can those numbers really be realistic?
870 missiles would be the equivalent of 6 SSGNs
in other words: just the 4 active ohio SSGNs have almost as much stock as the entirety of the russian armed forces
it would also mean russias navy is sailing mostly unarmed in terms of long range weaponry
It's bullshit but I believe it. They spammed Kalibrs on fucking power stations last year, banking on Ukraine completely surrendering due to that. It was evident that it didn't work after the first day but Russians don't understand sunk cost fallacy so they kept doubling and tripling down.
>chequed
Those damn Ukrainians! Using their defenseless cities as bait to intercept vatnagger missiles! Will they stop at nothing??!
Nice digits anon
Quads of truth, Russia has wasted a heap of missiles on civilian targets because they never bothered reading all the post WW2 reports on how ineffectual terror bombing is.
check and accurate, unlike russian missiles.
Blessed digits.
I was surprised how ineffectual terror bombing was, my laptop's battery lasted longer than blackouts.
I thought they were running even lower on Kalibre but presumably they can make more and have been.
They were mostly using air launched Kh-## for some months after that spam against apartments and power stations like a year ago.
That's not a huge arsenal but it can still do a lot of damage. Ukrainians just got hit at a base or something a few days ago and they think someone leaked the position.
i think they are making quite a few now, all those budget increases have to go somewhere. of course they need to pay 3x due to all the smuggling for microchips, but still - the cost of those components is comparatively low when you look at the military budget russia has available now
>That's not a huge arsenal but it can still do a lot of damage
what i was wondering is whether stock is considered "free stock to throw at ukraine" or overall stock, e.g. including navy and airforce stocks they keep in reserve for an engagement with NATO
>engagement with NATO
Yeah.
No idea about specific numbers, but pre-war Russians have built their stocks slowly, and now have expended them very fast. They suffer from the same issues with ramping up production as the west. Indications of low missile stocks have been there ever since Iskander/Kinzal strikes lessened and some obsolete missiles started being used.
I bet the initial shortages were with the stocks allocated to the SMO running out, followed by stocks of the military district running out, to where even stocks of northern and far eastern military districts have been transported over and used up
Just being at war probably eats most of the budget, consumption of everything from ammo and fuel to spare parts and medical supplies must have skyrocketed compared to the peacetime military
>what i was wondering is whether stock is considered "free stock to throw at ukraine" or overall stock
I think Russia will blow almost everything they have at Ukraine. They'll rely on their nukes to prevent an invasion from China or US and just a couple of ballistic and cruise missiles to threaten Kazahkstan and such with.
IIRC, they went down to under 100 Kalibre at some point last year but it looks like they're producing 15-30 per month now.
Which is not a lot.
We *should* be giving Ukraine 100 ATACMs per month but we're not. And Russia should be producing that many Kalibre per month and they're not. Instead Russia is looking to Iran to supply ballistic missiles.
>We *should* be giving Ukraine 100 ATACMs per month
I really don't understand what is holding up the west from just throwing the kitchen sink at Ukraine, every red line has been crossed and nothing happened.
There is a legitimate worry of China invading Taiwan very soon and it's an awkward period where ATACMS hasn't been replaced with PrSM yet.
That said, I still think we should be sending all our ATACMS to Ukraine anyway.
showing China what happens to landgrabbers is the best defence.
it's called "strengthening deterrence" aka
>fuck around, find out
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Foreign-investment-in-China-turns-negative-for-first-time
Chang's probably going to do it out of desperation
It's not just about ATACMS.
Why aren't they getting 300 Bradleys?
Why aren't Abrams being mass refurbished and sent to Ukraine?
FFS if this was the cold war the ukies would have had tomcats and top of the line tanks coming out of their ass
And the Germans are STILL pussyfooting around, fucking fags
The issue for Tanks is that the Lima plant has a capacity for something like 200 vehicles a year and a backlog of 1000 orders.
US currently only runs one tank plant. They have yet to scale it beyond that. I think they are hiring though so if you need a job anon...
