ITT anons try and guess how the counteroffensive is executed. In a few months after all is said and done we will revisit this thread and see if anyone is close. My prediction is that it won’t happen
Preparedness & self-sufficiency community
ITT anons try and guess how the counteroffensive is executed. In a few months after all is said and done we will revisit this thread and see if anyone is close. My prediction is that it won’t happen
which side, dumbass.
Sorry. For Ukraine.
Why not both, lets keep it interesting.
I think ziggers can try to stir shit in Abkhazia to claim it as a win, like they said about Donetsk/Luhansk.
Ukies already stated they want all their territories back, so rush to Mariupol this is? Instead of hellish urban warfare in Donetsk they could cut the land corridor to Crimea but who knows how long can they penetrate in that direction.
Why would Russia counterattack, they're currently attacking
Ukraine counterattacks Bakhmut. Screw maneuver warfare, this will be a fight of pure attrition.
doubt, if they get momentum theyll just flank the city and break supplies
They attack the Svatove line in the north because there are no really defenses after it. If they break through the initial defensive line, they can flank the entire Russian defenses in the Donbass
That's true but at the same time if they exhaust their best units and equipment on retaking worhless Luhansk oblast they'll struglle with rest of the terittory that actually matters.
Maybe. Thing is, if they get Luhansk they are very close to fucking over the entire Eastern Russian front. This forces Russia to use the currently-damaged bridge to supply literally their entire army.
Also, Ukraine has managed to hit the bridge before during these kinds of circumstances. If they wanna play risky, they probably could destroy the bridge. So if they take Luhansk and do that, they will basically decapitate the Russian army and leave them dangling in southern Ukraine.
LEAVE THE FUCKING ANIMAL ALONE
I think he's just trying to get it out of the hole so that he can keep digging.
Luhansk is the main logistical hub for Russia into Ukraine with a lot of warehouses and rear echelon concentrations. Taking it will be a big hit to Russia's ability to supply the rest of occupied Ukraine, although the Ukies would need to drive to Mariupol to completely cut off Russia forces
They would easily divert supplies through Donetsk oblast.
The armored vehicles don't work well in mountain areas like that.
The high amount of armor that the ukies have accumulated would point towards an offensive in the flatlands in the south were they can operate in mostly himars range.
Could include a large series of river crossings with small fast boats to draw the Russians towards the east and than attack somewhere between mykolyev and Mariupol with the armored units.
If the Russians do not reinforce the east and keep their forces west than try to expand the bridgeheads and begin to move heavier equipment till the Russian do begin to redeploy east.
Must create a damneif you and damned if you don't situation.
Only than when the offensive looks definitely focused south a possible norther offfensive could happen when the Russian don't expect it.
Wait, you're serious? You think there are mountains in donbabwe?
What an absolute retard
show us the fabled luhansk mountains anon
I was agreeing
oh, carry on then
depends how many troops does russia have reserved in belgorod oblast
theres one road out of southern belogrod into ukraine under russian control, it going to be a rush to take the supply line before heading south
>kings & generals
Really love their content, one of the best remaining channels on jootube imo
They decide to move into Russia because it is easier. The they roll up the Russian line.
Or they go for Moscow, but that is too cool to be real.
>they attack Belarus, and then head straight toward Moscow
What most people are expecting right now is that it will happen sometime during summer, it'll be risky and probably focused around Meltipol/Kherson. Either that or they feint and go around Bakhmut to head closer to Luhansk.
For that to be a *prediction* you have to at east provide some reasoning. Otherwise, you are just running your month.
There are two Options:
1. Ukraine wants easy gains. In that case they will probably counter attack in Luhansk and Bahkmut, where Russia has nearly exhausted itself due to constant Attacks.
2. Ukraine wants to end the war with this attack. In this case they need to cut of Crimea, nothing else is enough to end the war. The best Option is probably a main effort towards Melitopol, with a secondary attack over the River near Kherson to maximize the load on the supply chain in the area.
In both cases the offensive will not be as fast as the one in Kharkiv and will cause high losses, but i think the Russians might be stupid enough to let them pull this off.
>Ukraine wants to end the war with this attack.
Nobody is fucking saying this least of all Ukrainians themselves. This offensive won't end the war.
They dont even need to make it to melitpol.
There is only one railroad track and its actually pretty far north and close to the front.
They wouldnt even need to take any towns just the outskirts.
If they just take the outskirts of melitpol then it also cuts all road traffic but that needs a much further push.
I predict there will be some sort of river operation. Whether it's a main attack, a fient or a diversionary effort I think something will definitely happen around Kherson.
It just seems like too big of an opportunity to not exploit in some fashion. If the Russians don't take it seriously then the Ukrainians might be able to establish a bridgehead. If the Russians do take it seriously then it will bleed their resources away from the main axis of attack.
A push toward Mariupol would be Kino as hell and emotionally satisfying, but it sounds risky.
>A push toward Mariupol would be Kino as hell and emotionally satisfying, but it sounds risky.
Riskier than attempting Donetsk or Lugansk?
Probably from Zaporizhzhia and push down west of melitopol.and try and split the highway between kherson and melitopol all while making river crossing noises after it starts. might make vatniks make hard choice about which direction to defend if they can't do both.
Amphibious landing on the southern edge of Crimea. It's the last place they'll expect it. Shitposting aside I'm hyping up some amphibious shit, whether it's crossing the Dnipro or whatever. I don't care that it's a suicide mission, I believe.
>It's the last place they'll expect it.
They literally have been building trench defenses on the off chance Ukraine is crazy enough to try
>building trench defenses
We all know what those look like
I never said they were GOOD trenches
If the Russians stopped being pussies and used the Black Sea fleet they could start actually softening targets to help troop movements but instead they’d rather throw the lives of thousands of Russians in a meat grinder than give support at the risk of loosing ships.
What fleet? Did you see the absolute state of the Mosvka in the leaked documents? Those boats can't do shit other than carry a missile truck on it.
Don’t they have fucking canons?
What are they gonna do? Shoot something slightly over the horizon and die to an anti-ship missile? They'll hunker in their coves and get mooobilized into the land army like everyone else.
