Belarussian army is not much better than Donbabwe, them pretending an invasion is on the table is more useful to Russian war effort than them actually launching said invasion
Most of the population hates Lukashenko so he's scared to do anything. If he actually armed his citizens and told them to attack Ukraine, they'd attack his dacha instead. So I guess it would make a difference, but not the way russians want
actually yeah i could see it:
give your "enemies" intel of your "ally"(overlord) so they kick his ass, and then switch to the winning side at the almost last moment so you can keep power as a "necessary evil".
the only hole i see in this is that the europeans will never accept lukashenko, unless he steps down postwar and keeps his millions.
He is a really smart dude apparently who played his position very well. Belarus makes an ungodly amount of money acting as an intermediary between Russia and Europe for various goods
No, way too small. Belarus only has like 30k active troops and loyalty is questionable.
If Russia wasn't moronic, it would have spent the last 30 years bringing Kazakhstan and Armenia closer into its sphere so it could have some allies to help it.
It's all an act, Lukashenko is unironically a very smart guy
Lukashenko is wisely staying way the frick out of the entire charade. Who knows, he could even take advantage of the inevitable clusterfrick to make Europe like him a little more.
>Could Belarus's army make a difference in Ukraine?
Not anymore. First week of March would have sealed Kyiv's fate, if Belarus had been about half as moronic as Russia, or less. Now, it's ogre.
Its gonna be pretty huge, when the soldiers and cops realize they are ordered to go to frontline, freeze, eat uncooked potatoes and die in horrible way so Luka can score brownie points with Moscow.
Right now it's there, but miniscule, largely in part due to belaks making the same mistake as "liberal" russians and avoiding violent Maidan-esque protests like the plague.
If Belarus decided to attack Ukraine tho, the situation could change very much.
>Could Belarus's army make a difference in Ukraine
it possibly could have made a difference had they gone in at the start. with the front stretching from mykoliav oblast all the way around to volyn oblast then it's possible that this would stretch ukraine's tdf to the breaking point.
ASSUMING they dont immediately revolt and coup lukashenko then its still a hard no, they would not achieve any success trying to attack since the have virtually no force project given how small and how limited their weaponry+training is
No, his army would desert, or die drinking water from puddles on their way through chernobyl. Russia will need a special operation for Belarus in the next couple years too.
>Could Belarus's army make a difference in Ukraine?
Its military would mutiny and hang their dictator if it was ordered to Ukraine. They are in a difficult situation they don't want to be killed by Russians or Poles or Ukrainians or NATO. They have their shitty Russian puppet dictator and its embarrassing but they are alive. If they hang on he can be deposed when Ukraine wins once putin is gone without their country being smashed up
The could make a difference by getting Lukashenko hanged by the populace the second the army fricks off over the border.
Belarussian army is not much better than Donbabwe, them pretending an invasion is on the table is more useful to Russian war effort than them actually launching said invasion
Most of the population hates Lukashenko so he's scared to do anything. If he actually armed his citizens and told them to attack Ukraine, they'd attack his dacha instead. So I guess it would make a difference, but not the way russians want
Potato man is not moronic enough to try
IDK dawlg he seems pretty moronic to me
Wonder how that map looks now, if his general staff keep it up to date
i’m pretty sure this was entirely intentional
actually yeah i could see it:
give your "enemies" intel of your "ally"(overlord) so they kick his ass, and then switch to the winning side at the almost last moment so you can keep power as a "necessary evil".
the only hole i see in this is that the europeans will never accept lukashenko, unless he steps down postwar and keeps his millions.
His silly uncle batka the potato farmer persona is almost certainly an act
He is a really smart dude apparently who played his position very well. Belarus makes an ungodly amount of money acting as an intermediary between Russia and Europe for various goods
Why is 1st Air Cav on that map?
No, way too small. Belarus only has like 30k active troops and loyalty is questionable.
If Russia wasn't moronic, it would have spent the last 30 years bringing Kazakhstan and Armenia closer into its sphere so it could have some allies to help it.
It's all an act, Lukashenko is unironically a very smart guy
not joining the shit show directly was one of his smartest moves so far
No, the potato-inflation in Belaruss would break the local economy
Putin already demilitarized Belarus army and took away their ammo stocks and MREs
Lukashenko is wisely staying way the frick out of the entire charade. Who knows, he could even take advantage of the inevitable clusterfrick to make Europe like him a little more.
Or at least not being dragged in front of a tribunal in DenHaag when this conflict is over.
>he could even take advantage of the inevitable clusterfrick to make Europe like him a little more.
No.
No, they aren't Russia so the west will just steamroll them
>Could Belarus's army make a difference in Ukraine?
Not anymore. First week of March would have sealed Kyiv's fate, if Belarus had been about half as moronic as Russia, or less. Now, it's ogre.
Desu, Belarusian leader leaked the invasion plans live on tv
They would be even more moronic
Lukashenko knows if he sends even 10% of the Belarusian army into Ukraine he is going to be lynched in the streets by rebels
how big is the insurgency in Belarus?
Its gonna be pretty huge, when the soldiers and cops realize they are ordered to go to frontline, freeze, eat uncooked potatoes and die in horrible way so Luka can score brownie points with Moscow.
Right now it's there, but miniscule, largely in part due to belaks making the same mistake as "liberal" russians and avoiding violent Maidan-esque protests like the plague.
If Belarus decided to attack Ukraine tho, the situation could change very much.
>Could Belarus's army make a difference in Ukraine
it possibly could have made a difference had they gone in at the start. with the front stretching from mykoliav oblast all the way around to volyn oblast then it's possible that this would stretch ukraine's tdf to the breaking point.
I'm not even gonna bother reading.
No, it wouldn't. Furthermore, Belarusian soldiers doesn't want to get involved in Ukraine.
Belarus isn’t aloud a real army because that would violate its status as a vassal state
ASSUMING they dont immediately revolt and coup lukashenko then its still a hard no, they would not achieve any success trying to attack since the have virtually no force project given how small and how limited their weaponry+training is
in first days of invasion yes. Now it would just end up with belarus collapsing.
What would happen if Ukraine fired a bunch of HIMARS at Belarus targeting military bases and ammo depots? How would they respond?
Yes, it could further weaken the Russian army if it was deployed.
No, his army would desert, or die drinking water from puddles on their way through chernobyl. Russia will need a special operation for Belarus in the next couple years too.
>Could Belarus's army make a difference in Ukraine?
Its military would mutiny and hang their dictator if it was ordered to Ukraine. They are in a difficult situation they don't want to be killed by Russians or Poles or Ukrainians or NATO. They have their shitty Russian puppet dictator and its embarrassing but they are alive. If they hang on he can be deposed when Ukraine wins once putin is gone without their country being smashed up
Colonel Potato is busy thinking how he can take over the Kremlin in this mess.