>haha just invade taiwan bro pla totally has the advantage bro
>two weeks easy bro hahaha
everytime i get worried i remember it's going to be turbo afghanistan except this time we're on the asymmetric defense side and also USN is directly engaging kek
tactically speaking, how are you even supposed to do A2AD here?
you dont, you just try to keep the USN away from the open sea.
Bonus points when you realize there are plenty of places to resupply on the opposite side of the island. Shit, even imagine how hard traditional mortars and artillery would just fuck any RORO or even beach landing.
>just try to keep the USN away from the open sea
Forgot about about something?
>Forgot about about something?
Forgot about about something else?
Does Taiwan have a Army Coast Artillery Corps equivalent?
Uh, their Army controls their coastal artillery batteries but any AA outside of like MANPADS or small, mobile SAMs is their AF. 90% sure you can trust me on this.
ideally they would've tried some blockade shenanigans while the west is distracted but that's unlikely now after ukraine
If China tries to blockage Taiwan then the US would just sail though it and laugh off Chinese warnings.
Honestly wouldn’t be surprised if the Chinese are stupid enough to buy into the “America is over” meme and would try to flag down and board a US destroy thereby starting the Sino-American war.
Just let Japan reenact Pearl Harbor, just with drones instead of suicidal pilots.
>everytime i get worried i remember it's going to be turbo afghanistan except this time we're on the asymmetric defense side
hey uh so look at casualties for the US, and now look at casualties for the enemy. Which side do you want to be on in that equation?
>hey uh so look at casualties for the US, and now look at casualties for the enemy. Which side do you want to be on in that equation?
are you retarded? how could that possibly have been your takeaway
You're a fucking retard if that's not your takeway. Not everyone is willing to die by the thousands for every enemy killed and be occupied by decades without winning a single engagement to tire the enemy out until they decide to leave.
In fact, just about nobody is fanatical enough to do so. It's not some epic win and no one in a relatively developed nation like Taiwan is willing to do it.
I think the biggest issue here is that Taiwan isn't as deep-rooted in their independence as people may think. At least half of the population simply want the status quo to continue, which implies a certain amount of passivity to being invaded. But then again, Ukraine was rather milquetoast in their views towards Russia before they got invaded, so it may be similar here.
Either way, I think even China realizes that invading Taiwan is a losing prospect just by virtue that they need to do a naval landing against a very mountainous country, but not only that, but they'd have to land on the heavily urbanized western side of the island too.
Anon, the reason they want the status quo is to avoid being invaded. If they get invaded, it is no longer the status quo.
Taiwan resolutely do not want to be under the CCP boot. The argument is never about the 1 billion chinese on the mainland or against chinese in general, it is only and has always been about the chicoms
>Taiwan doesn't want independance
>Taiwan wants to maintain the status quo (Independance)
Please chink shill, your own graph betrays you
>I think the biggest issue here is that Taiwan isn't as deep-rooted in their independence as people may think.
And Ukraine used to hold a positive view of Russia. The second Chinese cruise missiles start dropping and they're pulling out dead children from the rubble the Taiwanese will go "Total Chinese Death". People have a very instinctive reaction to being invaded and attacked. ANY invasion scenario will mean bombings on the island, and attacking/destroying Taiwanese navy and air force. The reason that Taiwanese are moderates mostly are because they're naive about mainland, and because they want to avoid conflict. China has no such delusions.
Dude watch Eastern coast in Google streets (this alone is ridiculous breach of opsec). There are hundreds km of suitable landing coast.
you post this stupid shit every time even though at least thirty to forty different people have explained to you how hilariously wrong you are in thirty to forty different ways
>At least half of the population simply want the status quo to continue, which implies a certain amount of passivity to being invaded.
no it doesn't you stupid cunt they have fought to create the status quo and the US asserted it at gunpoint after China fucked around by """volunteering""" in Korea - the status quo is, in a literal sense, violent revolt against the purile non-governance of the CPC
you are literally unteachable, and you will never be Chinese
brief summary for anyone too retarded to read a graph properly:
>59% want real independence or functional independence (= will fight)
>34% want to maintain the current situation of functional independence pending further changes in the relationship (= will be radicalized by a Chinese invasion)
>only 7% have any unification sentiment, which is hilariously lower than the percentage of mainlanders in Taiwan (lmao, also likely to be radicalized by a Chinese invasion/peer pressure)
Taiwan is different from Ukraine, they will not rests because people of Taiwan are Chinese. The west will never understand the brotherly bond between Chinese people.
Just like the russians and ukrainians?
>invade
if china decides to attack they'll just arti the island into a plain and there's anything anyone can do
every other scenario depends entirely on making the chinks putin-tier retards. They are going to take the option with the least possibility of bad news, and that means bombing them to near extermination then just land on the corpe.