So has the terrain dried up or is it currently impassible mud? Because I heard it was an exceptionally dry spring this year.
Reminder that Milla Jovovich is Russo-Ukrainian.
>exceptionally dry spring
> laser guided munitions
> GPS guided munitions
> semi-autonomous drones
> depleted uranium armor
Ground conditions are still a major factor.
Huh, I guess for once Peter Zeihan was right, it's basically just a waiting game until the soil is no longer something your armor will sink in
Meant to reply to
People need to temper their expectations. Too much talk of Ukrainians taking Tokmak within a week or two of the offensive's opening and rushing to Melitopol by the end of June.
Russia has lost this war. The only thing yet to be decided is what % if any of Russia's military and ground forces remain afterwards. Every day without a Russian withdrawal makes the situation even more catastrophic for Russia as its logistics are already incapable of supplying the men it has in front lines in Ukraine or rotating them. Every day Russia looses artillery duels and irreplaceable equipment and trained crews. Even nuclear weapons cannot win Russia this war.
>People need to temper their expectations.
Reason with me how Russia stays any kind of conventional military power if they stay in Ukraine at the current loss rate this summer and that's without any Ukranian offensive. If Ukraine hits the Russian forces with 15 mechanised brigades (NATO says they have trained at equipped fully at least 9, including engineering, mechanised infantry 4 tank battalions, engineering, recovery, signals, logistics, medical units all integrated ) the Russian ground forces will cease to exist. The Russian forces may start routing anyway due to a lack of basics like food and small arms ammunition.
>Every day without a Russian withdrawal makes the situation even more catastrophic for Russia as its logistics are already incapable of supplying the men it has in front lines in Ukraine or rotating them. Every day Russia looses artillery duels and irreplaceable equipment and trained crews.
My instinct is putin out of ignorance, hubris or spite will grind the Russian army into scrap and then drop dead from cancer or something. Russia will continue to play a price for his stupidity for at least decades. That's also assuming a civil war doesn't occur.
Even if he dies before it happens, a civil war is inevitable. The Russian Federation will not survive the long-term repercussions of this war. By splitting up, the various republics that are not ethnically Slavic would be able to bypass the economic punishments that will not be lifted in the foreseeable future.
I don't think anyone expects them to just sweep Russia and retake all their lost territory, more that they do enough damage to Russia's forces for the Duma to seriously consider retreating to the 2014.
to the 2014 borders, I meant
What are you on about? Russia has utterly lost this war. Its absolutely in Ukraine's interest to keep destroying Russian conventional equipment NOW while they can and keep destroying it while Russia is being stupid and incompetent and badly lead and commanded so Russia can never be a military threat to Ukraine again. Ukraine has the opportunity to destroy another 1500-3000 Russian APC/MBTS/MLRA/Artillery and anywhere from 45000-60000 Russian personnel including the crews that are hardest to train. This just sets up teh Ukrainians for an even more comprehensive victory of 'total zigger death'. That's not just a meme-banter, that is the correct goal if they want to be able to rebuild and enjoy the peace, they cannot have a belligerent Russia with any credible conventional military power left on their border, the Russian ground forces and their equipment must be destroyed for territorial victory to become a stable situation.
>for the Duma to seriously consider retreating to the 2014.
The Duma is completely irrelevant,. Russia is not a democracy, it is a dictatorship headed by Putin and the organised crime connected KGB (not FSB) which never went away.
>I don't think anyone expects them to just sweep Russia
They have swept Russia. Russia has lost the war. Completely, utterly and irrevocably
>The Duma is completely irrelevant,
Not true, but it's not exactly going to oppose Putin when 324 of its 450 seats are his party.
>>The Duma is completely irrelevant,
>Not true, but it's not exactly going to oppose Putin when 324 of its 450 seats are his party.
Again. Putin is a dictator you fucking retard and the ass clowns in teh duma are fucking irrelevant. He runs the opposition as strawmen, the only real opposition is murdered or in prison. Are you actually fucking retarded?
A multi-kilometre traffic jam has formed at the Kerch Bridge on the way out of Crimea, with drivers estimating that they will have to stand in it for about a day. Video of the traffic jam has appeared online.
In addition, Flightradar reported that a Russian government-operated Tu-204-300 aircraft left the temporarily occupied peninsula, but it is not known who was on the plane. It is noted that it made its first stop in Sochi.
It is known that the plane belongs to a special flight unit "Rossiya", which provides air transportation of Russian officials, heads of Russian security services or the armed forces. The unit is subordinated to the Russian presidential administration.
No counteroffensive. Ukraine keeps using its artillery advantage in rage accuracy and targeting data to eliminate Russian artillery crews, guna, mlrs and special equipment such as counterbattery radars and electronic warfare and engineering vehicles while also eliminating any Russian forces attempting to manoeuvre in APCs with obsolete tank support. Make Hay while the Sun Shines. Keep destroying 20-50 Russian armoured vehicles and artillery pieces and their crews along with hitting ammunition dumps. Keep partisans wiping out Russian logistic vechi8cles and fuel tankers. By august 1500 additional Russian armoured vehicles gone along with another 45000 Russian troops. Why not? If the killing is good why take even a small risk. Instead hone and improve the armoured spear and when the weather is absolutely perfect, the ground perfect and when 70% of Russian artillery, MLRS and APCs along with all their counter battery radar and engineering vehicles and fuel tankers 100% of their fully functional MBTs and 100% of the pre war Russian military is dead or maimed THEN attack and keep attacking destroying every depot, ammo dump and Russian military position within 200KM of the Ukrainian border capturing at much ammunition and equipment as is abandoned.
What other ships besides the Moskva sank?
Russia has dug deep into defensive positions, if Ukraine tries an offensive they will see major loses and Kiev will be forced to capitulate after that.
that's pepega you dolt
FUCKING NORMALFAGS GET THE FUCK OFF MY BOARD
>Russia has dug deep into defensive positions, if Ukraine tries an offensive they will see major loses and Kiev will be forced to capitulate after that.
