How can Russia be out of rounds?

According to several Russian sources, including Wagner, but also mobiks, and now even a "A Just Russia" party functionary from the Rostov region.

Seems that Russia has expended most of their ammo and are now severely rationing

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1635259505008349186

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  1. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    Nobody
    Expected
    The
    War
    To
    Drag
    Out
    This
    Long.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      netwtdotl

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      After the second month Russia should have expected it. This is just the Iran-Iraq war but flatter terrain and with drones instead of MiG-25s and F-14s. That’s why all these “Two More Weeks” posts and articles are moronic, the stalemate won’t collapse because both sides are too moronic for modern mechanized warfare.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        The Ukrainians have moments of lucidity.

  2. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    i wouldn't worry about it
    they're stockpiling ammo most likely for some offensive actions later. i mean i'd like them to frick off back to russia too, but it's too good to be true imo.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      >stockpiling

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        that is some AMAZING nose art

        are americans allowed to paint on their HIMARS?

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        >How can Russia be out of rounds?
        They're not. They are probably not even running low all things considered, they just don't have the capacity to get them to the frontline because their logistics are so fricking shit and because of this lad

        They could have billions of rounds stored in some shitty bunker and it wouldn't change a thing.

        Also, while they proabably still have enough shells, most of their barrels are probably well past their lifetime and can't hit shit even if the crew was sober.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      I would make the oh so bold prediction that they are preparing for the perpetual and increasing arrivals of western tanks

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        By frittering away their few tanks and arty and manpower on disjointed attacks against dug-in Ukies?

        Well…okay.
        That makes about as much sense as anything else the Russkis have done in this “not-war”.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      >some offensive actions later
      anon, their offensive already happened.
      Vhuledar and bahkmut were stormed with either human waves or tanks and both got rekt.
      They lost alone in vhuledar 130 tanks in one battle and still could not take the city

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        >city
        More like a big village tbh

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          >big village
          more like a big pile of rubble tbh

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        >130 tanks
        36 tanks + 90-95ish other assorted pieces of armor.*

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      how many times are you going to use this line? when is this offensive happening? keeps getting delayed... 2 more weeks?

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      Why didn't they stockpile for the winter offensive then? Why did they send so many people and armor to die without adequate (for Russian army) fire support?

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      War isn't an RTS game. If you're stockpiling weapons that's not used and leading to your troops dying, then you'll have to rely on more experienced troops, which leads to relying on inexperienced troops, which leads to relying more on the few experienced troops you have left, which leads to relying more on inexperienced troops, which leads to your troops never being capable of doing anything because you're always playing catchup

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        but you aren't supposed to stockpile your resources in RTS either, anon. it's called floating and it's what people who are shit at macro does.

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          I think that is essentially what the previous anon was saying, they just said it all autistically. Don't stockpile your materials because it leads to a domino effect of defeat.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      no panic right?

      If Russia is losing, then why do kxhokxhols have no electricity?*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~

      its that sarcasm? because their electrical system is fine,. the terror bombings failed.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      >stockpiling ammo
      artillery shells sure but they are going to run out of guided missiles and drones

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      1.2 MEGASECONDS

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      You set off the bots lol

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        >hurr durr I just pretended to be moronic

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      > they're stockpiling ammo most likely for some offensive actions later
      They literally just did the offensive and nobody had an ammo lol.

      The rate that they are firing artillery is like 10% of what it was 10 months ago. They blew their load. All they have left is shit they inherited from the USSR, and then keeps getting sploded in transpo and storage.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      but anon, rationing artillery at this point in time will risk russia's loss of artillery superiority, and when russia loses that advantage, ukrainians make gains, sometimes BIGLY. they'll end up fighting for land they had just lost, how is that a good offensive strategy?

