Do you think this is gonna be the same eternal stalemate as in Donbass during 2014?

Do you think this is gonna be the same eternal stalemate as in Donbass during 2014?

  1. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Yes. But only now the Ukies will have NATO alien tech to hit 300 deep behind Russian lines.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      No, the Russians were not dying in Donbass as they used the locals.
      Now that they have killed off their best troops it just gets worse as each day passes.

  2. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    no. the previous stalemate was sustainable because both sides intentionally undercommitted forces and equipment. both sides will be using bayonet changes across ww1 trenchlines if this is still going more than a couple years

  3. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Seeing as the US is looking to pass on F-16s and maybe F-15s, and the bulk of the Ukies are still training over in like England and Poland and stuff, I'd say Spring/Summer of next year is when you see a real push to reclaim territory. Until then I see the Ukies mostly treading ground and both sides making more conservative movements, espeically if Russia keeps having logistical hubs deleted by gradually longer-ranged missile attacks. Espeically if the winter is mild and Russia loses a critical political card to play (muh gas)

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      Isnt it going to be kind of pathetic if the Ukrainians manage to push Russia out entirely just because they're given old American planes? I mean, the 15s and 16s are over 40 years old at this point.

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        the Russians themselves are relying on Soviet surplus equipment so it seems appropriate

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        later block F16s and F15s to their original form from 40 years ago are basically comparing a 1980 Chevy Impala and 2020 Chevy Impala anon.

        That being said, it's probably a bigger deal that they're getting American equipment and training to go with it since we are the undisputed SEAD/DEAD champions on the planet. Our planes may be old but there's aren't exactly new in many cases, and are probably not as upgraded

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        The F-15 has never been downed in air to air combat in all that time, while scoring over a hundred kills of its own. Our planes are that good.

        • 1 month ago
          Anonymous

          >our doctrine is that good
          Ftfy. The F-15 is a nice plane and all but it’s as successful as it is precisely because it’s not supposed to be some wunderwaffe lone wolf unit, but is instead part of a cohesive fighting force with a ton of support. Get the US and Russia to switch fighters and the US still wins because they actually know how to train and fight.

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            Hold on thats not fair, if we switched fighters we both know the USAF would need 3 months minimum to unfuck whatever is wrong with the Russian ones just to get the DoD to approve it as legal to fly outside White Sands and safe for pilots

  4. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    So what's the hold up for the Ukies? people have been hyping up for this big counteroffensive for months now. Are they still under-equipped for things?

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      I don’t know where the massive counteroffensive meme came from, but nothing big from Ukraine can realistically happen and it’s all Ukrainian hopium. It’s going to take a while to train a force capable of taking back large areas. A lot of people need to be trained, and not only that, but a lot of people that would normally be training the military’s men also need to be trained on the new systems Ukraine is getting from the West.

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        People took Arestovych seriously, he was the main force behind hyping a Kherson counteroffensive, and since Russia did throw BTG's in a shitty supply situation, UA high command were fine with keeping it up.
        But you're right, at it stands UA is in no place to counterattack. Honestly I'm putting my hopium reserves on the 12000+ ukrainian troops trained by the bongs and friends. You can rely on conscripts to hold the lines, train up a new army in the west (by next spring if we take the bong numbers of 12k in four months to be real we should have at least 30k by next spring), arm it with western weapons and use that to start regaining territory in 2023.

        • 1 month ago
          Anonymous

          Herson in two months, I’ll see you there

        • 1 month ago
          Anonymous

          We’ll see how it works out. If Ukraine can get more and more men trained in NATOlands and more countries offer to train, we might see some interesting numbers being fielded. They’ll still need more equipment for their men, too, so we’ll also see what goodies get thrown in. Arestovich seems kinda like a schizo, and so does Garaschenko, but if they’re where this counteroffensive meme started, they’re not really helping their own cause.