Lovely b8. Its so completely retarded and disconnected from the reality of manoeuvre warfare or what those armoured battalions of Ukraine are capable of...I just had to nibble. tell me why the Ukrainian forces can just go through them and behind them and how the Russians in those trenches with be supplied if there are 9 Ukrainian armoured battalions behind them and the Ukrainian National Guard units that are currently holding them in front of them. Tell me why Saddams trenches did not work against armoured battalions in Gulf War 1 0r 2?
Very subtle anon, I like it. I see I'm not the only one irked by that.
Are you always online?
>Are you always online?
they should start executing them, make it proof that words can hurt people if you utter the wrong ones
Some of them die now and again but generally those hits are reserved for the ones actually trying to disable public utilities. Many of them also live in Russian embassies or in western nations as oligarchs children or extended family for example or have Russian parent who has attained citizenship. Absolute scum but obviously killing or deporting them is up to each government and most are waiting to do so when Putin goes. They will all be going back to Russia whether their like it or not. In a way that is worse than death.
Most of the army seems to be concentrated in the South and Donbass. Most of the defenses and fortfications seems to be concentrated there as well.
My guess is that they will do a few skirmishes in the south to pretend that theyre building up to take Donetsk/Melitopol/Crimea. It’ll be Kharkiv 2.0 where they’ll distract russians in the south again and invade from the north in Luhansk. Russians have fortified their line of defenses for months now. Penetrating it would be no easy task even with a good army and decent western equipments. Luhansk front seems to be the most vulnerable and less defended region. Probably likely there are less mines and defense to get through and potentially a more secure victory that results in minimal loss.
I dont think this offensive will be as impressive and fast like Kharkiv where the Ukies took back an entire oblast in a few days. It’ll be a slower offensive if it does happen.
At this point, I think they should play with Russia’s mind and not start an actual offensive. Just announce that you’re doing an offensive and do nothing for weeks. Keep striking Russian bases from afar with missiles while you’re mentally fucking them. It’ll play with Russia’s head. You can already see its extremely effective… Wagners and Russian Army are already in-fighting and it seems like morale is Another reason why I think its better to not attack now is that Ukies havent had enough time to train with western equipments yet. Give more time for the Ukies to get trained on Abrams, Leopards and Challengers. The counter-offensive could also very well backfire if they’re not careful enough, its a very risky move.
Time is Russia’s enemy. Ukraine gets ammo and equipments every month, there is no rush. Play with their mind, keep attacking russian infrastructures with long-range missiles like you’re already doing. Meanwhile, Ukies get more and more tanks, missiles, ammos. Russia is falling apart from the inside.
*I think they should start an offensive but only in 1-2 months
>Russians have fortified their line of defenses for months now.
So what? the Ukrainians could simply cross into Russia and attack from behind. Static fortifications don't matter if you have armoured battalions. The Russian forces have pinned themselves. How do you feed them when 9 armoured brigades are rampaging behind their lines? No. The reason that there is no offensive is simple. The current situation is very good for destroying Russian equipment and crews and as long as that equipment and those crews are being destroyed daily at these levels there is no reason to change what is a good situation if your goal is the complete extermination of the Russian ground forces and their conventional equipment. Why attack when only 53% of Russias apcs and artillery is dead, why not play cards until it is 70 and roll over the remaining 30% even more easily. Total zigger death. TZD
> So what? the Ukrainians could simply cross into Russia and attack from behind.
Thats why I think it would be dumb to attack from Donbass/Zaporizhzhia where there is the most concentrated defense. More likely to have bigger losses. Go through Luhansk, breach through a few of their defensive lines there to create holes and if the offensive goes well, head to the south and encircle them in a city like Luhansk.
>The reason that there is no offensive is simple. The current situation is very good for destroying Russian equipment and crews and as long as that equipment and those crews are being destroyed daily
I dont disagree with you. Ukraine can just wait this shit out. Its Russia that is screwed over time. I dont think a counter-offensive needs to be rushed
>I dont disagree with you. Ukraine can just wait this shit out. Its Russia that is screwed over time. I dont think a counter-offensive needs to be rushed
Let's say they did rush and hit a home run and the Russians withdrew in back into Russia with 40% of their APCs and Artillery and a core of combat experienced gun and vehicle crews. What kind of peace will Ukraine enjoy? No. They need to set things up so Russia is as reduced as possible and the final offensive captures and destroys as much equipment and crews as possible laving Russia disarmed and incapable of military belligerence for a generation. It took the USSR and 60 years for Russia to build up the stockpile of arms it is burning through, now they are cut off from western materials and vehicles, parts and components with an economy teh size of Italy but under sanctions with most customers gone they will not be able to become a conventional military power again. What is the point in a victory for Ukraine if it only leads to another belligerent Russian ultra nationalist loon who comes back in 10 years with this BMPs and T55s and another army of vegetables if Ukraine lets Russia survive with half its apcs guns and crews. The aim has to be total zigger death. Best to play the artillery advantage and enjoy wrecking Russia daily and only when that option is gone fist fuck Russia back into the 19th century
Yup, agreed. If they rush it, the war will end and Russia will try to slowly build back their reputation and build back their country. Fuck them up slowly but surely. The more we wait, the more permanent damage we will inflict on Russia.
Patience is key. Play with their minds. They’ll start fighting themselves (which is already happening) and it will only get worst. Ukraine can just sit there and watch Russia rot while they don’t sacrifice much. Russian doesnt want to admit it but sanctions are actullally really fucking them up. Losing all of Europe and NA as clients is a huge deal no matter how much they cope about it. Their whole economy runs on energy.
Worst outcome is… Putin does another wave of conscription. It wouldn’t really change much. In fact, it’ll be a bad thing for russians. Even less young people in your workforce, even more deaths… nothing to help this demographic crisis that is already happening.
