How can Ukraine retake the donbass?

The parts of the donbass held by Russia/separatists since 2014 include several major urban areas which could be used defensively by the Russians.
Bakhmut had a pre-war population of 71k and Mariupol had 425k. Both were extremely costly for the Russians to take, even Mariupol which they encircled a while before fully taking control of it.
Donetsk, Luhansk, Makiivka, Horlivka and Alchevsk had a combined pre-war population of about 2 million. If Russians defend them like Ukrainians defended Bakhmut, and if Ukraine suffers similar casualties to Russians in Bakhmut for the same area being captured, the Ukrainians will probably lose literally over a million soldiers, and maybe over 2 million. That's only some of the urban areas in the region, so a million is a very low estimate.
I'm making quite a few assumptions here, and I don't know what I'm talking about. It just seems like Ukraine will be forced to fight a monumentally large uphill battle to retake the urban areas of the donbass, unless they can cut them off like they did to Kherson, but I don't see how that's possible when the areas are so close to each other and there are no large bodies of water making resupply difficult.

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  1. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    Siege, cut off the water and energy.
    Wait 6 months.

  2. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    They will take them at the negotiating table.

  3. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    Negotiation table or, unironically, siege by cauldroning them. I don't see ukies fighting urban battles, they way smarter than that (see Izium, Kherson, etc)

    • 10 months ago
      Anonymous

      This. There's no way Ukies are going to engage in the urban combat on this scale. It would be incredible bloody mess.
      I can easily see rest of LDPR forces surrendering when/if Russian army is unable to support them properly.

      • 10 months ago
        Anonymous

        >There's no way Ukies are going to engage in the urban combat on this scale.
        As much as we clown on Russia for being shit they actually do have the ability to manufacture artillery shells and bombs well outside of Ukrainian strike range and then transport them in via rail. All of Ukraine's domestic artillery/bomb production capability is within range of Russian assets and can not be 100% relied upon. Shell donations from other countries are plentiful and valued but honestly aren't enough for this type of battle. For this reason alone I think Ukraine will want to avoid prolonged urban warfare at any cost.

        But fighting in the open, on the other hand? Ukraine will go for that shit. Dropping a GMLRS or two on a particularly stubborn trench is far better value than dumping 300 155mm shells on one city block.

  4. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    Surround and cut off supplies. Allow an exit corridor for civilians and disarmed militants to Russia.

  5. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    If the supply situation becomes untenable through strategic long range shaping fires on shit like the Kerch bridge and the rail lines connecting Dumbass with russia then the Ukies just have to wait them out while mustering enough force to keep said supply links from getting repaired. Another goodwill gesture from the Plywood Marshall of sufficient size would also be enough to potentially destabilize the situation on the ruskie side to the point that a bigass armored push could dislodge the ruskies from their positions and cut the occupied territory into more manageable chunks. Wildcat options like the RDK actually causing a civil war inside russia proper that leads to them pulling out of Ukraine are also possible.

  6. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    >If Russians defend them like Ukrainians defended Bakhmut

    That's a huge if. Russians are not going to hold that well on foreign territory the way Ukranians fight for their home clay.

    • 10 months ago
      Anonymous

      >That's a huge if
      I guess so

      Negotiation table or, unironically, siege by cauldroning them. I don't see ukies fighting urban battles, they way smarter than that (see Izium, Kherson, etc)

      I don't see how it's possible to cauldron them given that the urban areas are quite big and not far from each other, especially going along the line from Donetsk to Luhansk. It's not like Izyum.

      They can't. They don't have enough people for full scale attack now. They don't have enoug equipment, planes, nothing. London is trying to recruit africans and arabs to fight there against russia. Ukraine is slowly collapsing, without outside support they are done. The big question is - who will pay for all this mess? Answer is - mainly europen taxpayers..

      Finally my taxes are being spent wisely

      Oh no! Not our taxes! Why they could be used to repair our roads or build schools. Or spread LGBT propaganda in Russia.

      >who will pay
      not related, please go to /misc/ to have this conversation

  7. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    They can't. They don't have enough people for full scale attack now. They don't have enoug equipment, planes, nothing. London is trying to recruit africans and arabs to fight there against russia. Ukraine is slowly collapsing, without outside support they are done. The big question is - who will pay for all this mess? Answer is - mainly europen taxpayers..

    • 10 months ago
      Anonymous

      Finally my taxes are being spent wisely

    • 10 months ago
      Anonymous

      Oh no! Not our taxes! Why they could be used to repair our roads or build schools. Or spread LGBT propaganda in Russia.