The problem, Chang, as seen in Ukraine (and previous wars) is that even if you have the world's largest artillery force, with access to an enormous supply of ammunition, you still can't bomb a country into submission.
From an operational perspective, the only thing bombing Taiwan "into a plain" will accomplish is enraging the population and solidify support for Taiwan. The longer a bombing campaign, and more excessive Chinese brutalities are, the worse it gets.
>you still can't bomb a country into submission.
you can bomb tactical objectives into submission, fact Ukrainian artillery amply demonstrated.
And guess what island-nation is entirely reachable by modern missile platforms?
>and solidify support for Taiwan.
like it did for armenia, ukraine 2014 and all the other victims of wars of offense in the last 20 years?
are you delusional or do you get paid you to push this point?
shit's got a mountain range running thru the center of it. arty and missile spam can only do so much.
bing bong ching chong.
kys mainlander,
Remember that those polls are done during peace time. If an invasion takes place, you don't know how the population might react. Such as the case of Ukraine, they might really double down on nationalism, giving birth to an absolutely unequivocally separate Taiwanese nation state, and cause people to rally around the flag in defense. Or they might just give up. It's only going to become clear if an invasion takes place. Of course, whether the Chinese enjoy early success or setbacks will greatly influence things. Also, if the US gets involved, and if perhaps Japan, Australia gets involved. If Philippines and South Korea protest... these things matter.
>passivity to being invaded.
you know what tends to change fencesitters minds? violent invasion.
After Hong Kong, nobody in their right mind wants to be under the CCP's boot. CCP literally just flooded Hong Kong to save the mainland. Taiwan would be turned into a dumping ground for the CCP's dangerous waste or mass organ harvesting grounds.
>At least half of the population simply want the status quo to continue, which implies a certain amount of passivity to being invaded
What a bizarre leap in logic.
>Ukraine was rather milquetoast in their views towards Russia before they got invaded, so it may be similar here.
Being warcrime'd tends to do that. All China had to do is not commit warcrimerinos and resp-hahahaha no i can't finish that.
>hahahaha no i can't finish that.
Yeah I was reading your post and already starting to highlight in realtime so I could reply. Good stuff.
>But then again, Ukraine was rather milquetoast in their views towards Russia before they got invaded, so it may be similar here.
it's always like this anon, people are anti war but the moment their country gets invaded they become servants of Khorne
>"Now it seems like we are in the same critical period as the “horses were drinking water in the Yangtze River" days in the revolutionary era, as long as we resolve the United States problem at one blow, our domestic problems will all be readily solved. Therefore, our military battle preparation appears to aim at Taiwan but in fact is aimed at the United States, and the preparation is far beyond the scope of attacking aircraft carriers or satellites." — Defense Minister Gen. Chi Haotian (2003)
They released a bioweapon as unconventional economic Pearl Harbor warfare, killed Archduke Shinzo 'have sex' Abe, and coordinated with Moscow before the Ukraine invasion as an extension thereof. They're absolutely that stupid or evil to try, even if it takes nuking.
>turbo afghanistan
militaristic dictatorships are not afraid of insurgent holes. For one they dont give a shit how much meat and metal get shredded and for two if it comes to that they will genocide the entire occupied population down to the breast babies if they have to
>inb4 soviet afghanistan
the entire death toll of the decade was like what 15k? Compare it to ukraine today it was a slightly annoying desert vacation. Afghan ended because the vatnik union imploded from its internal disfunction, primarly economic and ethnic strife rebelling against the russocentric muscovite retardation. While muscovites themselves were too busy with internal power schism as the communist party lost its seat and mobsters+kgb manouvered in to fill the seat.
Only way taiwan survives is by repelling landing attempts and then enduring the siege to follow until it becomes too much of a embarrassment not to help them out with supply convoys moving in with armed escorts. That function as tripwire units putting beijing in front of the question on how big of an war they want
>For one they dont give a shit how much meat and metal get shredded and for two if it comes to that they will genocide the entire occupied population down to the breast babies if they have to
You want a modern non-Afghanistan example of this backfiring? Nazi occupied Greece.
>For one they dont give a shit how much meat and metal get shredded and for two if it comes to that they will genocide the entire occupied population down to the breast babies if they have to
Ladies and gentlemen, the world's foremost scholar of political science and military strategy.
And that mindset is a LIABILITY not an asset. Same shit going on in Russia where Russian hardware and men are being chewed up and destroyed. Evne if Russia wins they will never be as strong militarily as before.
You saw what China did with COVID right? Total over reaction and they doubled down on it because middle management thought that's what Xi wanted. Xi purged any independent thinkers at all. If China launches an invasion, no matter how disasterious, they will keep going until there is no more Chinese military. There is NO backing down.
A heavily fortified island filled with mountains can hold out indefinitely. They will have top notch air defenses and anti-ship weapons, and increasingly UAV's. It will be complete suicide for China.