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      Their great winter offensive already happened anon. Their big success was almost half of Bahkmut, a few smaller villages around it and the failed assault on Vhuledar (while losing a ton of mbt and several tanks). Now all they can do is bunker down and wait for the Ukie spring offensive with all that western gear and fresh troops.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      >Read: in two to three months Russia will ape out again and spam 50-100 increasingly low tech missiles at Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      well they are stockpiling because of an offensive so much is true. just that its the coming ukrainian one. they know if they dont stockpile they will get yeeted out of crimea faster than they can yell cyka blyat

  3. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    If Russia is losing, then why do kxhokxhols have no electricity?*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~

  4. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    They're rounding down... Always round uP!!!!!!!!!!!!!;

    [
    GIVE ME A YES SIR YOU LOVELY HUMAN BEING

  5. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    I heard that russia said they have resources to conduct the war for 2 more years.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      ive heard russia saying a lot of things. almost all of it was bullshit, including their statement that them invading Ukraine was just western hysteria. so take everything they said with a huge grain of salt.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      this war could never go on forever, and it will never end poorly!!!

      VICTORY IS ASSURED GENTLEMEN, TRUST ME WITH YOUR LIVES. I AM YOUR SAVIOR.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      I heard that Russia said that their economy is booming because of sanctions and they are better than ever. Just now entering the age of prosperity with their numerous friends that are ready to challenge the west.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        Really nice of russia to previously trade with others despite it weakening Russian and strengthening others, Russia for greatest humantiarian power ever and here we are resisting their great humanitarian efforts.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        >with their numerous friends that are ready to challenge the west
        Like Kazakhstan?

        [...]

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      >Russia said
      That's the biggest proof I need to know they don't.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      "da comrade we have two years worth of ammo in storage and i am 100% not lying to you like before nor did i sell it off or let it rust away... like before" pic related

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        The west estimated they had 25% of their 152mm stocks depleted before HIMARs showed up and put an end to their artillery spam. That also meant that in theory they had enough to spam for 2 years total.
        But turns out having "stock" and having stock are two different things.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        >one picture of a damaged conserve
        next you'll post one dead Russian and claim that all Russians are dead. that's how moronic you are

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          >of a damaged conserve

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          oh that just 2 examples
          that's just 3
          oh that's just 4
          5
          6
          7
          8
          9
          10
          11
          12
          13
          14
          15
          16
          17
          18
          19
          "lol that's Ukraine" (the cope begins)
          "no you lie"
          "no"
          "NO NO NO"
          "Black person" (a vatnig runs away)

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          >no need to worry comrades, only 1 box of ammo went bad for no reason, the rest is fine

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      their plan now is just to get into a frozen conflict until Trump win 2024 election and give them Ukraine in "the best deal ever".

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      If they don't plan on fighting any more wars in this century or the next, sure. Guess those parades in Warsaw and Paris are gonna have to wait.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      russia lies when it opens it's mouth

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      (You)
      >I heard that russia said [some more moronic bullshit]
      (You) "heard that, huh? Feel free to post sauce. Maybe if (You) fist Lavrov's butthole and fish around in it for a while you'll come up with a turd nugget or something, probably formed from congealed monke semen.

  6. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    I kinda think this is a trap and they want to bait Ukraine into an attack since they can’t advance any more.
    Or they’re really out of round.

  7. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    Yes, its home run now, just two more weeks this time they WILL run out

  8. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    What are the chances saboteurs inside Russia destroyed a couple ammo plants? How many ammo plants / factories can Russia even have? I'm sure the glowies know the exact number but taking down one or three of them would put a serious wrench in their resupply

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      According to this anti-putinist their factories can churn out 800k shells a year (2000 a month), it's a dubious number at best and that's when they spend 0 resources on anything else like tank shells. It might explain why they've imported Iranian tank shells.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        >800k shells a year (2000 a month)
        i'm not a mathemortician but this somehow seems off

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          Meant 2000 per day.

  9. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    There's no more telling sign you're winning than when you have to hope and speculate daily your enemy is running out of everything

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      It show you're clearly in control of the situation and not desperate and at the mercy of your enemy.

  10. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    I suspects is less of a supply and more of a logistics issue. That's still bad for them, mind you.
    Also Wagner supply shortages could also be because of political infighting, so there's that.

  11. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    Do any Ukrainian sources confirm less Russian shellibg at the frontline?
    AFAIK not.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      I think it's against their national interest to admit shit eased up or the urgency wrt aid would fade

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      They've been saying that Russian shelling has been decreasing since Severodonetsk. With obvious flare ups from time to time but nothing has come even close to what shelling was at that point.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      Running donations to Ukies and working with some NATO Logistics morons.