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            To play devil's advocate - the announcement of the counter offensive brought a ton of BTG's to the Kherson front, which invites plenty of smoking accidents

          • 1 month ago
            Anonymous

            >Arestovich seems kinda like a schizo
            He's not a schizo, he's a psyopper. It is literally his job to shape public opinion in whatever direction ukrainian government thinks is most advantageous for them.
            Though the funny thing is, he himself keeps saying that all his statements are speculation based on public data, yet vatniks treat him like an official source.

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        It came from Ukrainian twitter accounts and reddit PrepHoleommandos.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      No tanks means their only option is human wave attacks. They choose instead to trade land for time until they get enough equipment to break the stalemate.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      It was a reverse offensive. The Ukraininan army advanced toward Nikolaev

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      Why fight a proper war there when they can keep a constant insurgency, putting russians over and over into meatgrinder? They won't freeze the conflict and russia can't advance, Ukraine can go full taliban mode until russians decide to do a "gesture of good will".
      Ukraine with lend lease can keep the war forever. You think russia can afford that? The goal of USA is to bleed russia dry, which they will gladly do at the cost of ukies and some weapons they send it to them.

  5. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Donbass was forced into a stalemate by external powers. It's not going to happen here, or at least anytime soon.

  6. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    That old stalemate was predicated on not antagonizing Russia. That question's already done and gone, there's no reason for Ukr to not try their hardest. Side note: the current situation is what the appeasement of the old stalemate gets you.

  7. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    I think a syrian stalemate because this now will include occasional jets and missiles

  8. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    >Do you think this is gonna be the same eternal stalemate as in Donbass during 2014?
    Not eternal. The difference is in equipment losses. Things like drones, HIMARS, western artillery with guided round, SAM's, HARM and other PGM's combined with NATO satellites and Ukrainian on the ground intel is seeing Russia's tanks, artillery, aircraft and ammunition slowly chipped away.
    Thing is, Russia can't respond in kind, they don't have the accuracy and wouldn't know where to hit if they did so since they can't advance all they can do is take blow after blow. Thing is, they can't make new heavy equipment, all they can do is try to salvage whatever still works from the Soviet days. So their army gets more and more dated while the opposite happens for Ukraine.
    Ukraine gets it's destroyed drones and artillery replaced and this is before we even reach the impending western aircraft. Russia is stuck in a trap, can't advance at more than a snails pace while taking heavy loss, can't retreat because of pride. If they stay too long though, they lose the one thing that made them a power, their army, which is really the left over Soviet equipment that they can not rebuild. Worse, without those tanks and artillery they can't hold Ukrainian land.
    These leaves Russia with a terrifying dilemma, look weak and have all your satellites countries disconnect from you or become too weak to stop them. The best move for Russia is to go, if they don't, they'll lose it all on pride.

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      Once we get them on American stuff I think you'll see the logistical situation change a lot. We can pretty safely draw old F16s from the US Air National Guards (they'll be replaced by later block F16s and eventually F35s anyway) for a LONG time, and they're still in production. We have an armies worth of old M1 (ie., og M1s) sitting in the desert too. Sure it's a 105 model, but at least we can produce them and keep them supplied with hundreds of them.

      • 1 month ago
        Anonymous

        we don't have any 105 models in storage
        they've been gone for 15 years
        pic rel is all active abrams variants

    • 1 month ago
      Anonymous

      Nobody ever lost money betting that Russians would let their pride goad them into bad decisions. The bad side of that is without a conventional military deterrent the Russians will HAVE to start demonstrating nuclear capability again, and if any of their tests fails they might hit the button to send EVERYTHING and pray that enough still works to end the US as a threat to them.

  9. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    No, the pro-russia fighters are gonna get jackshit from Russia and probably given order 227. So they are pretty fucked considering that they don't have anywhere near the manpower and supplies for that order to be effective.

  10. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    6 months and the Donetsk front remains unchanged. what's up with that?

  11. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    Ruskies will probably break through at Soledar-Bakhmut at some point and push the line to around Slavyansk-Kramatorsk.

  12. 1 month ago
    Anonymous

    already is and has been for months, unless russia is waiting for winter it's a complete stalemate.

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