The actual military plan is to blockaide China's coast in the event of an attack on Taiwan by the US Navy and any allies possible. Then sanction them to hell and back. How would China break the blockaide? Even if they win they would starve and the entire country would fall apart.
Like many, I've reappraised China's chance of defeating Taiwan downwards (not to mention that China is still massively dependent on U.S. economic cooperation), but I don't think China and Russia are a lot alike. The systems are too different and how they react to crises are, too. What did Russia do when COVID hit? Jack shit, basically. What Russia has also been doing lately in the war is similar to the "4D chess" idea where everything that looks idiotic and embarrassing is actually part of a pre-ordained plan.
The CCP's approach to COVID was overreactive, panicky, and seemingly irrational, but it was also a response to a real problem. It was supposed to be Chinese Chernobyl, the end of the CCP (finally), and yet it wasn't. People being welded into their homes by local cops! Footage of doctors apparently with guns on the streets of Wuhan! How are they gonna turn that around? By something resembling actual mass mobilization:
Armies of officials, doctors and soldiers (+ millions of party members) going "oh shit oh shit" and showing real determination (and adding to arguments in favor of retaining industrial capacity). But their whole history is a series of monumental fuck-ups like that going back to the Long March, and then to the eternal frustration of many people wishing for their demise, they've somehow made it work out, and if not strengthening them, at least teaching some useful lessons which is then used to bounce back.
People think of the CCP as a gray, static, bureaucratic, late Soviet-style thing. But there's still some "guerrilla" DNA in there that goes back to their origins. They try to hide it, but a guerrilla has to stay on his feet. Be adaptable. A sitting guerrilla is a dead guerrilla. They need the jolt so they don't become complacent (their worse enemy). And when you tell this organism to fight a war, it can fight a bloody war. Doesn't mean it's guaranteed to win one, though.
Also, while I remember, Mao wasn't originally the main guy, that happened after the Long March (which was a product of the second big ol' fuck-up) after the first batch of leaders fucked up and were beheaded in 1927. Imagine if that happened to George Washington and some other guy ended up on the $1 bill instead. The second time they fucked up, they lost 90% of their guys who got blown up, shot, raped to death, frozen in mountain, consumed by quicksand and eaten by alligators.
It could all fall apart tomorrow, but my sense is that Xi recognizes that (again) complacency is what will kill them, not overreacting (whether spasmodically or not) to a problem. Complacency is what was killing the CCP under Hu Jintao. Xi has been trying to bring back these old Marxist notions of struggle, but that's their natural element. The USSR sorta had that but lost it, became complacent, then collapsed. The possibility is there in Cuba but there's a similar guerrilla DNA in the regime I think... it could collapse tomorrow too, but it's more like they're aware that's a possibility while the Communist Party of the Soviet Union wasn't.
The Cuban protests they had a few years ago kicked off after a power plant failed and the grid collapsed. But Miguel-Diaz Canel (the president btw) immediately was like Get. The Power Plant. Back. Online. Now. And then hit the streets. With dudes. The people who were protesting got grabbed fast by the throat and thrown in prison. The regime's supporters who were organized grabbed clubs and put their bodies in front of the parliament building (there was more violence from them toward protesters than I think was ever really reported on). It was over very fast. They didn't rest on their laurels when shit blew up in their face. Whatever you think of this system, or this party, it did that. What did the CPSU do? Sit around with their thumbs up their asses.
The problem is china has been consistently over reacting recently with Xi at the helm, I get the complacency is death for them but Covid and their recent retard level aggressive diplomacy is fucking them over
COVID was a Chinese test run to see what decoupling from international commerce would look like. Which will happen when they attack Taiwan in the next 2-4 years. Which the US MIC seems to be gearing up for by on-shoring critical things like semiconductors, and building things like the B-21 Raider. 2-4 years is incidentally how long it will take for those to spool up... It is almost like there is a hivemind making strategic decisions outside the realm of the election cycle or process. The realization that Russo-Chinese conflicts were inevitable seems to have reached this hivemind in 2017.
>A heavily fortified island filled with mountains can hold out indefinitely
And has security guarantee that Japan will intercede on their side and more than half a century of nuclear plant cooperation (they have nukes). Then there's the cruise missiles that can reach the 3 Gorges and Beijing.
>militaristic dictatorships are not afraid of insurgent holes
And yet the Soviets lost in Afghanistan much harder than the US did and China fled from Vietnam two weeks into their invasion.
>the entire death toll of the decade was like what 15k?
So about ten times the losses in half the time of the US? Wow! Dictatorships are powerful.
wonder what the death toll would be if China and Russia supplied to insurgency
Not much because the US isn’t retarded. Ukraine didn’t stalemate Russia with Western equipment, they stalemayted Russia and then got Western equipment, the core issue is military incompetence in the East.