Just wait it out and test the waters. Do a few skirmishes, analyze where their defenses are meanwhile their morale are in the dumps (many soldiers arent getting paid, this can’t be good long-term for them). I dont think NOW would be good. Russians are on high alert right now because they think Ukraine will attack after all these announcements, it would feel too predictable. Wait until June-July… hell maybe even later. They’ll be laughing that the offensive was just a myth and a cope. Train your troops more, make them get used to western equipments, wait for more western equipments to come in. Wait until they have their guards down and penetrate their defense swiftly. Russia is completely cornered economically, they know theyre on a time-ticking bomb which is why they tried to do peace negotiations not too long ago and are desperately spamming Iranian drones on infrastructures. They want to end this war but they know Ukraine has the upper hand now.
I recall reading somewhere that Ukraine has at least prepared about 9-10 brigades (about 30-50k troops) that are well equipped with western equipment and training that could participate in a counter offensive. If true, then if they concentrate and coordinate well they might be able to take back a decent chunk (perhaps several to a few thousand sq km at best) of territory on Russian controlled flanks, *if* the Russians were to perform better than they have been so far. Ukraine has equipment and ammunition, it just needs to be careful about troop and logistic attrition. Experienced troops that have been trained on western equipment and seen combat in them need to be recycled back into a training corps to train fresh troops like the US did in WW2.
9-15 brigades, 9 fully NATO trained and veteran crewed that could be considered elite in the theatre and another 6 that are still building strength but have good elements. All of this sperate form what is holding teh Russian lines with full rotation. Its a utter disaster for Russia.
Pravda is still around? Aren't they the paper that they used to say that "the news has no truth and the truth has no news" in the Soviet era?
>Pravda is still around? Aren't they the paper that they used to say that "the news has no truth and the truth has no news" in the Soviet era?
Pravda, like Lenin a poisoned chalice delivered to Russia a s free gift from the Kaiser. The first printing press for it was on the same closed train that Lenin and his bolsheviks and their trainload of forget roubles was on.
That wasn't my question, I just didn't think the newspaper survived the USSR's fall because so much else went out of business
Lies never go out of business in Rußia.
Someone make some more Ukraine threads I don't think there's enough of them on PrepHole yet.
Fuck all edition
moving into Transnistria nd capture whatever they have left in equipment.
speedboat assault from Nikolaev to the Zaporizhzhia power plant. Use the power plant as cover to establish a crossing.
Option A would actually be funny.
Imagine the butthurt when the Russian enclave the worked so hard on gets steamrolled over night.
I've seen so many of these threads. Why do ppl never mention chudstria?
Unironic question btw. Ive heard that place has a boatload of shells, and is barely defended.
because its basically a gamble if any od that equipment is useful or not
why waste a ton of resources on something even the russians dont prioritize to recover?
Maybe Ukraine had compromised the chud garrisons. That would be kino.
Imagine being a Kremlin shill and not spamming your glorious victory over hohols. You deserve to die in a gulag
chudstria is a notoriously corrupt breakaway state of a notoriously corrupt nation in a notoriously corrupt part of the world, everything that wasn't sold off is likely to explode if you knock it over.
The fun part is that after Ukraine wins the war, chudstria and Belarus are next. Guaranteed.
I think the counter-offensive is like Bakhmut.
>OK, here the conditions for Russian advance under which we leave, it'll take a week or two probably.
>Its been six months, what the fuck do we do, go anyway?
>Might as well stay I guess.
The threat of the counter-offensive is probably fucking with Russian forces so much its almost a shame to actually do it.
random question regarding Ukraine's soviet tank fleet
ive been binging on info today as I didn't follow beyond a few vids each week from my fave garden gnometoobers. If I'm even roughly in the ballpark - Ukraine should still have roughly roughly 300-500 T72 tanks between their own and captured tanks and around 200-300 of their own T64s and then sprinkle the random other soviet tanks.
I feel like we've seen so few recently from Ukies - but going by confirmed losses and even being generous they should still have a pretty large tank force of soviet/domestic equipment.
Are we going to see a lot of these also make appearances in the offensive with other forces outside of the assault groups we know about from the leaks and such?
I can't remember where it was mentioned in one of those random Ukie 15-20minute propaganda videos back in January/february when there was still a bunch of shit going on about what tanks Ukies would get and when. However one of the commanders in the bunker being interviewed actually mentioned at the time that their tank fleets were still very much intact despite significant losses that pale next to Russian losses.
They referenced that they've retained around 70% of their tank fighting power through captured equipment as well. The main issue is that almost all of their equipment has seen heavy use at some point in the war. Another guy they interviewed was a logistical/maintenance officer and mentioned how even though soviet equipment is considered rugged it's still be using to the extremes and at its limit and their military hasn't managed to keep everything in great shape either and many tanks/vehicles were pushed into service with existing issues.
They'll cannibalize units not worth restoring and also haven't shifted equipment en masse without necessity or some shit basically saying they've kept a lot of their capable combat units in reserve and along other borders (kyiv/northern border/belarussian border)
They focus on continuing to use equipment with issues before salvaging because they in general still don't have enough equipment for their active troops in the field so anything counts. (Ie the busted tank that still fucked up vatniks and ran them over in the trench)
Also mentioned they have something like 20 T80's that have been in battle but no battle damage that are now out of service just because of mechanical & maintenance issues and there's no parts.
TLDR: Ukraine still has lot of tanks in probably better condition than Russia's entire remaining fleet however they're in no shape for a sustained counter offensive when maintenance can't even be sustained on defense.
russia takes 4 more regions
Do you actually think spamming here will make the Russian failures go away and make them suddenly competent?
The only Ukrainian Region Russia currently controls is Crimea, and they got that 8 years ago.
I heard “rumours” that there will be a large scale operation where our armed forces will be pushing all along the frontline, including day D on the east side of Dnipro river. Sounds obvious that the main attack force will be sent in a place where the Russian defense is weakest in order to gain momentum.
You're probably right about the probing attacks. Once the "actual" offensive begins, you know Kraken and TDF are going to probing like hell, exploiting whatever weaknesses they can find. Crossing the Dnipro though? I don't get it, do they seriously want to risk their new tanks and IFVs doing that?
