According to several Russian sources, including Wagner, but also mobiks, and now even a "A Just Russia" party functionary from the Rostov region.
Seems that Russia has expended most of their ammo and are now severely rationing
After the second month Russia should have expected it. This is just the Iran-Iraq war but flatter terrain and with drones instead of MiG-25s and F-14s. That’s why all these “Two More Weeks” posts and articles are retarded, the stalemate won’t collapse because both sides are too retarded for modern mechanized warfare.
The Ukrainians have moments of lucidity.
i wouldn't worry about it
they're stockpiling ammo most likely for some offensive actions later. i mean i'd like them to fuck off back to russia too, but it's too good to be true imo.
that is some AMAZING nose art
are americans allowed to paint on their HIMARS?
>How can Russia be out of rounds?
They're not. They are probably not even running low all things considered, they just don't have the capacity to get them to the frontline because their logistics are so fucking shit and because of this lad
They could have billions of rounds stored in some shitty bunker and it wouldn't change a thing.
Also, while they proabably still have enough shells, most of their barrels are probably well past their lifetime and can't hit shit even if the crew was sober.
I would make the oh so bold prediction that they are preparing for the perpetual and increasing arrivals of western tanks
By frittering away their few tanks and arty and manpower on disjointed attacks against dug-in Ukies?
That makes about as much sense as anything else the Russkis have done in this “not-war”.
>some offensive actions later
anon, their offensive already happened.
Vhuledar and bahkmut were stormed with either human waves or tanks and both got rekt.
They lost alone in vhuledar 130 tanks in one battle and still could not take the city
More like a big village tbh
more like a big pile of rubble tbh
36 tanks + 90-95ish other assorted pieces of armor.*
how many times are you going to use this line? when is this offensive happening? keeps getting delayed... 2 more weeks?
Why didn't they stockpile for the winter offensive then? Why did they send so many people and armor to die without adequate (for Russian army) fire support?
War isn't an RTS game. If you're stockpiling weapons that's not used and leading to your troops dying, then you'll have to rely on more experienced troops, which leads to relying on inexperienced troops, which leads to relying more on the few experienced troops you have left, which leads to relying more on inexperienced troops, which leads to your troops never being capable of doing anything because you're always playing catchup
but you aren't supposed to stockpile your resources in RTS either, anon. it's called floating and it's what people who are shit at macro does.
I think that is essentially what the previous anon was saying, they just said it all autistically. Don't stockpile your materials because it leads to a domino effect of defeat.
no panic right?
its that sarcasm? because their electrical system is fine,. the terror bombings failed.
artillery shells sure but they are going to run out of guided missiles and drones
You set off the bots lol
>hurr durr I just pretended to be retarded
> they're stockpiling ammo most likely for some offensive actions later
They literally just did the offensive and nobody had an ammo lol.
The rate that they are firing artillery is like 10% of what it was 10 months ago. They blew their load. All they have left is shit they inherited from the USSR, and then keeps getting sploded in transpo and storage.
but anon, rationing artillery at this point in time will risk russia's loss of artillery superiority, and when russia loses that advantage, ukrainians make gains, sometimes BIGLY. they'll end up fighting for land they had just lost, how is that a good offensive strategy?
Their great winter offensive already happened anon. Their big success was almost half of Bahkmut, a few smaller villages around it and the failed assault on Vhuledar (while losing a ton of mbt and several tanks). Now all they can do is bunker down and wait for the Ukie spring offensive with all that western gear and fresh troops.
>Read: in two to three months Russia will chimp out again and spam 50-100 increasingly low tech missiles at Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.
well they are stockpiling because of an offensive so much is true. just that its the coming ukrainian one. they know if they dont stockpile they will get yeeted out of crimea faster than they can yell cyka blyat
If Russia is losing, then why do kxhokxhols have no electricity?*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~*~~
They're rounding down... Always round uP!!!!!!!!!!!!!;
GIVE ME A YES SIR YOU LOVELY HUMAN BEING
I heard that russia said they have resources to conduct the war for 2 more years.
ive heard russia saying a lot of things. almost all of it was bullshit, including their statement that them invading Ukraine was just western hysteria. so take everything they said with a huge grain of salt.
this war could never go on forever, and it will never end poorly!!!
VICTORY IS ASSURED GENTLEMEN, TRUST ME WITH YOUR LIVES. I AM YOUR SAVIOR.
I heard that Russia said that their economy is booming because of sanctions and they are better than ever. Just now entering the age of prosperity with their numerous friends that are ready to challenge the west.
Really nice of russia to previously trade with others despite it weakening Russian and strengthening others, Russia for greatest humantiarian power ever and here we are resisting their great humanitarian efforts.