Ukraine don't have neither the people, supply train and technical capacity to handle and maintain that many vehicles effectively. And they are not going to be of any help against 4 km deep minefields anyway.
It's like the f16, their role will be missile haulers to substitute the aging su24 left, don't expect the slog to turn into donetsk storm as soon as they start to flight them in combat.
The best call now is to keep digging through the minefields methodically, pushing forward, and when the time comes punch through the holes and let the understaffed, undersupplied Russians in the trenches rout.
>It's like the f16, their role will be missile haulers to substitute the aging su24 left, don't expect the slog to turn into donetsk storm as soon as they start to flight them in combat.
Yup. It annoys me when people don't get that
Like a few F-16s will suddenly mean Ukraine can go full SEAD and walk over Russia. The main reason to get them is so you can actually program western missiles instead of naggerrigging them
Correct.
The way the Ukies are going about SEAD using HARMs isn't being exploited to their full potential due to the ordnance/circuit lash up. Those pilots training for F-16s will also be getting a grounding in WW tactics for sure.
>Ukraine don't have neither
This.
F16s are meant to keep Ukraine flying since their current Soviet airframes and engines are past their service life.
I do think they’ll be able to, at least, better defend against shitty Mig-31s launching R-37M missiles.
>the Germans are STILL pussyfooting around
If the Europeans aren't taking the Ukraine invasion seriously then why should the US, which is even less threatened by Russia?
Sounds like you should hurry up and volunteer
It's the monsoon season over there now. A Chinese invasion now would be pretty chancy.
>There is a legitimate worry of China invading Taiwan
>legitimate
its not. Its just boomers being spineless cowards like usual because a couple israelites und mudshits died somewhere in the desert and now they are afraid if the asian boogeyman.
TZD is the final and only solution to americas problems. Yes no black lifes matter riots, no alt right terror shootings. A society united by the genocide of the russian subhumans
Russia still can blow up ZNPP and use WMDs, so there is still a bit of a runway. They most likely won't but whatever.
>What is holding
The west cares about Ukraine existing, and unless something goes extremely wrong, it will exist. Territorial integrity - whatever, let those retards duke it out and we'll deal with it later, or maybe I won't be in power by then, so it won't be my problem anyway - some western politician, probably.
Ukraine is taking a lot of casualties and will lose the war of attrition without better technology and lots of ammunition.
Russia has lots more cheap lives to throw away and even if 2 or 3 Russians die for every Ukrainian they still lose the war of attrition that way. Ukraine needs to kill 5:1 or better.
>Why aren't Abrams being mass refurbished and sent to Ukraine?
I don't think they'd have the manpower for them. Someone high up in Ukraine basically said the same thing already.
They need artillery rounds and ballistic/cruise missiles more than anything. They need F-16s and lots of ordinance for them.
300 Bradleys and 100 Abrams won't change the situation that they can't really advance into mines. They need to hit Russia's ammunition storage, barracks, training grounds, power stations, and even more importantly hit their weapon manufacturing centers.
Look at Nortern Avdiivka where Ukraine lost like 6 Bradleys, 1 Leopard, and like 10-20 guys in order to destroy 100+ Russian vehicles and 500+ Russians.
That's fine when they're on defense but they simply don't have the tools to mount a good offense and more Bradleys and Abrams won't do it.
Russia's deadliest weapons are artillery, ballistic missiles, and mines. 80%+ of Ukraine casualties are to artillery. More tanks and Bradleys just don't help much against them on the offense.
>Ukraine is taking a lot of casualties and will lose the war of attrition
War of attrition is not Ukie side since NATO and its allies baking it.
>Russia has lots more cheap lives to throw away and even if 2 or 3 Russians die for every Ukrainian they still lose the war of attrition that way. Ukraine needs to kill 5:1 or better.
Yeah, this is why russian will never beat our production and quality levels of military tech which Ukraine has.
>I don't think they'd have the manpower for them.
Ukraine has enough manpower to man all existing Abrams tanks. Fuck off ivan.