To be fair, they were taking the first plunge into that style of warfare
We got to take all their lessons learned, and then some
Plus 20+ years later, tech changed a ton
>they will genocide the entire occupied population
Ah, yes, which is why they speak R*ssian in Afghanistan nowadays, right? Or Chinkonese in Vietnam? Fucking idiot.
>the entire death toll of the decade was like what 15k?
Oh, cool, so they "only" lost 15k to achieve ... literally nothing. Wow.
>Afghan ended because the vatnik union imploded
ESL-ishness aside, I didn't know the USSR collapsed in '89. You learn something new on PrepHole everyday.
>everytime i get worried i remember it's going to be turbo afghanistan except this time we're on the asymmetric defense side
China doesn't care about hippy rules that held America back. They will just slaughter whole villages.
if your impression of the afghanistan war was that the US never obliterated a village you need to do some more research kek. obama personally ordered many drone strikes that killed entire families including women and children.
You're a fucking retard. The US never wanted to occupy and then populate and seize Afghanistan.
China does want to do this to Taiwan. They have zero problem with forcing compliance or death on everyone there.
China, despite being brutally inhuman and anti-individualist, also does not want to kill the Taiwanese, preferring unification. You listen to your grandpa's schizo takes too often
Of course, because the US is there telling them they will get skullfucked if they try.
See: Hong Kong. They'll roll up and say everything will be fine, then say "actually no you're gonna play by our rules now" and if you have a problem with it, you get disappeared. Are they going to back off then if people resist en masse? Well ask the Uyghers and Tibetans.
Hong Kong isn't the example you think it is. While it sucks to have to have to watch what you say, 99.9% of people look at that and realize it better than the shit Ukraine is going through right now
>it isn't worth it to die for your homeland, just roll over and surrender
>just let us invade you bro, just let it happen bro it's easier this way
Hong Kong isn't defendable and relies on China for food and water supplies. It was also just leased from the Chinese, the deal was always to give it back.
>making shit up
Slaughtering whole villages famously went well for the Soviets in afghanistan.
yeah because that worked out so well for Germany in Yugoslavia
My only fear is that they will just surrender like Hong Kong surrendered all of their freedom.
Hong Kong was a one off, now that the Taiwanese have seen what awaits them if they submit they will never surrender
Less than 1% of the HK population has left. There's literally more Hong Kongers who went to China than went to the UK. That's the thing about the Chinks. Most of them are perfectly content with living under autocracies.
are we just pretending all those protests didn't happen now or what
They happened. They're over.
And what has happened since? Did millions move abroad? A lot of them simply gave up. They just don't have the same desire for freedom that western nations have. Okay, to be fair some do, but those people are in the minority.
of course they gave up, what the fuck else where they supposed to do?
my point is that now Tiawan has seen that there are no circumstances in which they come under PRC control and are able to maintain their democratic institutions, fighting is the only option they have
>of course they gave up, what the fuck else where they supposed to do?
Continue their resistance? Every revolution in history would have failed if they all capitulated as soon as it got hairy. There's no spirit of "give me liberty or give me death" among Asians.
>my point is that now Tiawan has seen that there are no circumstances in which they come under PRC control and are able to maintain their democratic institutions, fighting is the only option they have
But you're assuming that they care as much about these institutions as you do. If it gets too tough, they'll capitulate. These people aren't cut from the same cloth as the actual developed world.
>There's no spirit of "give me liberty or give me death" among Asians.
…he said in a thread discussing a revolutionary state (the CCP)
also, Vietnam, arguably Taiwan itself etc
unless you are referring more to a pursuit of liberalism rather than a willingness to revolt
well the mainland Chinese certainly didn't revolt for liberty did they
All they ended up doing was swapping a one party totalitarian state for a one party totalitarian state with a red flag
American pig.. no ploblem fol ge-boius china of unmeasulable success.. why because
>china have J20 weilong ling zhao navy fight super coolguy
>china have unmeasulable powel of man 5 billion
>china big countly
>china have big type 99 tank of 200mm tungsren ulanium penetlation
>china navar might of south CHINA sea
>china arso have weibo?=translateError_282&0!
China the BIG YES.. Amelican pig fat no.. soon rearise..
If that's Danshui, I used to live there.
And China isn't going to have to invade. The KMT leadershit will surrender to the PLA and instruct their troops to assist the CCP in rounding up current government officials. The resulting chaos among the lower-ranking TW military will give the PLA an easy victory.
It will be just like Crimea in 2014, with the "Ukrainian" admiralty handing over all their warships to Russian "little green men" except with slanty-eyed yellow people.
t. former expat
>"Ukrainian" admiralty handing over all their warships to Russian "little green men"
full of shit
Cool story bro. Things have changed since 2018, before I'd actually agree. Now you'd be insane to think the KMT has any power left. Oh and that's definitely not Danshui, you should know if you lived there, it's pretty obvious.