Our small groups(several boats,about 50-100 men) do raids near Enerhodar and Nova Kakhovka since the liberation of Kherson. I think that they firstly may try to land several infantry units without vehicles to secure the further landing of IFVs. The Dnipro river is huge and you cant control every meter of it. But yeah, I agree that its a very risky business and probably a one way ticket. Russian incompetence is still a thing though, they can just miss it until its too late because their best troops are elsewhere
Artillery is gonna be a bitch in call cases. I guess try to take the path of least resistance; maybe that is in fact across the Dnipro.
Vatniks here are thirdies, not intel agents lol
Should you really be disclosing such things in a place vatmorons can read?
If I know this, Im sure they heard it too. Also, Im not sure how trustworthy my sources are. Some rumours are circulating among soldiers and I repeat them.
I also noticed one thing - almost all rumours are circulating regarding the South - Kherson oblast, Melitopol, Mariupol, Crimea. Almost no rumours about Kreminna, Svatove, Bakhmut etc. makes you think. I wouldn’t be surprised if those rumours is a part of informational operation to distract the enemy
Do your own homework, FSB goon.
>Ukraine launches probing attacks across the front while keeping the exploitation element hidden
>Realize the Russians aren't just sitting behind rocks and have actually built layered defenses and strongpoints across the breadth of the front
>Try to arty/rocket spam the main positions - has minimal effect because trenches actually work
>Go ahead with assaults anyways
>Have entire battalions die
>Realize frontal assaults are a hell of a lot different than drone attacks
>Realize that Bradleys die the same as M113's when hit by Kornets
>Have the global political machine shit out some kind of victory out of the whole ordeal while you secretly begin bracing for 2024 when you will probably no longer be able to sustain a front anymore due to attrition
Don't get me wrong, a lot of Russians will die. But for everyone thinking that Ukraine is gonna somehow take Crimea or break the Russian lines in some way is drinking WAY too much kool aid. You could even replace Ukraine with the US Army and this would still be a very daunting military operation. Having a cut rate military comprised of units who have been created in the last few months alone - a lot of people are going to die. I know this board is filled with shills and people treating this war like it's a football game but goddamn.
>Implying Ukraine is just going to zerg rush the defenses
They aren't russian
You mean the thing that they have been doing throughout the war? Granted, they are attempting basic fire and movement and fire and maneuver with artillery support but suffice to say; they're still going to push mechanized infantry in line towards the enemy positions in hopes of gaining fire superiority and assaulting into them. You're not going to have a bunch of mobilized infantry with only a few months of training conduct complex stormtrooper raids fucking NVA style to exploit the defenders positions. My personal and very important opinion is that most modern mechanized infantry doctrine is laughably shit since the US military mostly won in WWII by just sending "moar" towards the front and killing the enemy with a shit ton of firepower, mix that with a bad understanding of Soviet mechanized doctrine that permeated throughout the Cold War into the present day and you arrive at modern US armored and mechanized infantry doctrine, which is bad, very very bad. Especially when unlike the US military, you don't have a massive advantage in firepower and can just bomb everything to oblivion. The Ukrainians and Russians in that regard are pretty equal for the most part.
>a bunch of mobilized infantry with only a few months of training
Led by hardened veteran officers and NCOs and spearheaded by hardened veteran brigades. Try again, vatmoron.
>stormtrooper raids fucking NVA style
No need for that when you're bringing an overwhelming local firepower advantage in the form of multiple armored and mechanised infantry brigades.
>modern US armored and mechanized infantry doctrine, which is bad, very very bad
So bad it in fact ludicrously shitstomped every enemy it ever faced, including a bunch that were quite more impressive than the shitshow that's calling itself the modern Russian Army.
that Bradleys die the same as M113's when hit by Kornets
tbf the natural enemy of an M113 is not a Kornet but 50 cals and RPGs. Bradleys will be an obvious upgrade compared to Kherson's M113 action.
Kek. Considering you can buy Russian defenses online maybe not
I want a cope toblerone
Almost fell for this until you mentioned th Kornet
$0.69 has been deposited into your account, thank you!
Very generous of you to donate a week's worth of your wages
>Russians aren't just sitting behind rocks and have actually built layered defenses and strongpoints across the breadth of the front
you do realize that those are mostly just one of the many money laundering schemes that russian glowies do on occupied territories?
you can literally go and look at the fortifications now if you want. they are extensive and are everywhere. russia isn't just an ai on low difficulty that wont adjust to new realities or see an extremely telegraphed offensive and do nothing
>russia isn't just an ai on low difficulty that wont adjust to new realities or see an extremely telegraphed offensive and do nothing
First of all Russia is no longer a competent military or even a unified one. Secondly the pre-invasion professional Russian military with quasi modern equipment is gone. They are dead or maimed and the equipment is destroyed. The 'fortifications' are fucking irrelevant and you may be new to war and strategy but you really need to understand that static fortifications have been completely irrelevant against armoured manoeuvre warfare since Rommel went into France as well demonstrated by Saddam getting creamed in gulf war 1. Russia can't adjust to shit because Russia does not own the initiative or make decisions any more. Russia does not decide whether Europe buys its oil or gas any more. Russia does not decide what weapons Ukraine gets. Russia has no capacity to defeat the Ukrainians, rebuild its economy, stop sanctions, rearm itself or stop the Ukrainians reducing its military permanently daily. An 'AI' in a video game clicks on a map and something happens. Putins alcoholic generals click on a map and maybe nothing happens, or actually unexpectedly the unit dies when it is spotted by a drone or maybe the unit just does nothing., Maybe the click never even make sit to the unit or the unit just ignores it, maybe the unit doe snot even exist or maybe it has no ammunition and last ate when the wife of one of the men payed a criminal to drive a stolen car there with some potatoes. The Russian military has been reduced to a bunch of barely trained poorly armed men waiting to die commanded by the most incompetent, corrupt and worthless officers and politicians while the majority of the Russian public loudly clap. Russia can't adjust to anything, it has lost this war and will be pushed around as the Ukrainians and the world sees fit to do. Russia no longer has a say or a choice or possibility of decision.
fortifications do work in this war and have worked in countless wars of the past.
we had massive air power in the gulf war that rendered them useless. even if we didnt have the air power iraq had zero advantage in any other field. iraqs afvs couldn't even get a visual on what killed them 90% of the time. they had no chance.
static fortifications worked in 1940s france too. the maginot line did its job and forced an attack into belgium.
in kherson when ukraine started their offensive it didn't go well despite the final result. some light fortifications and combat power parity was the difference between a kharkov level good will gesture and a controlled retreat with minimal equipment losses. there is no reason to think that this will be any different. the western equipment while being better than anything else on the field will be counterbalanced by the immense fortifications over all axis of advance.