      Had a lenghty series of posts written but who the frick would even read that lmao. So here the short version:
      The picture is incredibly muddy, lots of fog of war and conflicting messages. If you do an aggregate of all info, it looks like this.
      - Russia increased shell manufacturing significantly and is further trying to ramp up with diminishing results
      - Since September last year, shell expenditure is slowly but continously decreasing, the current average is hovering around 1/4th of the hottest phase of last spring & summer.
      - Know a unit that fought around Popasna and is now close to Bakhmut, quote "Bakhmut artillery is a joke when compared to Popasna."
      - Quality of shelling is increasingly unequal. Relatively high precision drone adjusted fires one day, 1950's shell of which half doesn't explode and the other half nails the neighboring kindergarten the other day.
      - There is an element of RU psyops to this, most likely the current shell hunger is not just a genuine lack, but also stockpiling
      - But the situation is probably much worse than RU most likely acknowledges internally

      (cont.)

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        - Most interesting aspect is Prigozins claim that "The factories are full of shells" vs. various low level RU officials and officers "There are no shells, everything's fricked." Would be very interesting to see where those two different claims come from.
        - Across the frontline there are orders to converse shells, they are enforced by very limited shell allocation. Exceptions to this are units around Avdiivka, Vuhledar and Bakhmut, but even they are basically on a diet, when compared to last year
        - Massive issues with barrel replacements and integration of LNR/DNR artillery with the 3rd(!) big switch between calibers happening last year.
        - Funniest bit of info, but unconfirmed: Russia is facing massive internal logistical issues. Selection and transport of refurbishment is handled by two actors, refurbishment by another, transport to storage by yet another. None of these actors communicate with one another. Through a game of telephone, statements like "120.000 shells present, 25.000 fit for fast refurbishment" turn into "120.000 shells refurbished & ready for pickup, 25.000 shells further shells reached the plant yesterday." Multiple times completely unfit shells scheduled for liquidation were delivered to refurbishment plants, while fit shells were liquidated.
        - Ukraine is facing massive shell hunger as well and even worse, barrel and equipment wear. Saddest loss so far are the Pions for me, they barely function anymore.

        tl;dr:
        Ukie frontline grunts complain and see doom and gloom, as a frontline grunt does. If you zoom out a bit, Russias shelling decreased in quality and quantity significantly. Why? I'd say 70% deficit, 30% stockpiling.

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          >- Most interesting aspect is Prigozins claim that "The factories are full of shells" vs. various low level RU officials and officers "There are no shells, everything's fricked." Would be very interesting to see where those two different claims come from.

          i remember a thread on WW1 years back, some anon was saying that the cause of supply issues for front line units on the western front was last-mile delivery. factors such as mainly horse-based transportation, primitive low capacity train and motor transportation, inhospitable terrain and hostile interdiction all created a severe bottleneck. and i'm pretty sure that's basically the case here in ukraine except that HIMARS is creating a 70km "last-mile delivery" zone where supply dumps spontaneously combust which is frankly insane, WW1 artillery at max range was in the 9-12km range. so that's how you can reconcile factories and warehouses maxed out inventory and shell shortage at the front. and also russians being shit at logistics.

          • 1 year ago
            Anonymous

            >Chinese factory workers
            >Liveleak watermark

            Frick you, anon, I wasn't expecting wholesome.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        - Most interesting aspect is Prigozins claim that "The factories are full of shells" vs. various low level RU officials and officers "There are no shells, everything's fricked." Would be very interesting to see where those two different claims come from.
        - Across the frontline there are orders to converse shells, they are enforced by very limited shell allocation. Exceptions to this are units around Avdiivka, Vuhledar and Bakhmut, but even they are basically on a diet, when compared to last year
        - Massive issues with barrel replacements and integration of LNR/DNR artillery with the 3rd(!) big switch between calibers happening last year.
        - Funniest bit of info, but unconfirmed: Russia is facing massive internal logistical issues. Selection and transport of refurbishment is handled by two actors, refurbishment by another, transport to storage by yet another. None of these actors communicate with one another. Through a game of telephone, statements like "120.000 shells present, 25.000 fit for fast refurbishment" turn into "120.000 shells refurbished & ready for pickup, 25.000 shells further shells reached the plant yesterday." Multiple times completely unfit shells scheduled for liquidation were delivered to refurbishment plants, while fit shells were liquidated.
        - Ukraine is facing massive shell hunger as well and even worse, barrel and equipment wear. Saddest loss so far are the Pions for me, they barely function anymore.

