How deep is NATO's air surplus?

My 105 IQ take is that the only way Ukraine can take back territory (without running down its manpower) is by establishing enough air dominance to OBLITERATE Russian lines from the air before assaulting them (rinse, repeat).

On paper it looks like there are huge numbers of F-16s, F-18s, Tornados, etc. slated to be mothballed/scrapped in the coming few years. Are these planes still in good enough working order that it'd make sense to give them to Ukraine? Is the logistics hurdle (training pilots, maintenance, etc.) just too big to overcome in a timeframe that'd make sense?

I really struggle to understand why this isn't already happening. Is it maybe that the book value of these planes is so high that it'd swallow up all budgetarily allocated aid? (value should be zero or negative given they're set to be retired but I suspect they're still valued as new).

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  1. 4 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Tornadoes would be very useful for Ukraine but good luck getting the from Germany. I don't think Italy has any left and Britain certainly doesn't.

    • 4 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      >Tornadoes would be very useful
      Ah yes a strike fighter that suffered the highest casualty rate against dogshit Iraqi AA during the Gulf War is really what Ukraine needs right now.

      https://i.imgur.com/C2N1WLY.jpeg

      My 105 IQ take is that the only way Ukraine can take back territory (without running down its manpower) is by establishing enough air dominance to OBLITERATE Russian lines from the air before assaulting them (rinse, repeat).

      On paper it looks like there are huge numbers of F-16s, F-18s, Tornados, etc. slated to be mothballed/scrapped in the coming few years. Are these planes still in good enough working order that it'd make sense to give them to Ukraine? Is the logistics hurdle (training pilots, maintenance, etc.) just too big to overcome in a timeframe that'd make sense?

      I really struggle to understand why this isn't already happening. Is it maybe that the book value of these planes is so high that it'd swallow up all budgetarily allocated aid? (value should be zero or negative given they're set to be retired but I suspect they're still valued as new).

      Because they don't have pilots and more importantly maintenance crews. Ukraine can't even maintain Leopards 2 on their own let alone an aircraft.

      • 4 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        >dogshit Iraqi AA
        Ironically, much of Russia's AA is of similar pedigree. S-400, while more modern, is not exactly living up to its hype. There may be functionally little difference.

        • 3 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >S-75 and S-400 are the same thing
          What's it like being moronic

      • 4 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        >Ah yes a strike fighter that suffered the highest casualty rate against dogshit Iraqi AA during the Gulf War

        frick off with this reddit pop history.

        They were lost by ground fire from Iraq's comprehensively massive AAA gun network flying against the hardest most unsuppressed targets. When the RAF and RSAF Tornados attacked Habbaniya (main fighter base outside of Baghdad) on the first night it was protected by 148 radar layed AAA batteries, plus an SA-6, SA-8 and a Roland missile (a modern NATO point defense SAM) which the strike force flew directly over the TEL of as they put cluster munitions on the runway.

        There's also the fact that almost all Tornado losses were from toss bombing not low level use of runway cratering munitions. The toss bombing was a well meaning but flawed tactic designed to suppress Iraqi AAA positions the idea was they would have standoff range from the guns and toss airburst fused 1000lb slicks onto the AAA revetments causing a headache for the Iraqi gunners. The problem was that with their radars jammed by Skyshadow DECM pods the Iraqis put up a traditional WW2 style layer of flak focused at 300-400ft and the toss would bring the Tornados into the heavy flank area causing either them getting shred by 23mm or getting disorientated doing the toss with flank shutters down and crashing. Only like 2 RAF Tornados were lost in level flight one was one that got hit by MANPAD flying in daylight off target and a JP-233 equipped Tornado that crashed while evading a missile from either a Mig-25 or a Roland.

        You'd know all this if you actually read the declassified after action reports Black person.

        • 4 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          So you're agreeing with

          >Tornadoes would be very useful
          Ah yes a strike fighter that suffered the highest casualty rate against dogshit Iraqi AA during the Gulf War is really what Ukraine needs right now.
          [...]
          Because they don't have pilots and more importantly maintenance crews. Ukraine can't even maintain Leopards 2 on their own let alone an aircraft.

          that they got recked by Iraqi AA? Why then the hostile tone?