Not even taking a side here, but I swear there cannot be a more midwit take than:
>static fortifications are irrelevant against armored maneuver warfare
you mean like those trenches on crimean beach facing Bulgaria?
Be real: you copied this from Copelord, didn't you?
this. the dragondentures with rip hoholkraine apart
>Realize the Russians aren't just sitting behind rocks
That's a loaded statement, you horrible cunt.
They know where the enemy is, and how it is entrenched.
Look, I agree about Ukie chances being relatively slim, albeit better than you present them.
But the US? moron.
You absolute fucking moron baboon retard. You are the blackest gorilla retard moron.
If the US decide to wipe kill all Russians on UA soil, there is very little Russia can do about that besides NOOK. The overmatch in capabilities and quantities is downright apocalyptic.
>You could even replace Ukraine with the US Army and this would still be a very daunting military operation
It is here that you crossed the line from speculation into delusion.
Probably real slow and methodical, trying to cripple operations around the front bit by bit, and nothing like what we saw in Kherson. It's what I do.
There won't be a counterattack.
Striking logistics bases for weeks without saying a word, so gradual few will even notice it beyond SMOOKER memes. A grinding offensive in one area for a few weeks to draw attention there.
Then bam, they'll assault in an area that's not being paid attention to - just like the thunder run and Kherson. It won't even be a huge territorial change in the grand scheme of things, then it'll just continue to roll with more bites taken every week until something breaks.
trust me the "expert" commentator here will forget that the Putin has an ally in the north as well as his own men. These is fresh troops that keep Ukraine tied up and can attack at any second and attack on NATO supply route coming in westerly. Russia can play a game of cat and mouse attrition, and trust me when Ukraine attack south, Belarus attacks south to force Ukraine to move back north, while loses men/equiptment in the process. In a month Belarus can call on additional reserves and make really a headache on northern front. trust me there will be setbacks in this counteroffensive that smartass here do not see coming
>Lukashenko is going to risk his own neck to save Putins ass
don't you have potatoes to peel?
Bro....Belarus's entire armed forces like like 50,000 dudes. More importantly, a good chunk of it is used explicitly to keep Lukashenko in power and can never leave. People forget this but like at least half the country hates the guy, and they REALLY hate that he's making their country Russia's bitch.
2 more potatoes to peel?
Having seen Lukashenko's reaction to the Finnish NATO accession, I'll believe in a Belarusian expeditionary force when I see geolocated footage of one.
Can you imagine what would happen if Luka puts a few thousand men on the march and they accidentally stray ten meters off the path onto the territory of a NATO member? I mean, it'll probably get downplayed and an Article 5 enactment will be averted in the end, but for the first few days everybody will be on the edge of their seats.
Poland sends half a million troops with all their equipment, pulls a Mao in the Korean War and says "no what are you talking about, we're not officially entering the war, these are just proud polish volunteers who have come to help their ethnic brothers"
While I would be kneeling so hard my legs would descend to the earth's core, even in a fantasy that's never happening.
>reduce Russia’s population to 50 million
With the horrific demographics they have it was going to happen eventually, but now they’re just accelerating it massively with this war.
Lemmie inhale some of that NATO Liberal Hegemony brand copium you got there.
>the official Russian population graph is NATO propaganda
The absolute state of Ziggers.
Based. That's what remain of russians if you kill all churkas.
I don't know how, I don't know why, and I don't know for what purpose, but if Poland joins the war, Warsaw will burn.
Yes brother, I can see the huge bonfire of captured Russian flags and uniforms too.
>Poland sends half a million troops with all their equipment, pulls a Mao in the Korean War and says "no what are you talking about, we're not officially entering the war, these are just proud polish volunteers who have come to help their ethnic brothers"
You may be closer to the truth there than you realise. Russia is going to be taking a lot of payback that is overdue.
On Wednesday, Poland's development minister, Waldemar Buda, said Kaliningrad would now officially be called Królewiec, its name when it was ruled by the Kingdom of Poland in the 15th and 16th centuries.
Honestly, the biggest thing that the Ukies really need to do is find a way to keep the Russian reserves away from the main body of their offensive effort, whether through deception, interdiction, or destruction. If they can do any of those things then they wil be able to really push deep. I don't doubt the Ukies have the capabillity to crack a defensive line, I do doubt if they can crack a defensive line then plow through reserves in prepared fall back lines. The level of force needed to sustain a thrust to punch through reserves is really high bar and I'm not sure they can cross it with just ground forces alone.
But, if they do a multi-stage offensive, maybe throw a couple second tier units at weak objectives that aren't too strategically valuable, then they could probably draw off enough russian troops to where they can find a weakpoint to exploit. Because in all honesty, they don't need to win the war with this counter-offensive, they just need to break the logistical backbone of the russian forces in the south. Once they do that, the job of liberating the south becomes infinitely easier. They could either do a follow up offensive later, or begin a bunch of small attacks that would prey upon weakness created by either taking Melitopol or just cutting its overland rail connections to Russia.
Plus, I bet the second they have any access to the Sea of Azov they're just gonna start sending out 100's of drone narco subs loaded to gills with explosives to take the down the Kerch bridge. Turn Crimea into a seige that really drains russian resources, and make them pay to hold it. But yeah, basically they just have to cut the overland supply routes to the south, that will let them slowly retake it will with less risky attacks.
There was some talk around the Khakiv blitzkrieg that Russian reserves sent to help got ambushed by SOF enroute. Some big shot general even got captured and ukies were kind enough to spread the video. That was the last straw breaking the morale in izium resulting in the rout.