        tl;dr:
        Ukie frontline grunts complain and see doom and gloom, as a frontline grunt does. If you zoom out a bit, Russias shelling decreased in quality and quantity significantly. Why? I'd say 70% deficit, 30% stockpiling.

        interesting, thanks

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        - Most interesting aspect is Prigozins claim that "The factories are full of shells" vs. various low level RU officials and officers "There are no shells, everything's fricked." Would be very interesting to see where those two different claims come from.
        - Across the frontline there are orders to converse shells, they are enforced by very limited shell allocation. Exceptions to this are units around Avdiivka, Vuhledar and Bakhmut, but even they are basically on a diet, when compared to last year
        - Massive issues with barrel replacements and integration of LNR/DNR artillery with the 3rd(!) big switch between calibers happening last year.
        - Funniest bit of info, but unconfirmed: Russia is facing massive internal logistical issues. Selection and transport of refurbishment is handled by two actors, refurbishment by another, transport to storage by yet another. None of these actors communicate with one another. Through a game of telephone, statements like "120.000 shells present, 25.000 fit for fast refurbishment" turn into "120.000 shells refurbished & ready for pickup, 25.000 shells further shells reached the plant yesterday." Multiple times completely unfit shells scheduled for liquidation were delivered to refurbishment plants, while fit shells were liquidated.
        - Ukraine is facing massive shell hunger as well and even worse, barrel and equipment wear. Saddest loss so far are the Pions for me, they barely function anymore.

        tl;dr:
        Ukie frontline grunts complain and see doom and gloom, as a frontline grunt does. If you zoom out a bit, Russias shelling decreased in quality and quantity significantly. Why? I'd say 70% deficit, 30% stockpiling.

        Because I'm drunk, bored and a homosexual that promised to drop some optics chickened out a few more """insider""" information. This bit is what is circulated in mid-level NATO circles.Could be completely wrong:

        - Russia is able to refurbish up to 1000 tanks a year
        - That is in absolutely perfect conditions, with every refurbishment working out and refurbishment being the absolute bare minimum
        - Most recent numbers suggest more like 350~ tanks of all shapes and sizes per year
        - Tank production is a fricking mystery and not even Russians really know what's happening
        - UVZ is fudging production numbers by circle delivering tanks
        - UVZ is also "delivering" new tanks which are tanks they were sent for repair
        - Still, the UVZ shenanigans are a small
        - Russias longterm storages are at least 30% depleted by now, this seems a low number until...
        - Only about 50% of all tanks appear to be salvagable
        - Russia has lost more than half of its starting fleet of all T-72 variants

        Next post is on Ukie manpower and ammo.

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          - Most interesting aspect is Prigozins claim that "The factories are full of shells" vs. various low level RU officials and officers "There are no shells, everything's fricked." Would be very interesting to see where those two different claims come from.
          - Across the frontline there are orders to converse shells, they are enforced by very limited shell allocation. Exceptions to this are units around Avdiivka, Vuhledar and Bakhmut, but even they are basically on a diet, when compared to last year
          - Massive issues with barrel replacements and integration of LNR/DNR artillery with the 3rd(!) big switch between calibers happening last year.
          - Funniest bit of info, but unconfirmed: Russia is facing massive internal logistical issues. Selection and transport of refurbishment is handled by two actors, refurbishment by another, transport to storage by yet another. None of these actors communicate with one another. Through a game of telephone, statements like "120.000 shells present, 25.000 fit for fast refurbishment" turn into "120.000 shells refurbished & ready for pickup, 25.000 shells further shells reached the plant yesterday." Multiple times completely unfit shells scheduled for liquidation were delivered to refurbishment plants, while fit shells were liquidated.
          - Ukraine is facing massive shell hunger as well and even worse, barrel and equipment wear. Saddest loss so far are the Pions for me, they barely function anymore.

          tl;dr:
          Ukie frontline grunts complain and see doom and gloom, as a frontline grunt does. If you zoom out a bit, Russias shelling decreased in quality and quantity significantly. Why? I'd say 70% deficit, 30% stockpiling.