          • 4 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            So basically, you've agreed with the guy, and are seething that he's right.

            >low level attacks are vulnerable to AAA

            You might want to use your samegayging for a seance with John McCaine's ghost and reveal this stunning info.

            The entire point is that Tornados were able to spoof and ARM Iraqi/soviet SAMs like they didn't even exist and only came unstuck due to Iraq having the largest network of modern AAA guns in the world. Russia doesn't even have 148 Tunguska in the entire Crimean peninsula let alone at every airbase (if they did they wouldn't have their refineries getting smoked by DIY drones) and even then they would have had barely any casualties without toss bombing.

            Not that any of this is relevant to modern Tornado IDSs since its not 1991 anymore and they can bomb shit with PGMS from medium level.

            • 4 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              So basically, the planes were destroyed and command was shit. Maybe hohols will be better.

            • 4 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              >You might want to use your samegayging for a seance with John McCaine's ghost and reveal this stunning info.
              You're definitely a tourist if you don't think the prevailing opinion on Songbird McCain around these parts is anything other than "he was a spoiled, moronic butthole who should have stayed in Hanoi"

              • 4 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                Try repairing your political brianrot if you think my reference to McCaine was about anything about him getting shot down by vietnamese AAA over Hanoi and also being a boomer who advocated later for low and slow CAS aircraft despite that.

                but I will be honest that I don't really understand the asshurt at a senile cross party boomer whose dead.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                >him getting shot down by vietnamese AAA over Hanoi and also being a boomer who advocated later for low and slow CAS aircraft despite that
                Because quite frankly he was treading on Reformer ground by refusing to accept change. There's that clip where a USAF representative tries to explain that the B-1 can provide CAS and dude damn nearly verbally abuses her to the cheers of thousands of youtube commenters going "dumb WOMAN put in her place by fighter pilot chad" etc.
                There was also an incentive for him to back low level slow CAS - the A-10 kept jobs in Arizona. Independently of what you think, you're gonna back low level slow CAS if you're an Arizona representative. Because the A-10 is the only aircraft in inventory that can do it. The USAF is probably never gonna issue a contract for a replacement, and if they ever did chances are the squadrons would stay in Arizona. But the priority was keeping the A-10 in service for as many decades as possible. Based on location. Not actual capabilities.
                >I don't really understand the asshurt at a senile cross party boomer whose dead
                He was like 90-95% Republican in terms of voting record but had a huge PR work done for the "maverick" branding. It was actually baffling to hear the same people who decried him as a racist, angry old man in '08 then completely rehabilitate him as a noble bipartisan when 9 times out of 10 he was doing the things democrats hate. Which is it, you frickers? The Bush Jr. redemption actually surprised me less.
                Also he made a bunch of money from bank fraud.

            • 3 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              >bomb shit with PGMS from medium level.
              By your own logic this would put them into the SAM bubbles.
              It would be the toss bombing that would increase survival as Russia doesn't seem to be using a ton of AAA.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                >By your own logic this would put them into the SAM bubbles

                yes but the logic of going to medium level is that NATO electronic warfare (including by Tornado EW versions in Italian/German service) and SEAD (also can/was done by Tornados) can clown on Russian SAMs so badly that its safer risking them than getting in the weeds where you are at risk of MANPADs and AAA. Being good flying at 50ft is nice but if you can do the same mission at 20,000ft you should.

                the 90s upgrades of the IDS and GR4 also added a bunch of missiles that could give provide more stand-off than even the most spirited tossing like Storm Shadow, KEPD and Brimstone but ofc a Paveway can be tossed a lot further and easier than a 1000lb iron bomb.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                I forgot to mention Sea Eagle but Ukraine has enough ways to blow up Russian ships and also the B model British Tornadoes are long gone from this world. German IDSs only had Kormoran which wasnt very good.

              • 3 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                [...]

                >low level attacks are vulnerable to AAA

                You might want to use your samegayging for a seance with John McCaine's ghost and reveal this stunning info.

                The entire point is that Tornados were able to spoof and ARM Iraqi/soviet SAMs like they didn't even exist and only came unstuck due to Iraq having the largest network of modern AAA guns in the world. Russia doesn't even have 148 Tunguska in the entire Crimean peninsula let alone at every airbase (if they did they wouldn't have their refineries getting smoked by DIY drones) and even then they would have had barely any casualties without toss bombing.

