of population every year.
>Ukrops telegraph crossing the Dnipro
>set up a Melitopol offensive at the same time
>have highly mobile troops on standby
>if Russians reinforce the river, strike south, hoping to cut them off
>if Russians reinforce north of Melitopol, actually go for insane river offensive
>UK mechanized brigades reinforce whatever plan goes through
feels like the most obvious way to go
they might just go full apeshit and seize something like Belgorod hoping for trades, but I'd assume that's plan C at best
Tomorrow is Russian victory day. High odds the Ukrainians completely destroy the Russian army in the field tomorrow just for bonus points and bragging rights in perpetuity.
Too hard to say, the massive amount of western equipment that's going to be in play is unpreceded in this war.
Regardless, if Ukraine reach the Black Sea and cut off the land bridge the war is over. Russia will have to retreat to Crimea, which will then be sieged after the bridge get's fucked by MLRS (ferries are dogshit for supply large armies, especially under attack.) Naturally this will be a hard prospect, so I'd expect a lot of damage before that happens.
Lots of people killed. Lots of buildings and infrastructure destroyed.
No different from what's already happened.
Lot's of dead cockholes, then sudden realization there is no longer enough living cockholes to sustain anything resembling a war effort.
Subhuman nafoids will keep shitting this board for the next few years.
The UAF will gain some ground, enough to beat their chests about, but nothing dispositive.
Let's face it, von Manstein isn't coming through that door. For anything really throat-clearing to happen, the Ukrainians would need two or three German panzer divisions trained to Wehrmacht standards (not this candy-ass Bundeswehr) fighting as "Volunteers", similar to the Chinese in Korea in 1950.
That would put some starch in Ivan's pants, quick time.
I no longer think there will be an offensive. There are articles already coming out saying don't hype it.
There were also articles about Russia taking kyev in a week. And of course you shouldn't hype it up.
from over a year ago?
There will be more of the same tedium for onlookers, think back to Kherson, then suddenly shit will hit the fan. I think the Ukes will have a tougher time of it when they try to pull some Cossack shit. This will be because they were ready before the weather was ready, and I have a feeling a lot of the offensive guards' training was somewhat bespoke to the strategy. I hope their training was broadened at home while they were waiting for the mud to dry.
>cossack reference
oh my god the cringe. Both countries have the same military traditions. Ukies took Kherson because Russia withdrew to the South side of the river to defensible lines. Where they are now is within reach of the Russian Navy, this coming counteroffensive will be the first time Ukraine makes an offensive where Russia will commit to holding the lines.
with barely 300 mobiks per square km of the front?
It would be an absolutely retarded offensive to make when the Russian navy is still in play in the azov sea. That's why the Ukrainians have been trying to strike at the navy the last few months
>Russian Navy
The same one that lost their flagship to a country that doesn't have a Navy?
>prediction
Months will go on and on without anything happening and ukraine cheerleaders will keep saying say that "[current month] is still in the mud season but this time it's really coming in a couple of weeks".
Many dead khohols for nothing
And then their support from the west will be cuted because people are tired of spending money on unwinnable conflict
yoo we got the unironical john oblastovic from sankt texasburg posting fr fr
moron
By waiting Ukraine gets:
>more Western vehicles and equipment
>more time to train on this new equipment
>able to stockpile more ammunition
Meanwhile the Russians... get to dig even more trench lines and build more strong points? What's the advantage in that when they already have sufficient fall-back lines? What Russia should be doing is full scale mobilization, adding more meat shields to fill all those fall-back lines, but Putin won't order that until it's too late.
TZD
All those trenches and fortification are just easy targets; russia will keep bragging about how great they are while youwon'tbelievethisdronetrickshotintotrench.gif keeps happening. By the time the tanks roll pass there won't BE an army anymore.
Captcha RA4:YAJ
The whistle blowers say we're loosing.and the Russian are falling back from desired location no food water building . Thair not bombings Becous it's all gone a pile of shit.
>move in Moscow direction
>wait for panicked army to react
>????
>PROFIT
If the Ukrainians manage to sever Crimea from the mainland and thoroughly sunder the Kerch bridge, all hell really will break loose there as Russian troops desperately try to flee. It's going to be like Dunkirk, except with the sorry excuse of the Russian Navy trying to save everyone.