          Running donations to Ukies and working with some NATO Logistics morons.

          Had a lenghty series of posts written but who the frick would even read that lmao. So here the short version:
          The picture is incredibly muddy, lots of fog of war and conflicting messages. If you do an aggregate of all info, it looks like this.
          - Russia increased shell manufacturing significantly and is further trying to ramp up with diminishing results
          - Since September last year, shell expenditure is slowly but continously decreasing, the current average is hovering around 1/4th of the hottest phase of last spring & summer.
          - Know a unit that fought around Popasna and is now close to Bakhmut, quote "Bakhmut artillery is a joke when compared to Popasna."
          - Quality of shelling is increasingly unequal. Relatively high precision drone adjusted fires one day, 1950's shell of which half doesn't explode and the other half nails the neighboring kindergarten the other day.
          - There is an element of RU psyops to this, most likely the current shell hunger is not just a genuine lack, but also stockpiling
          - But the situation is probably much worse than RU most likely acknowledges internally

          (cont.)

          Ukie manpower.

          - Situation much worse than publically discussed
          - Forced conscription on local level, as local governments try to meet quotas
          - But situation nowhere near catastrophic or what Russia claims, just worse than people think
          - Projecting strength is part of government policy
          - With current intensity, Ukraine can sustain the war for at least another year before expanding forced conscription
          - Big issue is payment, corruption is a serious problem and so is tedious beurocracy
          - Ukraine has a significant portion of its units not comitted. Numbers are not available on mid-level, but speculation is more than 35%
          - Rising discontent with Sirsky, Bakhmut is a serious issue for Ukrainian morale and Sirsky is blamed for most problems
          - Munition is bad. Really, really bad. Unclear how much is due to stockpiling, but shell allocation is atrocious. This includes mortar shells, manpads, AT weapons
          - Ukraine has at least 14 long range strike drones in storage by now
          - Domestic shell production is about 25k a month, if everything goes absolutely perfectly, there were issues with some type of filler, Ukies just called it "cotton"
          - Bohdana production is existent, but manufactury level and tiny
          - Ukies ran a psyop that a major Kharkiv tank plant returned to Kharkiv to repair tanks. This resulted in severe Russian longrange fire expenditure last year and some nasty civilian losses. Unclear if plant actually returned by now.

          Last bit, just because I don't want to compromise myself or my friends:
          Keep an eye on Turkish weapon deliveries, they have scheduled (not yet comitted) some hilarious stuff.

          • 1 year ago
            Anonymous

            [...]
            Because I'm drunk, bored and a homosexual that promised to drop some optics chickened out a few more """insider""" information. This bit is what is circulated in mid-level NATO circles.Could be completely wrong:

            - Russia is able to refurbish up to 1000 tanks a year
            - That is in absolutely perfect conditions, with every refurbishment working out and refurbishment being the absolute bare minimum
            - Most recent numbers suggest more like 350~ tanks of all shapes and sizes per year
            - Tank production is a fricking mystery and not even Russians really know what's happening
            - UVZ is fudging production numbers by circle delivering tanks
            - UVZ is also "delivering" new tanks which are tanks they were sent for repair
            - Still, the UVZ shenanigans are a small
            - Russias longterm storages are at least 30% depleted by now, this seems a low number until...
            - Only about 50% of all tanks appear to be salvagable
            - Russia has lost more than half of its starting fleet of all T-72 variants

            Next post is on Ukie manpower and ammo.

            Interesting insights. In your opinion, which side is likelier to burn out first if the war does indeed go on for another year or even more?

          • 1 year ago
            Anonymous

            I suppose we'll see if the bakhmut investment pays off with the counter-attack in the spring. Unfortunately making it such a resistance point isn't just a case of casualties and resources but also hyping it up in the political battle over who is winning. If Ukraine had not fought tooth and nail and it fell it'd have been a laughable "what fricking village?" like that other piddly ass town the Russians grabbed I can't remember the name of. Soledar? But it's been raised in stature such that when Ukraine loses it the chicken littles in the West will start to hem and haw that Ukraine should make peace concessions. And it's going to be capitalized on by the Russians something fierce.