Stop reading Chinese propaganda. Seriously, Hong Kong was supposed to be given back? No, Hong Kong Island itself was ceded in perpetuity. Only a part of Kowloon and the New Territories were leased and had to be given back. But then China threatened to just invade Hong Kong and Britain knew it would be indefensible without Kowloon and the New Territories and gave in.
Successfully? That would involve geopolitical maneuvering that China has failed to show.
I wish they would but it looks like it's not happening
Odds of Taiwan spamming these things at the invasion fleet and causing serious casualties before it even leaves Fujian?
These fields have been seeded. Why did they display their drones there? Why did they fuck up the crops just for a photo? It's a weird location.
how on earth are these effective when sea skimming cruise missiles that move about 20 times as fast are relatively easy to defeat with modern missiles
They aren't effective against warships at sea, warships are fast and difficult to intercept and naval guns with time fuse ammunition shred these kinds of boats.
They are useful for commerce raiding though.
Honestly I would worry about China making swarms of these more than Taiwan, they would get more use out of them.
decently
the chinese would probably have to commandeer a lot of civilian shipping to help with shipping troops and supplies. Those would probably cause a decent bit of confusion and unless properly escorted could be decent picking for naval drones. Once a few merchantmen get hit and possibly sunk by naval drones of other anti-shipping weapons all bet are of on how well the mainlanders could keep control of those auxiliary vessels.
They'll use the same tactics they used against Hainan which is just as mountainous and forested, but with commercial ferries and cargo ships instead of wooden Junks:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Hainan_Island
>replay 1950s strategies that basically only worked due to uncontested landings and poor equipment on both sides
>against a country that has been mass producing AShMs for decades as one of their top priorities for defense spending, and who just bought a shitload of harpoons to supplement supply further
>which now has over 100 F-16s and a stupid number oF HARM, AMRAAM, and glide bombs
>to replicate an operation that failed to halt the evacuations of massive amounts of men and materiel, a failure that led to the current status quos, all because the advance was both slow and obvious
I hope they do you absolute mongrel, it will make the cleanup easier
I don't know why you people post such shit
Im sure Taiwanese anti-ship missiles will allow a very obvious invasion fleet to travel over 100 miles of open ocean uncontested.
Someone can correct me if Im wrong (and preferbale point out where Im wrong) but isnt the plan something like
>China invades
>US blockades China
>No way out since every island on the coast is an US ally
>China imports food and energy so cannot function during a blockade
This would leave China with options of dying a lot quicker than the ruskies due to sanctions or blow up US vessels which would just bring the big guy to the war
This of course assumes US will flake out on just fully defending Taiwan as well, which is a assumption the PLA probably cannot afford to make
That wholly depends on what China does as an opening act. If China confines itself to attacking just Taiwan, does not immediately capture it, and the US does not directly intervene then yes it might play out similar to how you describe. But since China knows US will use its power and allies to attempt to economically crush it, or even directly intervene, China might preemptively strike US bases in Japan, Philippines, Guam, and Australia. Honestly, If China is going for Taiwan they might even just go for broke and try to take multiple things in the South China Sea in a rush like the Japanese tried in WW2.
Food and energy blockades are one of the main ways that the US can harm China, however I think they are overly viewed as decisive and often people fail to recognise possible second order consequences.
To start off with China would be unlikely to starve under blockade; food quality would certainly fall a lot, but managed properly you are unlikely to see famine.
The British rationing experience in WW2 is a good example of what people are generally willing to put up with.
As for energy, China does depend on imported middle Eastern energy for it's industry, however it has a large strategic reserve of oil (currently full...) and it's own production that accounts for maybe a third of Chinese demand.
Also to the north in Russia there are many potential fields that could be developed and connected over land; these haven't been developed due to high costs compared to Arab supply, however under wartime conditions this would be acceptable and would take maybe a couple years with herculean effort.
I would say in any kind of long war, the worst time for China would be their second year under blockade, however they could eventually circumvent the worst effects.
Now second order consequences:
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all more food and energy insecure than China and China has the tools to severely frustrate sea trade to these countries.
IMO this is severely discounted when looking at the possibility of a conflict with China, mostly because people believe it must be a short and localised war, however I believe it's a serious strategic weakness for the US strategy.
IMO any US strategy to contain China to the SCS depends completely on their local allies, however their local allies are quite strategically vulnerable.
I think in a potential long war with China it's likely there would be some kind of convoy war to keep Japan under supply.
However if we compare to WW2, Japan is far weaker relative to China than the British were relative to Germany.
If they're getting blockaded for years on end what's stopping the US from just blowing up those oil projects?
Chinese air defenses presumably and the risk of expanding the war to Russia.
>the risk of expanding the war to Russia.