>with their numerous friends that are ready to challenge the west
That's the biggest proof I need to know they don't.
"da comrade we have two years worth of ammo in storage and i am 100% not lying to you like before nor did i sell it off or let it rust away... like before" pic related
The west estimated they had 25% of their 152mm stocks depleted before HIMARs showed up and put an end to their artillery spam. That also meant that in theory they had enough to spam for 2 years total.
But turns out having "stock" and having stock are two different things.
>one picture of a damaged conserve
next you'll post one dead Russian and claim that all Russians are dead. that's how retarded you are
>of a damaged conserve
oh that just 2 examples
that's just 3
oh that's just 4
"lol that's Ukraine" (the cope begins)
"no you lie"
"NO NO NO"
"moron" (a vatnig runs away)
>no need to worry comrades, only 1 box of ammo went bad for no reason, the rest is fine
their plan now is just to get into a frozen conflict until Trump win 2024 election and give them Ukraine in "the best deal ever".
If they don't plan on fighting any more wars in this century or the next, sure. Guess those parades in Warsaw and Paris are gonna have to wait.
russia lies when it opens it's mouth
>I heard that russia said [some more retarded bullshit]
(You) "heard that, huh? Feel free to post sauce. Maybe if (You) fist Lavrov's asshole and fish around in it for a while you'll come up with a turd nugget or something, probably formed from congealed monke semen.
I kinda think this is a trap and they want to bait Ukraine into an attack since they can’t advance any more.
Or they’re really out of round.
Yes, its home run now, just two more weeks this time they WILL run out
What are the chances saboteurs inside Russia destroyed a couple ammo plants? How many ammo plants / factories can Russia even have? I'm sure the glowies know the exact number but taking down one or three of them would put a serious wrench in their resupply
According to this anti-putinist their factories can churn out 800k shells a year (2000 a month), it's a dubious number at best and that's when they spend 0 resources on anything else like tank shells. It might explain why they've imported Iranian tank shells.
>800k shells a year (2000 a month)
i'm not a mathemortician but this somehow seems off
Meant 2000 per day.
There's no more telling sign you're winning than when you have to hope and speculate daily your enemy is running out of everything
It show you're clearly in control of the situation and not desperate and at the mercy of your enemy.
I suspects is less of a supply and more of a logistics issue. That's still bad for them, mind you.
Also Wagner supply shortages could also be because of political infighting, so there's that.
Do any Ukrainian sources confirm less Russian shellibg at the frontline?
I think it's against their national interest to admit shit eased up or the urgency wrt aid would fade
They've been saying that Russian shelling has been decreasing since Severodonetsk. With obvious flare ups from time to time but nothing has come even close to what shelling was at that point.
Running donations to Ukies and working with some NATO Logistics retards.
Had a lenghty series of posts written but who the fuck would even read that lmao. So here the short version:
The picture is incredibly muddy, lots of fog of war and conflicting messages. If you do an aggregate of all info, it looks like this.
- Russia increased shell manufacturing significantly and is further trying to ramp up with diminishing results
- Since September last year, shell expenditure is slowly but continously decreasing, the current average is hovering around 1/4th of the hottest phase of last spring & summer.
- Know a unit that fought around Popasna and is now close to Bakhmut, quote "Bakhmut artillery is a joke when compared to Popasna."
- Quality of shelling is increasingly unequal. Relatively high precision drone adjusted fires one day, 1950's shell of which half doesn't explode and the other half nails the neighboring kindergarten the other day.
- There is an element of RU psyops to this, most likely the current shell hunger is not just a genuine lack, but also stockpiling
- But the situation is probably much worse than RU most likely acknowledges internally
- Most interesting aspect is Prigozins claim that "The factories are full of shells" vs. various low level RU officials and officers "There are no shells, everything's fucked." Would be very interesting to see where those two different claims come from.
- Across the frontline there are orders to converse shells, they are enforced by very limited shell allocation. Exceptions to this are units around Avdiivka, Vuhledar and Bakhmut, but even they are basically on a diet, when compared to last year
- Massive issues with barrel replacements and integration of LNR/DNR artillery with the 3rd(!) big switch between calibers happening last year.
- Funniest bit of info, but unconfirmed: Russia is facing massive internal logistical issues. Selection and transport of refurbishment is handled by two actors, refurbishment by another, transport to storage by yet another. None of these actors communicate with one another. Through a game of telephone, statements like "120.000 shells present, 25.000 fit for fast refurbishment" turn into "120.000 shells refurbished & ready for pickup, 25.000 shells further shells reached the plant yesterday." Multiple times completely unfit shells scheduled for liquidation were delivered to refurbishment plants, while fit shells were liquidated.