>is not
is on*
>have the manpower for them
This is turbocope. If Ukraine had thousands of tanks they would find people to train and they could afford losing a dozen of them is one massive attack. Or the entire population of Ukraine is 120 people because the US sent 30 Abrams.
If they pull off 5,000 people to train on all those vehicles, they'll lose a lot of ground.
They need new recruits to send to the front while they rotate people out for training and they don't have them. The recruiting/drafting numbers have been way down since they fired the previous corrupt heads of recruiting.
Corruption is still a big issue in Ukraine. There's only a few Battalions that are really being trusted with the good kit. Those battalions are performing ridiculously well but you can't magically copy paste them by giving the supplies to less reliable and less experienced personnel.
I thought this originally, but I'm not so sure.
Russia has ramped up their defense production better than expected. Not to a great level, but more than expected. They're producing enough to keep up with the west not supplying enough aid.
They could also lose all their T-90M and the war but in a year they'll probably have another 200 of them to oppress their neighbors with.
One of the biggest things Ukraine is lacking is a way to hit factories making tanks and artillery.
There's a lot of sources in the article.
Ukraine was well known to have bad corruption from the start from many sources. Not as bad as Russia and Iran, but still really bad.
>bad corruption
that’s true, them not having enough manpower is fantasy however, for both sides.
>war of attrition
If Russia depletes its conventional forces to that extent, they'll be extremely vulnerable to glow ops. They could still shut down a CIA backed revolts in their vassal countries now, but after sustaining current loss rates for another year or two?
Probably not. Expect the west to grab a whole lot of them if Putin is dumb enough to fall for this.
Putin has been desperate to hide the financial and human cost of the war and to not risk the political blowback that would come from another overt round of mobilization. The Russian military is dipping deeper and deeper into its stockpile of Cold War equipment (using MT-LBs as APCs, etc.) and are reduced to buying shells from North Korea. The idea that Russia can engage in a large-scale war of attrition is silly. They simply don't have the political will to do so or the material capacity needed to support it. Raw manpower is not the limiting factor for the Russian war effort.
As of Jan 1st 2023, Russia had 443,000 people in prison.
They also have people they're kidnapping from Donbas and forcing to fight.
They are currently, actually, winning that war of attrition. Just barely, but just barely is all they need while Ukraine needs to BTFO them.
>No way they built 600 cruise missiles in the span of 2 years.
You're so very wrong.
Russian weapons are a lot shittier and they're cheaper to make. 300 made in a year is actually a pretty pathetic number but it's still better than what we're supplying Ukraine with so Russia is hanging in there.
>Russia is no producing 80+ kalibrs a month. There is no shortage.
They aren't. They rely on foreign components and sanctions has reduced that number to 15-30 per month.
It's worth it to kill Russians. The DoD is being dumb.
By very soon, I meant it could happen any year now. Probably not this year because China needs more landing craft I think, but it could be 2025 and PRsM will be barely ready by then *maybe*.
>sanctions has reduced that number to 15-30 per month
my sweet summer child, they were producing TEN Kalibrs a month in the run up to the war
>As of Jan 1st 2023, Russia had 443,000 people in prison.
And we know that's down to 266k right now.
>https://archive[DOT]ph/CAIeD
>The Russian prison population, estimated at roughly 420,000 before the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, plummeted to a historic low of about 266,000, according to Deputy Justice Minister Vsevolod Vukolov, who disclosed the figure during a panel discussion earlier this month.
If Russians were west of the Dniper right now you may be able to convince me they've spent their prisoners well and could still win this war, but this is not the case anon.
Yes but another 100,000 convicts and another 100,000 people abducted from Donbas is probably more than Ukraine can raise up right now.
>If Russians were west of the Dniper right now you may be able to convince me they've spent their prisoners well and could still win this war, but this is not the case anon.
Neither side is advancing though. As long as Russia holds most of the territory they had 6 months ago, they're winning essentially.
If it stays like this without Ukraine getting much better artillery and PGMs, what do you think happens? Russia isn't going to just leave and give Ukraine a chance to demine.