    • 10 months ago
      Anonymous

      You guys keep saying that ukraine is about to collapse and shit but how come it never gets translated into genuine battlefield gains for you? Do you know how much territory Russia has gained in the last five months? 0.1%. If ukraine was collapsing, then shouldn't you be able to conquer more territory than pretty much nothing?

      • 10 months ago
        Anonymous

        Stop replying to obvious bait you stupid frick

      • 10 months ago
        Anonymous

        It's funny, that even after billions of dollars spent, equipment destroyed, lives of foreign merceneries.. russia is still pushing. How many times was written in press they don't have missiles, people, money.. these idiotic threads by glowies. Hopefully people see through this.
        Both sides are lying. West is trying to save face and trying to come up with a plan, what to do with that bad actor zelensky. Maybe he will end up like saddam..

        • 10 months ago
          Anonymous

          https://i.imgur.com/nkY8inc.jpg

          They cant. They have been trying to in their "Anti Terrorist Operation" since 2014 and failing miserably. 9 years and counting and still didn't manage to liberate anything.

          shitposting here is not going to save Russia, Hassan
          Iran is next BTW. The EU is no longer contain the US fricking you up after you betrayed us.

          • 10 months ago
            Anonymous

            Not the same person, but okay. What has Iran done to the U.S. anyway? Why the rage?

            • 10 months ago
              Anonymous

              Not too much really. Kinda sent a few arms shipments to Shi-ite militias that took a few potshots at US soldiers in various theaters from Iraq, a mix of African countries, and Palestinians. But ever since the Iranian Revolution, Iran's kinda been a wierd ally here and there for us. Republicans love him because they can launder CIA drug money and torpedo Jimmy Carter for them, and Democrats can use them for 'muh global peace and denuclearization' bullshit. If anything, they'd show more competence and gumption as compared to your average Saudi, but Bush Sr. sold the US out to them too long ago to switch gears.
              >Verification not required

        • 10 months ago
          Anonymous

          >Russia spent 20 years modernizing its military and 1.2 trillion dollars
          >Ukrainians only had 80 billion worth of NATO scraps
          Ack!

      • 10 months ago
        Anonymous

        NTA, and I agree that the whole "and you're unable to capitalize on this to accomplish your goals" is a pretty concise counterargument to this vatnik talking point.
        The late Umberto Eco made a list of fourteen common features of fascist ideology, and this one's #8:
        > The enemy is both strong and weak. “By a continuous shifting of rhetorical focus, the enemies are at the same time too strong and too weak.”
        You know, like how Russia is engaged in an existential threat against all of the Global West, despite there being no NATO boots on the ground because they're contemptibly weak and decadent and about to collapse from the inside, yet (somehow) still able to bully the invincible Russian people.

        • 10 months ago
          Anonymous

          Russia has been a recividist fascist autocracy since Putin achieved power, yeah.
          They're ghetto Nazi Germany, with even the Moscow apartment bombings as their Reichstag fire.

    • 10 months ago
      Anonymous

      >London is trying to recruit africans and arabs to fight there against russia.
      Perfidious Albion strikes again. I should've known since those bucktooth mongrels hold grudges against noble Russian bear.
      Thanks for pointing that out. I'll be sure to check Intel Slava Z and RT for further development.

    • 10 months ago
      Anonymous

      Yuropoor here, I'm happy to contribute!

    • 10 months ago
      Anonymous

      >The big question is - who will pay for all this mess? Answer is - mainly europen taxpayers..
      my contribute, even if humble, will help Ukraine.
      best money ever spent in taxes

      • 10 months ago
        Anonymous

        This. Compared to any groups the US has armed, the Ukie's are bang for your buck

    • 10 months ago
      Anonymous

      >who will pay for all this mess?
      Russian assets worth billions of USD have been seized by the civilized world due to this war.
      Ukraine will be rebuilt, and Russia is going to foot the bill whether it likes it or not.

      • 10 months ago
        Anonymous

        That's maybe of the most ironic things of this war. Russia wanted to conquer Ukraine out of greed, but they're going to end up paying for it all in the end.
        The West has seized billions and billions of russian assets that will be used for Ukraine in one way or another.