- Ukraine is facing massive shell hunger as well and even worse, barrel and equipment wear. Saddest loss so far are the Pions for me, they barely function anymore.
Ukie frontline grunts complain and see doom and gloom, as a frontline grunt does. If you zoom out a bit, Russias shelling decreased in quality and quantity significantly. Why? I'd say 70% deficit, 30% stockpiling.
>- Most interesting aspect is Prigozins claim that "The factories are full of shells" vs. various low level RU officials and officers "There are no shells, everything's fucked." Would be very interesting to see where those two different claims come from.
i remember a thread on WW1 years back, some anon was saying that the cause of supply issues for front line units on the western front was last-mile delivery. factors such as mainly horse-based transportation, primitive low capacity train and motor transportation, inhospitable terrain and hostile interdiction all created a severe bottleneck. and i'm pretty sure that's basically the case here in ukraine except that HIMARS is creating a 70km "last-mile delivery" zone where supply dumps spontaneously combust which is frankly insane, WW1 artillery at max range was in the 9-12km range. so that's how you can reconcile factories and warehouses maxed out inventory and shell shortage at the front. and also russians being shit at logistics.
>Chinese factory workers
Fuck you, anon, I wasn't expecting wholesome.
Because I'm drunk, bored and a gay that promised to drop some optics chickened out a few more """insider""" information. This bit is what is circulated in mid-level NATO circles.Could be completely wrong:
- Russia is able to refurbish up to 1000 tanks a year
- That is in absolutely perfect conditions, with every refurbishment working out and refurbishment being the absolute bare minimum
- Most recent numbers suggest more like 350~ tanks of all shapes and sizes per year
- Tank production is a fucking mystery and not even Russians really know what's happening
- UVZ is fudging production numbers by circle delivering tanks
- UVZ is also "delivering" new tanks which are tanks they were sent for repair
- Still, the UVZ shenanigans are a small
- Russias longterm storages are at least 30% depleted by now, this seems a low number until...
- Only about 50% of all tanks appear to be salvagable
- Russia has lost more than half of its starting fleet of all T-72 variants
Next post is on Ukie manpower and ammo.
- Situation much worse than publically discussed
- Forced conscription on local level, as local governments try to meet quotas
- But situation nowhere near catastrophic or what Russia claims, just worse than people think
- Projecting strength is part of government policy
- With current intensity, Ukraine can sustain the war for at least another year before expanding forced conscription
- Big issue is payment, corruption is a serious problem and so is tedious beurocracy
- Ukraine has a significant portion of its units not comitted. Numbers are not available on mid-level, but speculation is more than 35%
- Rising discontent with Sirsky, Bakhmut is a serious issue for Ukrainian morale and Sirsky is blamed for most problems
- Munition is bad. Really, really bad. Unclear how much is due to stockpiling, but shell allocation is atrocious. This includes mortar shells, manpads, AT weapons
- Ukraine has at least 14 long range strike drones in storage by now
- Domestic shell production is about 25k a month, if everything goes absolutely perfectly, there were issues with some type of filler, Ukies just called it "cotton"
- Bohdana production is existent, but manufactury level and tiny
- Ukies ran a psyop that a major Kharkiv tank plant returned to Kharkiv to repair tanks. This resulted in severe Russian longrange fire expenditure last year and some nasty civilian losses. Unclear if plant actually returned by now.
Last bit, just because I don't want to compromise myself or my friends:
Keep an eye on Turkish weapon deliveries, they have scheduled (not yet comitted) some hilarious stuff.
Interesting insights. In your opinion, which side is likelier to burn out first if the war does indeed go on for another year or even more?
I suppose we'll see if the bakhmut investment pays off with the counter-attack in the spring. Unfortunately making it such a resistance point isn't just a case of casualties and resources but also hyping it up in the political battle over who is winning. If Ukraine had not fought tooth and nail and it fell it'd have been a laughable "what fucking village?" like that other piddly ass town the Russians grabbed I can't remember the name of. Soledar? But it's been raised in stature such that when Ukraine loses it the chicken littles in the West will start to hem and haw that Ukraine should make peace concessions. And it's going to be capitalized on by the Russians something fierce.
And before a dumb gay accuses me of being john from austinov oblast I'd love to see the vatniks fucked up. I'm just getting a bit more pessimistic. Not expecting the halcyon 2022 days of Crimea in Fall 2023 being plausible. I hope I am proven wrong and the Russian lines collapse with the push later this year.