            And before a dumb homosexual accuses me of being john from austinov oblast I'd love to see the vatniks fricked up. I'm just getting a bit more pessimistic. Not expecting the halcyon 2022 days of Crimea in Fall 2023 being plausible. I hope I am proven wrong and the Russian lines collapse with the push later this year.

            • 1 year ago
              Anonymous

              >But it's been raised in stature such that when Ukraine loses it the chicken littles in the West will start to hem and haw that Ukraine should make peace concessions.
              Those people absolutely don't matter, should Ukraine withdraw from Bakhmut this will be just Severodonetsk 2.0 in every aspect

          • 1 year ago
            Anonymous

            > Rising discontent with Sirsky, Bakhmut is a serious issue for Ukrainian morale and Sirsky is blamed for most problems
            Dismissed

            • 1 year ago
              Anonymous

              Sure. Go find some of the people on the ground around Bakhmut like Taras Chmut or Stus, or people that have spoken to them (Kofman, Rob Lee) and see what the opinion of Sirsky is.

              [...]
              Interesting insights. In your opinion, which side is likelier to burn out first if the war does indeed go on for another year or even more?

              That's incredibly hard to say. I think that Ukraine has the shorter stick on average, but also the larger potential. If the West ramped up ammo and arms production in March last year and then opened the floodgates, there wouldn't be much Russia could have done. If the West withdraws support in external factors - financing, arms and ammo, equipment for critical infrastructure etc. there isn't much Ukraine can do.

              I suppose we'll see if the bakhmut investment pays off with the counter-attack in the spring. Unfortunately making it such a resistance point isn't just a case of casualties and resources but also hyping it up in the political battle over who is winning. If Ukraine had not fought tooth and nail and it fell it'd have been a laughable "what fricking village?" like that other piddly ass town the Russians grabbed I can't remember the name of. Soledar? But it's been raised in stature such that when Ukraine loses it the chicken littles in the West will start to hem and haw that Ukraine should make peace concessions. And it's going to be capitalized on by the Russians something fierce.

              And before a dumb homosexual accuses me of being john from austinov oblast I'd love to see the vatniks fricked up. I'm just getting a bit more pessimistic. Not expecting the halcyon 2022 days of Crimea in Fall 2023 being plausible. I hope I am proven wrong and the Russian lines collapse with the push later this year.

              The counterattack is a contentious thing. Lots of uncomitted Ukrainian troops, yeah. But the trust in command including and above Brigade level is dubious to say the least. Zaluzhny is still enjoying a good reputation, but like I said Sirsky not so much.
              Some Russian sources are talking of a major offensive across the entire front - neither I nor the Ukies I speak to see this happening. We are talking most likely one or two localised offensives akin to Kharkiv.

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          [...]
          [...]
          Ukie manpower.

          - Situation much worse than publically discussed
          - Forced conscription on local level, as local governments try to meet quotas
          - But situation nowhere near catastrophic or what Russia claims, just worse than people think
          - Projecting strength is part of government policy
          - With current intensity, Ukraine can sustain the war for at least another year before expanding forced conscription
          - Big issue is payment, corruption is a serious problem and so is tedious beurocracy
          - Ukraine has a significant portion of its units not comitted. Numbers are not available on mid-level, but speculation is more than 35%
          - Rising discontent with Sirsky, Bakhmut is a serious issue for Ukrainian morale and Sirsky is blamed for most problems
          - Munition is bad. Really, really bad. Unclear how much is due to stockpiling, but shell allocation is atrocious. This includes mortar shells, manpads, AT weapons
          - Ukraine has at least 14 long range strike drones in storage by now
          - Domestic shell production is about 25k a month, if everything goes absolutely perfectly, there were issues with some type of filler, Ukies just called it "cotton"
          - Bohdana production is existent, but manufactury level and tiny
          - Ukies ran a psyop that a major Kharkiv tank plant returned to Kharkiv to repair tanks. This resulted in severe Russian longrange fire expenditure last year and some nasty civilian losses. Unclear if plant actually returned by now.