  8. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    Calling it now: Crimea will get retaken before major assaults in the Donbass.
    If the Ukranians can push to the Sea of Azov, they can cut rail transit to anything south and west of their salient. Russian logistics are so heavily reliant on rail that they'd probably have to withdraw forces from the bits of territory they have left in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
    Once they have a bunch of troops bottled up on the Crimean peninsula, they're all being supplied by a single artery over the Kerch bridge, which is known to be vulnerable. Taking that out leaves very few options for the RF: Airdrops (in an area where the Ukrainians may be able to get close enough with AA measures to make it a turkey shoot) or sea transit (on cargo freighters that have a lot less protection than, say, the Moskva). Third option: the RuAF can hoof it back home and try to take advantage of the land connection and dramatically shorter frontlines to dig in in Donetsk/Luhansk, where they've had years to erect more favorable defenses and logistics.
    I'm betting that Putin will be desperate enough to save face that he'll go for that third option ,and try to play it off as "my genius plan was to exchange Crimea for recognition of the Donbass all along". And because it's heavily fortified and close to their rail supply, he'll huff the last of his hopium reserves and convince himself that he can bog things down long enough to eke out some sort of negotiated settlement.
    By that point, the F-16s will have arrived in force, and my guess is that the AFU is going to get some serious practice in SEAD. So there's your how: get the Russians to dig into fortified trench systems and then bomb them from the air with impunity.

    • 10 months ago
      Anonymous

      >Putin will be desperate enough to save face that he'll go for that third option ,and try to play it off as "my genius plan was to exchange Crimea for recognition of the Donbass all along"
      Can see that happening.

      • 10 months ago
        Anonymous

        Yeah -- almost any other rational actor would have run the numbers and decided to cut their losses by now, but Putin is aware that if he pulls back to internationally-recognized borders his political career will end immediately (possibly by suicide from three bullets to the back of the head). Drawing out the conflict remains costly in lives, materiel, and economic damage, but for Putin specifically it holds out the possibility of a lucky break or Hail Mary play on which he might capitalize to get his neck out of the noose.

    • 10 months ago
      Anonymous

      >"my genius plan was to exchange Crimea for recognition of the Donbass all along"
      Putin has gambled so heavily on Crimea, and it's so important in the minds of the Russian elites and so important for their navy that he'll get coup'd. There is no way to save face over such a failure. Otherwise, I think you make a lot of sense. I doubt that Russians will give up Crimea without any fight at all but it could be a very short one and any soldiers stationed there could probably evacuate east if shtf even if they have to cross the sea in small boats like at Dunkirk. I just think all this because Ukrainians probably can't cross into Crimea very quickly, there will be mines and shit, and Russians will have some defensible positions on the other side of the water.
      It's interesting to hear someone say that the F16s are meant for the Donbass because it seems like everyone expects them to be used for the liberation of Crimea

      if any of those big cities comes close to being surrounded a lot of troops will probably just drop everything and run away.
      then local commanders will set up evacuation corridors for civilians and negotiate the surrender of conscripts. any hardcore troops left will probably be in the 3 digits, maybe a little more than that but still very few. they can be hunted down house by house.
      I dont even support Ukraine btw, just being realistic.

      >if any of those big cities comes close to being surrounded a lot of troops will probably just drop everything and run away.
      I don't see them fighting hard when they're surrounded on 3 sides and have a convenient corridor to escape to safety but the problem is that I also don't see Ukrainians surrounding them on 3 sides in some of these larger towns and cities for all the reasons I've mentioned already.

      • 10 months ago
        Anonymous

        > Putin has gambled so heavily on Crimea, and it's so important in the minds of the Russian elites and so important for their navy that he'll get coup'd.
        While I wouldn't say it's absolutely certain (Putin is pretty savvy on his defensive game as autocrats go), I agree that it's a very high probability. That's actually one factor in my line of thought that Crimea would come first: taking Crimea is likely to remove Putin, and whoever replaces him is going to want out of this mess ASAP.
        > I doubt that Russians will give up Crimea without any fight at all
        Again, I agree, but the assumption is that the Ukrainians will need to fight for it at all. Cutting the supply lines from the railways north of the isthmus + the rail on Kerch bridge means the entire peninsula is logistically strangled. At that point, the AFU can just sit there and take a huge prize without firing (much of) a shot -- unless the RuAF can find some alternate way to supply ammo, food, fuel etc. to the troops in Sevastopol. On short notice. While being shot at.

  9. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    if any of those big cities comes close to being surrounded a lot of troops will probably just drop everything and run away.
    then local commanders will set up evacuation corridors for civilians and negotiate the surrender of conscripts. any hardcore troops left will probably be in the 3 digits, maybe a little more than that but still very few. they can be hunted down house by house.
    I dont even support Ukraine btw, just being realistic.

  10. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    They cant. They have been trying to in their "Anti Terrorist Operation" since 2014 and failing miserably. 9 years and counting and still didn't manage to liberate anything.