Nothing like that happened in Kherson and that turned out to be a long drawn out fight.
My understanding of it is that the RF's reliance on rail transit for logistics has been their Achilles' Heel this entire conflict. The initial Kerch bridge strike last year was supposedly a major factor in the decision to evacuate Kharkov and withdraw to the barrier presented by the river.
I seem to some talk that if Kerch were taken out, the remaining overland train routes simply aren't sufficient to supply such a long front and they'd have to yield big chunks of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, but I might have misremembered.
ukraine needs to get one of the russian reserve armies sitting the rear to be deployed somewhere else as that is essentially the only thing stopping breakthroughs
get that to happen plus a siege on crimea (dont need to actually enter it just cut off supplies and let the them surrender on their own) and this war will be over before the end of the year
This war is gonna take forever if there's no deal (I don't think there will be), but Ukraine will win ultimately, I think.
The counteroffensive already started, failed and nobody even noticed. It's gonna be a repeat of Russia's winter offensive in reverse. Screencap this.
I'm screencapping this alright. You're going to see your dumbfuckery paraded around for months.
I don’t want doom-post, but it does seem like this offensive is taking too long to launch. Possibly Zelensky or the military leadership is hesitant because they fear an ugly-looking failure which may end careers or even cause Western support to falter. Maybe they feel it’s safer to wait and hope Russia collapses on its own?
Of course it could simply be waiting for ideal conditions or taking extra time because Ukrainian comms and command systems are poor.
It's warmed up significantly but the soil is still a little wet over there, isn't it? Thanks to some unexpectedly rainy weeks a while back.
It was still muddy but is drying up now. They also just retook parts of Bahkmut
South side where they can cuck Crimea.
Out of the way nerds im fucking calling it
Ukraine attacks across rhe whole front from the black sea to bakhmut
Untrained russian conscripts surrendur on mass gulf war style
All of ukraine liberated ny september
Screencap this post
Not happening but it would be kino
Steinerenkos counter attack will be the turning point of the war. Ukraine will finally start to push the russians back. The attack will happen for sure this year the fuhrer vehemently believes that and he believes in endsieg.
It's always astonishing how you vermin managed to memory-hole Kupiansk-Izyum and Kherson in a matter of days.
My prediction: Ukraine makes several probing attacks at various locations along the front line. Achieves some success in the south, bringing the frontine closer to crimea, however Russian defences slow them just enough for reinforcements to be brought in which stall the attack. Stalemate continues, pressure grows from western supporters, such as France, for Ukraine to cede land in exchange for peace.
>leave tactical nuke launchers east bank of Kherson
>oh no, can't allow the Ukes to take nukes
>intermediate yield spam to prevent 'proliferation'
>technically nuking their own territory
>use dirty bombs to make the area impassable and secure Crimea indefinitely
The old ComIntern powers don't have a lot of options for shoring up their nuclear blackmail threat, and scenarios like this (or absolutely plastering Taiwan with SSBNs) are 100% real temptations given their legacy Commie strategic outlook and doctrines on their use.
>a few larger than average skirmishes
>both forces hurdle into each other like hulking giants
>frontline comes to a grinding standstill
>no notable change in territory
I always think this cop looks like the dude from the X-Files.
Also, smoothbrain post. If Kharkiv and Kherson can happen, why not another? They can't even take Bakhmut, what are they supposed to do against an armored push full of NATO equipment (like perfidious ISIS-American optics).
Because Kharkov was due to manpower shortage and Kherson was because of the bridges.
What was Russia's performance like when it played defence? They suffered two notable defeats, and one of them was a near complete defeat, in about a month they lost more than 10,000 km^2 of territory. So there is precedent for Russia kinda underperforming when defending. The Kherson offensive was also widely publicised by Ukraine before it launched, and Russia had months to prepare defences, but it still went wrong for them.
I think it's quite possible that Ukraine will reach the southern coast in about 4-6 months, if we assume they're capable of sustaining the effort for that long. For comparison, Russia's winter offensive lasted for about 5-6 months.
But they also won at Kursk.
>What was the Soviet's performance like when it played defence? They suffered two notable defeats, and one of them was a near complete defeat, in about a month they lost more than 10,000 km^2 of territory. So there is precedent for the Soviet union kinda underperforming when defending. The Kiev encirclement was also widely publicised by Germany before it launched, and The Soviet union had months to prepare defences, but it still went wrong for them.
>I think it's quite possible that Germany will reach the Urals in about 4-6 months, if we assume they're capable of sustaining the effort for that long. For comparison, The Soviet's winter counter-offensive lasted for about 5-6 months.
Now check who's got lend-lease on their side this time
The Soviets wouldn't have been able to win the war on their own and that's a fact they recognized. Beating the germans and Stalingrad was not enough for taking back all their land or go all the way to Berlin. It would have ended in a stalemate at best without Lend Lease, and that's not even talking about how the USSR became industrialized thanks to US tech and help since the 1920s.
Russians have been evacuating the civilians out of the Zaporozhye region, so the Ukrainian attack is probably going to happen there.
It will probably not be very successful.
I admit I know nothing about modern war, I'm mainly interested in ancient wars but I've been interested in the Ukraine war.
But why does Ukraine need to do a counteroffensive? Isn't it easier to just defend now?
>But why does Ukraine need to do a counteroffensive? Isn't it easier to just defend now?
They want to take back their land that has been invaded.
Ukraine is sustained by Western support. That support demands tangible results. They need to pull something spectacular before winter.
What do western countries think will happen if Russia wins the war in Ukraine? That they'll stop there?
Putin started this whole war whining like a little girl it wasn't the Soviet Union anymore
>What do western countries think will happen if Russia wins the war in Ukraine?
All outcomes are calculated, NATO wouldn't help if they didn't know Ukraine wins.
This may not be a popular opinion, but I seriously believe that if the Ukrainians looked like they were running out of steam, the US (and probably some allies, with chances of participation rising as a direct relation to their distance from Russian borders) would step in. They might use the Budapest Memorandum to justify it, or just Gulf-of-Tonkin something up, but the exact casus belli won't matter. Europe and the United States are adamant that they don't want Russia to wind up with anything at all that might be spun as a win -- they want to make an example out of Putin. From the perspective the EU, Ukraine's defense is Too Big To Fail, and if it comes down to it I really do believe they'll nudge the ball onto the fairway.