>being concerned about a war with Russia in 1942 + 81
our decades-old table scraps are proving enough to btfo their equipment
Blockades are universally recognized as an act of war. Either the US completely sits it out or comes in guns blazing to defend Taiwan (I think the latter is likely).
Just call it a 'Naval Quarantine' like JFK did with Cuba lol. Problem solved.
I take your point but its basically boils down to pointing out that a bloackade is only a blockade once it is tested. At such a point, either the blockader stands down and thus it was never a blockade or they open fire (in which case open conflict is sure to follow).
I know, I was just memeing. In this scenario though, I feel that America taking the 'soft approach' and setting up a blockade simply forces the Chinese hand without having to fire a shot. Either they put their money where their mouth is and openly attack US vessels, or they have to eventually shrink away. Engaging any element of a CVN at blockade would almost certainly be suicide for the PLAN/PLA. Not only would the American response be quick and immense, it would invite an Allied response too.
There is simply too much firepower in the theatre to warrant China fucking around and finding out. It really seems like too much of risk for them.
>I know, I was just memeing.
My bad, maybe just used to people on here being such needlessly argumentative shits.
Taiwan is a natural fortress, however it is relatively easy to blockade and cut off from re-supply.
Even without a blockade, American sea and airlift would have a hard time operating across the entire Pacific.
It's far from trivial to defend the island, not impossible, but difficult.
One should not necessarily try to apply too many conclusions from the Ukraine war onto Taiwan, because it's likely that the war would look quite different and the decisive phase would happen a lot faster.
Even without a rapid fait accomplis, Taiwan might only take a couple months to fall if China can successfully create a beach-head.
Simply providing weapons to the ROC would likely not be feasible and the United States and likely at least Japan would have to intervene directly to break a blockade on the island.
>relatively easy to blockade
US carrier groups say otherwise.
>American sea and airlift would have a hard time operating across the entire Pacific.
CSG5 could be in the middle of the Pacific and still get regular Amazon packages delivered. You underestimate how autistic American logistics truly are.
Far weaker in real terms than it was during the cold war.
The air and sealift force that was meant to enable re-forger was far larger than what exists today.
> American sea and airlift would have a hard time operating across the entire Pacific.
Brother do the Philippines and Japan not exist to you? Both have Islands damn near the coast of Taiwan and both just happen to be good friends to the US and hosts to US bases.
If we're at war then we're at war. We'll retake Formosa if we have to. Thinking the US will bitch out after a bloody nose is what got Japan nuked twice.
by flying ten billion chinks in to become citizens and then it's de facto over for them anyway cause everyone has a boner for letting their country get destroyed LEGALLY
>everyone
Westoids aren't "everyone".
Why do all china vs taiwan discussions end up as china vs usa discussions?
Might as well leave taiwan off the table and just go straight to discussing china vs usa hypotheticals.
Because that's how it would inevitably play out. I don't think there is any China/Taiwan situation that could develop without some form of input from the US. They have bases all over the Pacific; anything that affects Taiwan affects the US. Don't be simple.
Taiwan's main job is to not get rolled over in a couple of weeks, beyond that it's pretty limited in what it can do to defend itself.
Direct US intervention is necessary if the PLA doesn't just give up after a failed coup de main.
Yeah, sad thing is, the Taiwanese ave actually done an incredible job setting up a defense. But when you are that close to that massive of a military its kind of a matter more of when and not if you are defeated.
It seems to me that China has already achieved a fairly good result for them and the US. At least temporarily.
Taiwan manufactures a great number of produced goods/wares in China proper. Both China as well as the US are increasingly looking to bring (back) wafers and boost national produce anyway; Europe invests a lot of dough in the same goal. The dependency on Taiwan will probably decrease in the coming years and everyone, regardless of rhetoric, is aware of just how much China-US-Europe benefit from trading with each other.
This really leaves territorial defence and integrity of China pasted upon Taiwan as a natural extension and historical part of the country. Reckon they simply pulled out for now and I don't buy the now or never bullshit. Whatever happens to internal issues in China proper and its development determines Taiwan's view on China. Chinks have always played the long-game and will continue to do so, methinks.
Anon that’s literally even worse, that makes Taiwan worthless and now they can’t even use it as a threat against the US if the US is manufacturing chips again, fuck that double fucks them because now why would the us buy Chinese if they manufacture their own?
Threat? Their goal probably is to limit Taiwan's main role in the chip industry. And no, it does not make Taiwan worthless. Owning Taiwan gives them immense control over the most important shipping lane in the world and boosts the range of their territorial defense by a lot. They probably have a list of shit they want to achieve and each individual point comes with another list on how to achieve it and when "Gain support of Taiwanese pop" is unlikely and "invade" is also unlikely they'll simply play the long-game and hope that whenever public opinion in the US is strongly against defending Taiwan they can make another attempt. Why would "the US buy Chinese" is a weird question. Chips are used inside of other products and price and quantity determine who buys what.