You're right that's incorrect. They never had a huge stockpile and production rate of Kalibres that I can find.
It's currently a mix of sources saying anywhere from 15 to 30 produced per month. They are clearly producing some because they had expended them to under 100 at the end of last year and yet they keep launching a good deal each month.
>a mix of sources saying anywhere from 15 to 30 produced per month
yeah, I don't believe them at all
30 land attack missiles altogether? sure
Kalibr alone?
no way in hell
>They are clearly producing some because they had expended them to under 100 at the end of last year
I've never trusted that figure, wherever it came from
>they keep launching a good deal each month
they have been launching a small number actually
the biggest missile attacks were at the start of the war and last winter, on a couple of days nearly 100 missiles were launched. but they were a mix of Kalibr, Iskander and Tochka
over time, more and more older missile types have been launched, especially Soviet ones. Oniks, Harpoonskis, Kitchens, S-300s, etc. and of course Shaheeds.
>Yes but another 100,000 convicts and another 100,000 people abducted from Donbas is probably more than Ukraine can raise up right now.
Bombass stopped providing men in meaningful numbers over a year ago, which is why all LND/DNR regiments are Russian mobniks.
Prisoners are a resource for which the rate of consumption clearly outpaces the rate of replenishment.
By definition anon, that means they are losing via attrition.
>Neither side is advancing though. As long as Russia holds most of the territory they had 6 months ago, they're winning essentially.
Do you know this guy called Sergey Surovikin? Ever heard of him? Called "General Armageddon" at times? Picture from Wikipedia attached, if you're unfamiliar. Yeah, this guy. He's smarter than you. A lot smarter. I can tell this as you're profoundly retarded going by that comment you just made.
You see, Surovikin knew that the only way to "win" the war was to make Ukraine's .gov capitulate completely. Plan A was a blitzkrieg to Kyiv and to either cause the central government to flee/collapse/genuflect/whatever and take power from there.
Well that didn't fucking happen. Surovikin came in and correctly surmised that was never going to fucking happen either. Plan A failed.
Unlike you though Surovikin was aware the status quo would lead to a decisive Russian defeat eventually so a Plan B was devised: "Let us freeze them during winter! Bring Kyiv low! Force them to flee!". Despite what some say that did actually almost work. Seriously. There are reports showing the Ukrainian .gov was on the knife's edge from ordering a general evacuation of Kyiv. Millions gone! But, no dice.
So, Plan B failed too.
>Prisoners are a resource for which the rate of consumption clearly outpaces the rate of replenishment.
>By definition anon, that means they are losing via attrition.
the only have to run out of meat before the ukrainians do.
And if we dont start to send more mobik cubemakers very soon, thats a win for the russians
>Prisoners are a resource for which the rate of consumption clearly outpaces the rate of replenishment.
>By definition anon, that means they are losing via attrition.
I'd agree with you if Ukraine didn't have their own shortage. It's not just the times reporting it. The US government itself has for a year. https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-united-states-1710f0ac18a3f08a47dd6652214e5394
This was when Ukraine responded by firing the corrupt recruiters and it only got worse since then.
There is no clear winner at the moment. Ukraine needs more ATACMS.
>Ukraine needs more ATACMS.
Sucks to be them then, because the US seems to US think it has better things to do with them than throw them away in what increasingly looks like a lost cause.
Perhaps you should ask your supervisor if you can get an english course. it would increase your advocacy when shilling.
Blyad i explained 3 times, rutracker link to rosetta stone is in FAQ.
>looks like a lost cause
this would look like the case if russia could take anything at all, but they can't
Onto Plan C for poor Surovikin. Create a defensive line so grand Ukraine is forced to surrender any idea of ever retaking their territory! Do you immediately see the problem? You should. Ukraine hasn't/didn't/won't give up, and committed to the long-term pursuit of retaking land despite their fortifications. See Zaluzhny's recent interview for details. The fortifications are still there, obviously, don't get me wrong, but that's not the point of it. That's not a path to "victory". Surovikin knew that.