Right now, of course, the prevailing mood in Ukraine is very much one of defiance. Keeping NATO assistance to training and lend-lease polls well domestically, and it gives the Ukrainians a modern-day War for Liberation to serve as a unifying event. Putin seems to believe that if he can hold onto territory long enough everybody else will knuckle under and recognize the claims, but I don't see it happening -- even if he'd gotten a puppet regime in place to "ratify" it I doubt the West would have said anythign was legitimate.
I keep hearing this meme, but it's bullshit. The west is going to keep supporting Ukraine for as long as Ukraine wants to fight, because Russia is eviscerating itself on Ukraine. Even if the public turned against it the governments won't give a shit.Western governments are more than happy to let Putin fight to the last Russian.
This. It's not like the USA has an election coming up or anything
The next US president won't take office for 621 days. This is day 440 of the war.
And the campaigning for "stop giving Ukraine so much money" is already happening
Can campaign for anything they want, nothing is changing for nearly 2 years.
Yeah man an elected president would never cut needless expenses to pander to the voters
>president cutting budgets
Confirmed clueless about american politics.
The only people who want to cut the support to Ukraine are fringe voters who will never cross party lines. Biden isn't going to piss off his base to pander to retards.
Russia has been grinding itself against bakhmut throughout the fall and winter attriting themselves for virtually zero gains exhausting the forces stationed on the front there.
They already pulled spectacular results. Macron may be more eager to cuck out but in general everyone is set to support Ukraine.
Ukraine currently has the advantage, but they need to wait for Summer for weather conditions to benefit an offensive assault.
Waiting more than that allows Russia to slowly but steadily rearm itself and possibly even obtain more manpower.
Obtaining more manpower can be a good thing. Troop rotations fucked Russia in Kherson.
Literally nothing will happen, this is how this meme war will freeze and both sides will declare victory.
MUH BOTH SIDES
>nooooo tell me that blue team wins or I cry
get the fuck back to r eddit you spastic
They will attack around Bakhmut. Russians are not heavily fortified there and the troops are exhausted. It will especially be advantageous if Wagner is replaced by Kadyrov's Tiktok corps. The Ukrainian goal would be to encircle a large part of the attacking force.
After that, maybe some limited offensive to the South, to relieve Avdiivka, or maybe to retake Sieverodonetsk or maybe to capture Tokmak.
But the main Ukrainian/Western goal isn't to immediately liberate everything down to Crimea with a single grand offensive. They want to force political change or collapse in Russia that would force the army to pull out (Russia has a long history of losing long wars this way). The key is to destroy Russian morale, and winning the much-hyped battle of Bakhmut, cancelling all Russian gains is a good start.
After that, they play the long game. Western allies pledged weapons that won't arrive until after autumn 2023. Meanwhile, they are setting up a Ukrainian military industry, Rheinmetall wants to open ammo factories, Ukraine now has a domestic drone program etc. Russia is losing the war of attrition, and Ukraine needs to make this clear to people inside of Russia.
Betting everything in a big offensive is a big risk for relatively low benefits. They may militarily regain a lot of occupied territories, but it's not sure that it will end the war for good. But if there is a political change in Russia after a prolonged war, Ukraine could gain back territories with less damage, while Russia ceases to be a threat. Also, Ukraine would be on the fast-track to NATO membership, since most of their Soviet equipment will be replaced by then, and they get whoever in charge of Russia to sign a treaty.
I'm thinking it's going to be a counteroffensive against Bakhmut with a possible push to Luhansk city if the Ukies don't run out of steam. That'll expose the Russian flanks in northern Luhansk and Donetsk. A push south to Mariupol would be kino, but I don't really know the state of the defenses on the Avdiivka-Vuhledar axis.
A counteroffensive towards Tokmak-Melitopol seems unlikely. The Russians have built some large-scale layered defenses that would be tough to penetrate. Counterattacking there would be suicide. An successful offensive against Svatove also seems unlikely to me as the supplies crossing the Oskil river would be a prime target for artillery.
It's possible. But it's also entirely possible that the Bakhmut counter-attack is entirely unrelated and just good timing. Wagnar is collapsing so Azov is taking advantage of that to see how far they can push Russia back.
They're going straight for Moscow, retards
Hear me out
Ukrainian VDV drop red alert 2 style 20 000 strong right into the heart of donetsk
At the same time ukraine does sparta and sends 100% of their drones missiles etc to kremlin.
They may lose the war but the world will remember how they ade the mighty bleed
Now there's two cats?
no, there are five
Ukraine retreats on all fronts and lets russia take large areas.
Then counterattack the russians who are now without fortifications.
Why fight their stringholds when you can bait them out
Ukraine surrenders and gifts huge wooden pig to moscow
Once in the city pig opens and drones pour out and attack everything
As others have stated, there are two main goals with corresponding attack vectors. Either hit the soft northern flank in Luhansk to strike towards the heart of Russian operations in Ukraine, or push south to cut off the occupied portions of the Kherson oblast and Crimea. Either way I expect a decisive, buy limited victory. Probably nothing as big and quick as the liberation of the Kharkiv oblast, but nevertheless highly significant for the war at large
>ITT: midwit takes and near zero understanding of the realities of wars.
True. at least back then the feds rarely posted and just lurked.
They punch south to around Mykhailivka and then clear shit out by flanking the defenders so their main forces can fill in behind and start pushing towards Enerhodar by repeating the technique. A portion of the force also breaks east but only to clear out space for new lines to soften up the Russian lines and not focus on taking anything.
Simultaneous strikes on Kreminna and Svatove designed to break the next line of supply hubs for the NE with a smaller push up towards Valuyki to the border. Once the road's taken, everything collapses down downwards Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk with the end goal of getting to Popasna before heading west and retaking Bakhmut from the rear.
I don't even think they have a plan, that's why they keep postponing it