Can Venezuela's army and marines reach the river and build up defenses before anyone intervenes?
would Guyana's military even try to defend the contested area, or would they be better off pulling back and waiting for another country to send troops in?
don't tell me it's going to become another western vs russia-block proxy war
I have a better question, can Venezuela afford a conflict? Can they pay to replace the possibly damaged equipment?
Against Guyana? Yes. Against someone who intervenes? Depends on who does.
I doubt it. They'd starve half way there.
You call it Guyana, I call it New Utah.
I think Venezuela would have enough resources, including delicious oil and weapons. But I believe Guyana could outdo them in home field advantage if Venezuelan troops decide to skibidi bop on Guyana soil.
they only have 4000-5000 people in their defense force, while venezula has something like 100,000 as of a few years ago.
NGL the US along with the Caribbean would 100% intervene. The reason why Venezuela suddenly cares about Esequibo again is because they're finding a shit ton of oil there. The current Guyanese oil being drilled is out side of the disputed waters but i'm sure Venezuela is seething about that as well. This also makes the US care a whole lot
QRD? All I know is that Guyana found a shit ton of oil and is getting filthy rich because of it
tensions have been rising in the border recently. a few years ago guyana tried to take venezuela to international courts to get them to drop their territorial claim, but venezuela refused. recently venezuela organized a referendum in its own territory asking the people if the disputed area belongs to them or not. it will be held on december 3rd. some venezuelans believe it could be used as a pretext to send the army in.
i forgot to add, currently the world is distracted with the ongoing wars in israel/gaza and ukraine, and the USA might not want to send troops to latin america during an election year. there is also the brazilian wildcard. it is a perfect opportunity for venezuela to try something. they won't get another chance.
>the USA might not want to send troops
the USA hasn't really been sending troops anywhere so that's kind of a moot point
there were some joint training exercises between the US and Guyana (mostly naval related) but that was a couple years ago. it's not like there's a defense treaty involved. now, ExxonMobil is involved in extracting from Guyana, but that isn't the security guarantee from the US that it used to be given the general political souring on US oil companies (ESPECIALLY after Iraq) and fossil fuels in general - as well as intervention in South America. US support would probably be supply - it might be enforcement of a no-fly zone and potentially even escalating to air support, but it's very, very unlikely that there'd be any American boots on the ground outside of airbases.
more to the point, however, i seriously doubt the territorial claim has Venezuelan public support.
and Brazil's not really a wild card here, they're not going to be happy about an expansionist Venezuela
the problem is that sending weapons and enforcing a no-fly zone is not going to be enough to stop venezuela. the difference in manpower and equipment is just too much. someone is going to have to intervene by sending troops in. this is a good chance for the UK to test its new carriers.
>i seriously doubt the territorial claim has Venezuelan public support.
that is why venezuela is organizing the referendum. "yes" is expected to get >95% of the vote.
>manpower
i swear you think tank addled retards don't understand anything outside of what's on pieces of paper - you actually need their REAL support for them to contribute and not detract from your manpower, you actually need to be able to supply them to be effective, and a fake number on a poll doesn't mean anything outside of the piece of paper it's written on.
i'm not concerned with the propaganda numbers, i'm concerned with public support - if you think those are the same thing, you should be shot
there is venezuelan public support. they legitimately believe that the land is rightfully part of venezuela.
Since when? Dictatorships need a base of support from which they can draw a loyalist military to enforce their will, everything else is bread and circuses. If El Presidente wants to write a manifesto on the historical unity of Venezuala and Guyana and run a sham poll to legitimize it, nobody will stop them. There's literally multiple examples of this style of war currently ongoing my dude.
>sending weapons and enforcing a no-fly zone is not going to be enough to stop venezuela
The land is. Venezuela physically cannot occupy that area. The whole place is insurmountable jungle void of civilization. The only way they can take it is if they land on the Guyanese capital and force them to sign it away.
All they really need to do is kick out the GDF. Then they either get a treaty to have it handed over or get kicked out by a bigger power.
>do a loose sweep of the jungle up to the desired new border
>encircle and destroy with fires any GDF troops that try to defend west of the river
>demarcate the new border and install watch towers, FOBs, and river boat patrols
>allow your domestic companies to begin oil exploitation under armed guard by the military or PMCs
>have your state run drug cartels begin mass cocaine production to fund your black budget chemical or nuclear weapons program (optional)
yes, obviously moving huge supply trains through the region is more or less impossible. but...
1) venezuela doesn't need a massive force to take over the area, since there's not much to take, like you pointed out
2) it goes both ways- this also applies to the guyanans (and whoever intervenes to help them)
3) there are no huge settlements to besiege, just some villages
they could probably rush all the important locations within 24 hrs using helicopters while landing troops in the northern coast, then begin to dig in.
the public in venezula does actually support annexation. i don't know what the people in the area have to say about it, though.