Xi Xingpeng did not make himself president for life and write his name on the constitution so that he could "play the long game"
he will attack within the next ten years, with my personal guess for the kickoff date being 2025
I'll remind you.
please do
the actual kickoff date will presumably be sometime after the end of the rainy season (for the weather) but what I will be looking out for is the construction of a mulberry style artificial harbour on the Chinese side of the straight, which will have to take place several months before the actual invasion
As soon as we see one of those going up it's on like Donkey Kong
Everything of defensive value on Taiwan will be destroyed by long-range ballistic and glide-vehicle missiles. China isn’t Russia and they have a constellation of navigation sats and are currently working on a Starlink competitor and heavily use sat nav in their missiles; they will have no problems hitting targets at long range. Taiwan likely doesn’t have a single military site which China doesn’t have detailed maps of. Expect China to achieve air dominance on literally day 1. The PLA will land virtually unopposed. Oh, and China somehow managed to buy out a Taiwanese port facility so the way will be prepared from literally both sides of the Strait. Thinking Taiwan could halt a PLA landing in any meaningful way is pure cope. Taiwan’s military is NOT some hard-training, cutting-edge doctrine force; in reality it’s sort of a joke. If the PLA’s capabilities are real and they train up prior to the invasion they will walk all over Taiwan without direct US intervention. What about all the friendly neighbors in the region? They will do absolutely NOTHING; if the US doesn’t come in with a serious and committed military defense there’s virtually no hope for Taiwan.
>China isn’t Russia
Correct. They're a cheap knock off of Russia, which is in itself a cheap knock off of the soviet union.
>taking Chinkonese propaganda at face value
Truly baffling how retarded some people are. They lied about their economy, they lied about their youth unemployment, they lied about the fucking number of people they have yet when it comes to military matters they tell the truth? Tell me, were you born this dumb or did you suffer a traumatic brain injury later in life?
Directly invading it is retarded, China is building an empire and taiwan will want in sooner or later as the mutt influence everywhere is collapse. Nobody will be baited into another conflict anytime soon
Until they commit to a true two-state solution, that is, that they renounce their claims on the mainland and declare themselves to be an entirely distinct polity from the PRC, I don't give a fuck about Taiwan, since this is essentially a Chinese vs. Chinese issue. If the shoe were on the other foot and one of their outlying islands claimed control over Taiwan they'd be behaving precisely the way the PRC is acting right now.
Now here comes the people calling me a Chink because I don't think a American, Japanese, Australian etc. should waste their lives on two sets of Chinks who can't sit down and work it out like adults.
if they publicly declare themselves to be separate from the mainland the mainlanders will invade
they aren't diplomatically isolating themselves for fun you know, its because the PRC is forcing all this upon them
You're not a chink, you're just a colossal moron with zero understanding of the issue. The chinks stated that if Taiwan declares independence they'll invade. This "two-state solution" that your dysgenic ass suggested is precisely what would escalate the conflict.
>The chinks stated that if Taiwan declares independence they'll invade.
Ah yes, China's final warning. I'll file that with all the other things nobody should give a fuck about.
How is an independent Taiwan more of a provocation than claiming dominion over all of the Chinese mainland? Either way it fits the Chinese narrative of Taiwan as the rebellious province who hasn't come to heel yet.
You'd rather just kick the can down the road indefinitely where we have these two Chinas, one of which has no diplomatic recognition of note yet we need to ally ourselves with because one day they will totally take back the mainland mark my words!
nta, but the general reasons for support are
>island chain strategy (permanent)
>mastery of the pacific and thus its trade (permanent)
>technological dependence (temporary)
>discourage autocracts/authoritarians from annexing territory, and thus hurting trade (permanent)
to quote Assistant Secretary of Defense Ely Ratner
>Taiwan is located at a critical node within the first island chain, anchoring a network of U.S. allies and partners—stretching from the Japanese archipelago down to the Philippines and into the South China Sea—that is critical to the region’s security and critical to the defense of vital U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific.
>How is an independent Taiwan more of a provocation than claiming dominion over all of the Chinese mainland?
Because that's been the status quo for well over half a century, you chimp.
>You'd rather just kick the can down the road indefinitely
Yes 'cause time is not on the chinks' side. Their population is crashing even harder than the Euros'.
>Their population is crashing even harder than the Euros'.
China's birth rate: 1.08 children per woman
Taiwan's birth rate: 0.87 children per woman
I don't think this is going to solve itself.
taiwans birth rate does not have much of an impact on chinas capability to invade it
chinas birth rate, however, has a massive impact on their ability to invade
two nations composed of retirees can’t really go to war
Pure copium. You're practically wheezing
I do not understand
please explain
It's similar to the Russia vs Ukraine.
China might or might not blunder but Taiwan will be fucked for decades to come regardless.