                Not that any of this is relevant to modern Tornado IDSs since its not 1991 anymore and they can bomb shit with PGMS from medium level.

                https://i.imgur.com/F5ZBu54.jpeg

                >Ah yes a strike fighter that suffered the highest casualty rate against dogshit Iraqi AA during the Gulf War

                frick off with this reddit pop history.

                They were lost by ground fire from Iraq's comprehensively massive AAA gun network flying against the hardest most unsuppressed targets. When the RAF and RSAF Tornados attacked Habbaniya (main fighter base outside of Baghdad) on the first night it was protected by 148 radar layed AAA batteries, plus an SA-6, SA-8 and a Roland missile (a modern NATO point defense SAM) which the strike force flew directly over the TEL of as they put cluster munitions on the runway.

                There's also the fact that almost all Tornado losses were from toss bombing not low level use of runway cratering munitions. The toss bombing was a well meaning but flawed tactic designed to suppress Iraqi AAA positions the idea was they would have standoff range from the guns and toss airburst fused 1000lb slicks onto the AAA revetments causing a headache for the Iraqi gunners. The problem was that with their radars jammed by Skyshadow DECM pods the Iraqis put up a traditional WW2 style layer of flak focused at 300-400ft and the toss would bring the Tornados into the heavy flank area causing either them getting shred by 23mm or getting disorientated doing the toss with flank shutters down and crashing. Only like 2 RAF Tornados were lost in level flight one was one that got hit by MANPAD flying in daylight off target and a JP-233 equipped Tornado that crashed while evading a missile from either a Mig-25 or a Roland.

                You'd know all this if you actually read the declassified after action reports Black person.

                based effort posting anon, thank you for your service

        • 4 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          So basically, you've agreed with the guy, and are seething that he's right.

        • 4 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          I'm sure the hohols will do much better with them.

    • 4 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      tfw the MW-1s are still lying around despite being decommissioned.
      just imagining a Tornado dropping a MW-1 load unto a russian convoy gives me a raging boner

    • 4 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Italy still has some. I work on a base in Kuwait they fly out of.

  2. 4 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Why do you think this will work when all the previous "only ways" failed miserably? The history of the ukrainian army with western gear would seem to indicate that the Ukrainians will take their shiny western aircraft and immediately nosedive them into the nearest minefield.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Post toilet Pajeet/VatBlack person.

  3. 4 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >My 105 IQ take is that the only way Ukraine can take back territory (without running down its manpower) is by establishing enough air dominance to OBLITERATE Russian lines from the air before assaulting them (rinse, repeat).

    The other (much slower) way to do it is to ensure that continuing to occupy that territory remains unprofitable. Sunk cost fallacy eventually wears off.

    • 4 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Russians love to suffer for their pride. They'll eat dirt before they give up the occupied territories willingly.

      Also there's always the chance China starts supplying weapons to Russia and then attrition goes out the window.

      • 4 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        That would be bad business for China in the long run and I doubt that they want more negative attention before they do their Taiwan invasion.

        • 4 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          >btfoing their primary global rival is le bad ok
          sure thing cletus

          • 4 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            Ukraine is the primary global rival of China?

            • 4 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              Are you professionally stupid, or do you just larp as stupid on the weekends?

        • 4 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          If Russia looks like it's going to collapse internally then Xi or whoever's in charge of China might change their mind. China clearly doesn't care about maintaining Russia's gains in Ukraine, but they absolutely don't want a liberal/anti-war revolution/government in Russia.

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            >If Russia looks like it's going to collapse internally

            Free Eastern Military District Meat and direct Arctic access. Sure, they're both legacy Reds in Moscow & Beijing, but it's a bald-faced criminal enterprise both ways, and something for nothing will always be as much a temptation as the ideological 'muh final defeat of capitalism'. Unseating 'dollar hegemony' is all well and good until you're staring down demographic death slide, Giga Subprime, and being the principle beneficiary of the 'neoliberal rules based order' of globalism facilitating low cost safe shipping of export goods and energy imports at a reasonable price.

  4. 4 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Its less about airfares and more about all the infrastructure needed to keep an effective air force.