I mean anon, its not like they can say otherwise: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H4QnAe4qs_g&ab_channel=GlobalNews
even members of the opposition who have been imprisoned/exiled by the government and called for the president to be overthrow agree with the territorial claim
I feel like that is the same almost everywhere but people just lie to themselves to feel good. People think Nalvany wouldn't keep pursuing Ukraine and the other groups in Palestine would all love Israel.
Nahh, that ship sailed with the Rupununi revolt.
If anything, it would provide the perfect opportunity to overthrow Maduro once as for all (I wish a nigga would)
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupununi_Uprising
Venezuelan here.
The referendum has a lot more to do with the opposition primaries having a much higher turned out than expected and the election by a landslide of pro free market conservative, María Corina Machado, who the regime banned prior to the primaries to prevent a strong competitor.
Chavismo is seething because that high level of participation is an indectment against the regime and further evidence of the erosion of its popular base of support.
So this whole charade of a referendum for muh esequibo is just the gov wanting to make a show of force and popular support, the intention is having a higher turn out than the opposition primaries.
Thanks anon
also, forgot to say, but guyana does not really have the capability to actually defend itself, in my opinion. they only have like - three battalions, iirc? unless they can pull some utterly extrodinary shit or someone intevenes immediatly it's almost certain that the north of esquiba, at the very least, would be taken by venezula.
Does Venezuela even have a military tho? Senpai they would probably charge in on horses, it wouldn’t be be that hard to defend.
They very much do have a military. Multiple divisions, last I checked, though I don't know how many people are actually in them - they aren't talking much.
their military is roughly 20 times larger
Venezuela literally have F-16 fighters bro.
With no spare parts, a flying death trap.
the fuck is a guyana, it sounds like a fruit
It's a guy with the nickname of Ana
Shouldn't this be Brazil's responsibility?
I do not know if brazil cares.
Brazil doesn't seem to have the capacity or will to stop it
We have the capacity but we don't have any interest in going to war because of that Maduro asshole.
Fuck him and his dictatorship.
How TF would someone even invader this? I guess Venezuela has an overwhelming population advantage but are they really gonna just send a shit ton of troops through the Amazon rainforest?
As from someone from Suriname.
Fook dem Guyanese
There's a 100% chance of an intervention if Venezuela is stupid enough to invade. America isn't going to sit back and let a war happen in its own back yard,
the northern coast of South America is not America's back yard, nor is it considered such
Guyana isn't Cuba
It is.
The venezuelan armed forces are a thirdworldish preatorian guard design to exploit and terrorize their people.
Also, extreme corruption means that their equipment is non functional, is mostly obsolete junk.
This whole Esequino thing is Maduro looking to galvanize support around irredentist crap and wont transcend barking and whinning like a bitch.
This is not going to be Maduro's "Falklands War", I don't think they are that stupid (I wish they were thou), they know the risk of an armed intervention by the US is to high.
The VEN military should be abolished anyway.
Basically this. I’m 99% sure the Venezuelan military is designed only to keep its citizens in line, there’s virtually zero chance they could successfully assault anything other than some capybaras.
QRD read their internet page, sounds like the Dutch & The English will protect their colonial holding if invaded
in the age of satellites and AI any buildup of forces is going to be detected weeks or months ahead of the actual intervention.
it happened in ukraine too but the ukies didn't want to believe the NATO reports.
this time however there's oil involved and the US has been trying for at least a decade to find an execuse to go to war with venezuela to overturn their government, also venezuela unlike russia doesn't have nukes.
they will not hesitate to sweep in and ruin their day.
Guyana is rich in gold and other resources, I could totally see Venezuela trying to take the nation for its resources, but actually holding on to it is a whole other matter. Venezuela is pretty much broke, does anyone actually have up to date info on what they can bring to bare in such a conflict?
Well, Venezuela has an actual army, Guyana Army looks more like a insurgency from Africa.
Im sure Venezuela can steamroll over them
Sure, is the subsequent US intervention that will be the problem for VE.
>US intervention
Nah, I dont think the US has any allies in south america that would support that. Maybe in other times Colombia and Brazil could help, but I dont think Petro or Lula would be cool with it.
French reactions so far?
They made illegal the Venezuelan flag.
>Moscow/Beijing aligned power doing a land grab after Hamas raid
Gee, I wonder what possibly could be going on here. Yeah, it's a fucking problem against a much smaller power with less nu-Soviet military aid gibs in the context of literally groomed by Soviet assets (Leo Slizard, Armand Hammer) POTUS cutting oil deals with Caracas during Coof. All of this probaly with a mind to tempting a Reagan Nicaragua sort of troop commitment.