    • 10 months ago
      Anonymous

      Nice boomer meme homosexual

      • 10 months ago
        Anonymous

        https://i.imgur.com/nkY8inc.jpg

        They cant. They have been trying to in their "Anti Terrorist Operation" since 2014 and failing miserably. 9 years and counting and still didn't manage to liberate anything.

        Its true, and no amount of rage and cope will change that.

        • 10 months ago
          Anonymous

          Here's your Moskvitch, bro.

          • 10 months ago
            Anonymous

            Can you even import these into the u.s.? why is it that there are so many restrictions on importing foreign cars and guns? Is it really because the domestic manufacturers of both would go out of business?

            • 10 months ago
              Anonymous

              No idea, ask the Chinese.

              • 10 months ago
                Anonymous

                Sounds about right, seeing as how everything is made in China these days. I hear that Chinese made EVs are gonna flood the market soon here in the u.s. too.

              • 10 months ago
                Anonymous

                >I hear that Chinese made EVs are gonna flood the streets with inextinguishable fiery wrecks soon here in the u.s. too.
                ftfy

              • 10 months ago
                Anonymous

                kino

            • 10 months ago
              Anonymous

              >why is it that there are so many restrictions on importing foreign cars
              USA Mercedes had a grumpy-dumpy in the 1980s and bribed-I'm sorry """lobbied""" congress to ban private imports of cars less than 25 years old, because people realized they could import better mercs from the euro market for less than domestic dealerships would sell for
              There's also the 25% "chicken tax" tarrif which effectively killed light truck imports: it was ostensibly just another part of the trade conflict with France/West Germany in the 1960s, but may or may not have been a concession by Lyndon Johnson to an auto manufactuer union to not strike right before the next election (wanting him to do something about Volkswagen's growing market share, with their Type 2 vans/pickups being among various other vehicles affected by it). Either way, for whatever reason, it's still apparently being levied today.

            • 10 months ago
              Anonymous

              >Is it really because the domestic manufacturers of both would go out of business
              Yes It is primarily protectionism for large American or at least formerly American my multinationals.
              For example Ford doesn't want to have to to compete with some cheap no frills truck made for third world nations full of dirt roads that is easy to self maintain because such vehicle would likely become an overnight success amongst the middle and lower class working man

        • 10 months ago
          Anonymous

          >venezuela-news
          lmao

          • 10 months ago
            Anonymous

            I'm glad you found the picture funny, I laughed at first also, until I remembered that innocent Ukrainians are dying because their government is basically tyrannical at this point.

        • 10 months ago
          Anonymous

          In all seriousness: how old are you? Cause your pics are shit I only see literal baby boomers or ESLs posting.

  11. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    Capture Bilhorod and exchange it for Bombas.

  12. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    trade for belgorod

  13. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    What to do with the civilian population? How can they tell which of them are traitors and which just happen to be victims of the circumstances?

  14. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    Keep up the current Free Russian Legion shenanigans to sabotage Russian reinforcement, logistics and rail network.
    Push into Donbass (the frontline is still only a few k from the main city) and find a way to make lines crumble. The DPR fighters were used as Canon fodder in the first months of the war, there won't be much resistance with Russian troops cant help put.

  15. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    The only way they can take it is if they get support by local population and some Russian military units join their side. With the economic situation in Russia heading downhill it can happen really fast.

  16. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    >How will Ukraine ever retake Kherson

    • 10 months ago
      Anonymous

      Show me on the map where the large bodies of water are and how these cities can be completely cut off from Russia just by targeting a few pieces of infrastructure

      • 10 months ago
        Anonymous

        Just surround, cut roads and rails, and bomb anything that tries to go in or out.

        • 10 months ago
          Anonymous

          >Just surround
          Well that's the problem when a city is large and already surrounded by other urban areas. You can't just have an extremely long front line when your enemy on the other side of the line has great defensive coverage.

          • 10 months ago
            Anonymous

            You don't need frontline when you have mobile assets and good intel.

  17. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    Just shell the cities 24/7 until the separatists move to Russia.

  18. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    >/k/ - Weapons

  19. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    The most likely scenario is one similar to georgia. Both sides with claim their war goals on the indepdent zones, and there will be no territory change.

    Hybrid war is characterized by vauge objectives so all state actors involved can claim some sort of victory, the only peace is one where everyone wins.

  20. 10 months ago
    Anonymous

    you couldnt hold farmland in Afghanistan…

    >*90’s stitcom laugh tragic as a suicidal alcoholic vet hangs himself in the background*

    How the HELL-

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