  5. 4 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Okay Op, for a little window into what it's like to organise something like this, check out the whole saga around Australia trying to supply Ukraine with Fa/18s.

    If Ukraine had just said "yes" they would already have a fleet of them in the air and helping liberate the last bits of kherson.

    • 4 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      So what happened?

      • 4 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Ukraine said "no"

        • 4 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          If this was before the F-16 promise perhaps they thought they'd be stuck with just really worn out Hornets (a dead platform). But if the F-16s perform well in suppressing Russian AA up to drop distance perhaps they'll decide they need a bunch of bomb trucks.

          • 4 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            they're worn out and when they have better offers on the table it makes no sense to get a huge logistics chain up and running for a few dozen planes that could best be described as 'expendable'

            They have enough F16's promised that training pilots is likely to be the bottleneck for the next year or two, there's no sense devoting some of that to the FA/18s

          • 4 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            It wasn't. Another thing worth remembering:
            Australia giving fa/18s is less of a logistics strain than the f-16s, and countries like Finland would be provided the perfect conditions to offload *their* fa/18s and it snowballs from there.

            It's largely considered to be a blunder that Australia listened to the Ukrainian who said "No".

            • 4 weeks ago
              Anonymous

              Seems like F-18 has the huge advantage of being able to land on roads. Plus lots of ready to retire surplus out there. Perhaps training could be done in Finland in Russian (meaning the Ukrainian recruits don't need to learn English).

              So what is Ukraine's logic?

              • 4 weeks ago
                Anonymous

                A guy said "No". Australian analysts later decried a lack of doubt in the group sent to Ukraine to propose the idea. More Ukes came to Australia to check things out, but from what anyone can tell things went exactly nowhere.

                There were so (bad) journalistic reports that tried to figure out what had happened, but we really have no idea. The fact of the matter is, fa/18's are second only to the Gripen in terms of suitability in this war, and there's frick all gripen available.

  6. 4 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    >I really struggle to understand why this isn't already happening.
    it is already happening, though

  7. 4 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Ukrainian logic must be to show results with the F-16s they got from Europe, then hope that the US gives them a bunch more F16s. In the meantime build airstrips, train crews, develop tactics...

  8. 4 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Go to the AMARC Boneyard on Google Earth.
    Everything west of Kolb can be returned to service in 2 weeks (not all at once obviously) while anything east of Kolb is being scrapped and used for spare parts (if serviceable)

  9. 4 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Russians are only armed with shovels so we just need to arm the Ukrainians with slightly longer shovels. Once they have the reach advantage they'll win easily.

  10. 4 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    crazy how they casually dump 5th gen fighters on Israel’s lap at a 70% discount but not try giving ukraine an edge in air force while fighting Russians

    • 4 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      70% discount is still better than the 100% discount + nonstop ungrateful whinging that the Ukrainians offer.

      • 4 weeks ago
        Anonymous

        Nobody respects you so that is a moot point

        • 4 weeks ago
          Anonymous

          Fantastic to hear. This means the US can stop sending billions in arms to Israel and stop using its own assets to defend them from Iranian missile attacks.

          • 3 weeks ago
            Anonymous

            You say that, but that basically just means Israel becomes a hostile regional power to the US and starts fricking with our interests - namely Turkey.
            Being a hegemon sucks, especially in the way the US goes about it. Everyone has to be bribed to keep in line, when in reality everyone should have to pay the US in order to stop us from couping their asses.

    • 4 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      ZOG regime pls understand

  11. 4 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    F-35 production means there are about 800 workable surplus F-16s available by the time the war ends

    • 4 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      Doesn't seem like the US wants to give any directly because of optics. Maybe they can launder them through Denmark/Netherlands/Norway...

  12. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    more planes should be left dirty. looks good

  13. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    I need more Tornado pics.

    • 3 weeks ago
      Anonymous

      also some wienerpit audio. War seems a lot more comfy with a navigator in the rear wienerpit to keep you company.

      ?t=206

  14. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    I hate the be the bearer of bad news, but unless Western Europe/NATO/US want to finally deal with this issue they are going to have to get boots on the ground and start ruling the air over Ukraine. Simple as.

  15. 3 weeks ago
    Anonymous

    Better maintained and higher surplus than Russia is all that is needed

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