          Last bit, just because I don't want to compromise myself or my friends:
          Keep an eye on Turkish weapon deliveries, they have scheduled (not yet comitted) some hilarious stuff.

          seems like a genuine view from the Ukrainian side. I still think that a lot of opinions in "NATO circles" are cope, but that's understandable

          • 1 year ago
            Anonymous

            If anything, most NATO officer seem to overestimate Russia while at the same time being completely unable to understand how it works.
            So you get these supposedly competent people with extremely unrealistic assumptions and very wrong predictions such as:
            >Russia will roll over Ukraine
            >Russia will stop fighting when they suffer extensive casualties

            • 1 year ago
              Anonymous

              The answer to that has been given by a lot of commentators, but it ultimately boils down to sheer chaotic dishonesty. So many people lied at so many levels that not even Russia understands how capable (or rather, incapable) it really is. The US simply conditioned itself to assume the worst from a purported world power, while the Russians themselves shrugged and hoped for the best because they were said world power.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      Less arty, more mortars and tanks.

      Source:
      >innalegion

  12. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    >According to several Russian sources, including Wagner, but also mobiks, and now even a "A Just Russia" party functionary from the Rostov region.
    >Seems that Russia has expended most of their ammo and are now severely rationing
    >https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1635259505008349186

  13. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    what if the stockpiles are being hoarded for offensive action but not against Ukraine?

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      This is possible, the whole Georgia situation and shit is kicking off in Azerbaijan.

  14. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    [...]

    > NAFO estonian
    > Some Russian party man in Rostov

    huh?

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      VatnikGPT only has a small text bank to work with, please understand

  15. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    [...]

    to this NAFO Estonian homosexualon Twitter Russia is done in 2 weeks for the 20000th time
    >Its all so tiresome

  16. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    >How?
    >hundreds of blown ammo dumps by HIMARS in july-august
    >every "liberated" city is flattened with tens of thousands mindlessly launched shells
    I wonder why, its a mystery.

  17. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    >Its a sabotage
    >Enemy traitors fifthcolum nazi fascists placed shit into our pants
    >Russia cannot just be shit

  18. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    it doesn't make sense that they'd run out of rounds when they have access to the reserves of the Soviet Union, North Korea and Iran

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      Doesn't it?

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        damn that's some tasty looking cannelloni

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        >I crave the F O R B I D D E N L A S A G N A

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        Thought it was lasagna from the thumbnail

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        looks pretty tasty for MRE

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        I still have no idea what caliber are these rounds. Any idea anons?

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        bad shells or good lasagna?

        this pic gives me heartburn. can’t handle rich food anymore

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      >Soviet Union
      a lot of those shells were inherited by their states in the east
      >North Korea
      we'll see. i'm not really biting my tongue.
      >Iran
      ironically, you'll find iranian shells more often used by ukraine.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        >east
        meant west but east is also sorta accurate

  19. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    affix bayonets

  20. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    Russia as a whole isn't running out of ammo, they just have a hard time getting the sheer amount they need to the front lines

  21. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    Russia ran out of men and ammo half year ago

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      Thats why they started mobilization and enisted new 500.000 men.

      • 1 year ago
        Anonymous

        I thought it was six million

        • 1 year ago
          Anonymous

          >hyperbola cope
          You Black folk are so primitive.

  22. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    Can you make a fake 152mm shell with a fuse for two weeks, infiltrate it to get it transported, stockpiled, and later exploded with the stockpile along with it?

  23. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    They aren't. Literally everything that appears on any black rectangular screen is propaganda at this point. There genuinely is no real information out in anything right now.

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous

      >all the complaints are propaganda
      >all monik videos are propaganda
      >all families of mobiks videos are propaganda
      >all the fears, concerns and self reflection of Russians are fake, everything is going great

    • 1 year ago
      Anonymous
  24. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    As said before, the endless ammo stash meme was bullshit from the start, russia may have inherited the Soviet hoard, but a lot was sold and even more rotted away and the russian ammo industry cannot fill the supply needs, especially under war time sanctions.

  25. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    >use more rounds than you’re producing

  26. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    >https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1635259505008349186

  27. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    I like this thread. This is a nice fricking thread.

  28. 1 year ago
    Anonymous

    >shoot all your rounds t random buildings
    >have a like 1/500 production/expense ratio every day
    >have been relying on Soviet inheritance and fraud for the last 30 years
    Simple as

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