>But it's been raised in stature such that when Ukraine loses it the chicken littles in the West will start to hem and haw that Ukraine should make peace concessions.
Those people absolutely don't matter, should Ukraine withdraw from Bakhmut this will be just Severodonetsk 2.0 in every aspect
> Rising discontent with Sirsky, Bakhmut is a serious issue for Ukrainian morale and Sirsky is blamed for most problems
Sure. Go find some of the people on the ground around Bakhmut like Taras Chmut or Stus, or people that have spoken to them (Kofman, Rob Lee) and see what the opinion of Sirsky is.
That's incredibly hard to say. I think that Ukraine has the shorter stick on average, but also the larger potential. If the West ramped up ammo and arms production in March last year and then opened the floodgates, there wouldn't be much Russia could have done. If the West withdraws support in external factors - financing, arms and ammo, equipment for critical infrastructure etc. there isn't much Ukraine can do.
The counterattack is a contentious thing. Lots of uncomitted Ukrainian troops, yeah. But the trust in command including and above Brigade level is dubious to say the least. Zaluzhny is still enjoying a good reputation, but like I said Sirsky not so much.
Some Russian sources are talking of a major offensive across the entire front - neither I nor the Ukies I speak to see this happening. We are talking most likely one or two localised offensives akin to Kharkiv.
seems like a genuine view from the Ukrainian side. I still think that a lot of opinions in "NATO circles" are cope, but that's understandable
If anything, most NATO officer seem to overestimate Russia while at the same time being completely unable to understand how it works.
So you get these supposedly competent people with extremely unrealistic assumptions and very wrong predictions such as:
>Russia will roll over Ukraine
>Russia will stop fighting when they suffer extensive casualties
The answer to that has been given by a lot of commentators, but it ultimately boils down to sheer chaotic dishonesty. So many people lied at so many levels that not even Russia understands how capable (or rather, incapable) it really is. The US simply conditioned itself to assume the worst from a purported world power, while the Russians themselves shrugged and hoped for the best because they were said world power.
Less arty, more mortars and tanks.
>According to several Russian sources, including Wagner, but also mobiks, and now even a "A Just Russia" party functionary from the Rostov region.
>Seems that Russia has expended most of their ammo and are now severely rationing
what if the stockpiles are being hoarded for offensive action but not against Ukraine?
This is possible, the whole Georgia situation and shit is kicking off in Azerbaijan.
> NAFO estonian
> Some Russian party man in Rostov
VatnikGPT only has a small text bank to work with, please understand
to this NAFO Estonian gayon Twitter Russia is done in 2 weeks for the 20000th time
>Its all so tiresome
>hundreds of blown ammo dumps by HIMARS in july-august
>every "liberated" city is flattened with tens of thousands mindlessly launched shells
I wonder why, its a mystery.
>Its a sabotage
>Enemy traitors fifthcolum nazi fascists placed shit into our pants
>Russia cannot just be shit
it doesn't make sense that they'd run out of rounds when they have access to the reserves of the Soviet Union, North Korea and Iran
damn that's some tasty looking cannelloni
>I crave the F O R B I D D E N L A S A G N A
Thought it was lasagna from the thumbnail
looks pretty tasty for MRE
I still have no idea what caliber are these rounds. Any idea anons?
bad shells or good lasagna?
this pic gives me heartburn. can’t handle rich food anymore
a lot of those shells were inherited by their states in the east
we'll see. i'm not really biting my tongue.
ironically, you'll find iranian shells more often used by ukraine.
meant west but east is also sorta accurate
Russia as a whole isn't running out of ammo, they just have a hard time getting the sheer amount they need to the front lines
Russia ran out of men and ammo half year ago
Thats why they started mobilization and enisted new 500.000 men.
I thought it was six million
You morons are so primitive.
Can you make a fake 152mm shell with a fuse for two weeks, infiltrate it to get it transported, stockpiled, and later exploded with the stockpile along with it?
They aren't. Literally everything that appears on any black rectangular screen is propaganda at this point. There genuinely is no real information out in anything right now.
>all the complaints are propaganda
>all monik videos are propaganda
>all families of mobiks videos are propaganda
>all the fears, concerns and self reflection of Russians are fake, everything is going great
As said before, the endless ammo stash meme was bullshit from the start, russia may have inherited the Soviet hoard, but a lot was sold and even more rotted away and the russian ammo industry cannot fill the supply needs, especially under war time sanctions.
>use more rounds than you’re producing
I like this thread. This is a nice fucking thread.
>shoot all your rounds t random buildings
>have a like 1/500 production/expense ratio every day
>have been relying on Soviet inheritance and fraud for the last 30 years