But I think the chinks will just wait it out. All those wet dreams about "le invasion" will remain just that - dreams. There's no common sense scenario in which you want something but in order to take it you bomb it to shit. It just defeats the purpose.
Who said anything about "solving itself"? I said that China's worse off in the long run. Their chances of successfully invading primarily depend on the Chinese. The Taiwanese' chances of successfully defending Taiwan primarily depend on the USA. And guess what, Shartistan isn't decreasing in population any time soon.
by claiming that they should have all of china they are in agreement that there should be just one china.
This is also why Taiwan officially claims the same 9 dash line in the SAS as the mainland.
if they where to say screw this we Taiwan now than they aren't a "province in rebellion that the CCP will bring to heel" and than the CCP will look like it failed.
>thinks China is going to forcefully invade Taiwan
Typical retarded US burger brain take. Their just going to bide their time until the first chud president is elected and white Americans are openly hunted in the street. Then they'll just walk right in.
There's only 2 Asian countries that would fight to the death for their homeland and hilariously the US went to war against both of them.
>Typical retarded US burger brain take.
The Chinese themselves have said they would do this, repeatedly.
read up on your Chink war history and their tactics especially recently. They bluster about shit they're not going to do, you should be worried when they stop talking about Tawain.
I don't care about your 4d chess theories, the point is its not a deranged claim which is how you painted it to that anon.
This is near my place. Should I go inside and explore it? I'm curious
If I was in the Taiwanese government I would build a metro system in all the major cities.
Iirc only Tapei has one irl
the chinese plan is to dump millions of liters of liquid nitrogen to create an ice path
China will grow larger
>assault from a high intensity amphibious landing directly into high intensity urban combat, followed by a campaign through mountainous jungle
I unironically want to see them try, the drone footage will be out of this world
>assault from a high intensity amphibious landing directly into high intensity urban combat, followed by a campaign through mountainous jungle
that sounds kino as fuck. there should be an Arma mod for a Taiwan invasion/ defense if it doesn't already exist
I hate the Chinese. That is all
Chad Jinping is winning by default, nobody in Taiwan is going to put up a fight after seeing NATO's dismal failure in Ukraine.
>it's going to be turbo afghanistan
You clearly don't know any Taiwanese. None of them take their military service seriously, all of them try to get out of it and shirk their duties, their equipment is in tatters, and honestly they have no will to fight. They're a bunch of spoiled assholes who think defending their country is beneath them. They're not Ukrainians.
>it's going to be turbo afghanistan
Afghanistan is not an island where you can easily shut down any influx of weapons and supplies once you've taken control of the harbors.
chinks would have a more realistic shot just sending a bunch of their han bug people over to taiwan and demographically out pace the taiwanese
They did that back in the 1600's bro.
>anime girl drinks bud light
Oh no, anime's gone woke!
mindless automaton PLA bugs werent the 1600s chinese
also, theres this little thing we white people invented in the 1400s, its this weird trick called Colonization
Vietnamization/de-Baathification "Clear, hold and build" is horse shit invented by inbred ~~*harvard*~~ alumni/Heritage foundation retards thats been proven to not fucking work for 75 years
uprooting the embedded culture itself with soft power by just grabbing a bunch of random assholes and dumping them in the foreign land you wish to de-stabilize/take over has been the proven standard that actually works for centuries
the only successful "annexation" of taiwan isnt hard power annexing of the government itself (which taiwan parliament is a clusterfuck anyhow) but an integration of Taiwan itself economically and culturally with china to the point getting rid of Taiwan's government is an irrelevant point
Pre-fag flag incident.
china doesnt have to invade taiwan. they just wait a few decades and the chud revolution will destroy the west. they just need to build more ships just to force the west to cancel their welfare payments to build more ships so the chud uprising will happen faster.
Do I need to bring out the graph yet again?
In 2003, forecast china gdp reach US gdp by 2040
In 2022, forecast china gdp reach US gdp by 2035
And this proves small and further away?
You're missing the point. Look at the latest three forecasts and tell me the trend
Latest 3 forecast are made within 3 years by 3 different organizations so I doubt it really means much
>look at the forecasts
>NO WAIT GWEILO DON'T LOOK AT THAT ONE
prease onry use cpc apploved data, ni hao
you dont you try to blockade Taiwan into submission and hope they surrender before USN and allies rock up
>China is a country that can't even feed its own people if it gets blockaded
>Somehow they think invading an island that is critically important to the world's unopposed naval power is a good idea
They wouldn't even reach the shores to get fucked by mountainside fortifications, they'd be dead long before
If China ever did attack, would the United States be justified at instantly launching Tomahawks at the mainland? like at the three gorges dam?
>If China ever did attack, would the United States be justified at instantly launching Tomahawks at the mainland?
Yeah
>like at the three gorges dam?
That would basically be the worst war crime of all time. Worse than just nuking Beijing.
but pol told me it would be fine