"Victory" isn't delaying Ukraine's advances. It is making them surrender wholly and give up on the very notion they may ever advance again. Plan C has failed.
>btw you're free to delude yourself into believing the fortifications "win" because there have more (and more meaningful) Ukrainian men and material lost than the Russian side, Russia is coming out ahead on attrition here, and Russian can do this forever regardless, but I assume you're aware of this all being fiction
Surovikin is out now, and we're on to Plan D.
What is Plan D? Hope foreign aid runs out. Breaking the will of Ukraine via Plans A, B, and C has proven to be a dead-end, so hit up their backers.
And this is where we currently are.
But you know, given that whole "Russia totally doesn't have their fingers in the Hamas attack on Israel" bit, I have a strong feeling the number for foreign backers Ukraine is going to have isn't about to decline, year-over-year.
Just a thought.
it's interesting because online shilling for russia perfectly reflected each of these plans so far.
notice how for the last two weeks we've been getting an inordinately large focus from vatnagger shills on foreign aid.
tabloid-tier article after tabloid-tier article, desperately trying to convince anyone and anything that aid will somehow magically stop.
it's been quite satisfying seeing the slow demoralization through russian shilling efforts.
>A: stupid westoids kiev will fall in 3 da...in two wee... in 3 mont...nevermind
>B: enjoy freezing europeans, ukraine will also freeze we cut off power with our iranian lawnmower drones xaxaxaxa...pls gib up already
>XAXAXA IMPENETRABLE SUROVIKIN LINE, UKROPS CANT KILL ALL OF US, better surrender no...oh you're going to keep attacking? fuck...
>allies are going to cut off aid and stop bullying russia with their soft power any day now
if you were to somehow get through the mental barrier of a vatnik and get them to truly realize the mental journey they've been on the last year and a half, they would unironically put a bullet in their mouth post haste, you simply cannot be coping this hard and be aware of it without wanting to have a nice day.
>What is Plan D?
picrel
>I don't think they'd have the manpower for them
It's completely the opposite actually. Even their existing units are often not even half equipped and so they can't really create new ones without weapons. What west has pledged so far is laughably low for the scale of the war and even that isn't fully delivered yet. War tempo changed at least twice since abrams were first promised and arrived only now.
>Ukraine is taking a lot of casualties and will lose the war of attrition without better technology and lots of ammunition
Russia is literally eating itself inside out for at least a year now to keep up with the pace
>300 Bradleys and 100 Abrams won't change the situation that they can't really advance into mines. They need to hit Russia's ammunition storage, barracks, training grounds, power stations, and even more importantly hit their weapon manufacturing centers
That's REALLY not how it works.
>I really don't understand
Could have stopped there. Russia isn't the only threat to the US in the world, and their Ukrainian misadventure has shown that they're not enough of a threat to be worth throwing the good shit at. That isn't necessarily the same for the other European countries who are closer to Russia, so maybe they can step up their support for Ukraine?
>so maybe they can step up their support for Ukraine?
No sorry we gotta save our equipment to backstab the US and switch sides when China attacks
The west doesn't actually want Ukraine to win, they just want Russia to bleed.
>We *should* be giving Ukraine 100 ATACMs per month but we're not.
doesn't exist to give, officially. M39 and M39A1 are end of life, with the only current production being retrofit/upgrade to M57 (which the US doesn't want to give to ukraine). this was fine when the plan was to switch over all production to prsm but now it's an impediment to steady resupply.
additional production was optioned for FY 2023 (= calendar year starting 2022-10). but the DOD comptroller never documented new production stemming from this.
That's 17 months of ATACMS at 100 per month. Your own source contradicts you.
There's nothing preventing it from happening except that PRsM won't be ready to start filling the gap for more than a year. But I really don't think it's required for the army to have them given our Air Force and Navy capabilities.
100 ATACMS a month is Ukraine's best shot at ending the war and it's worth draining stockpiles for.
the point was that authorization for additional production has not yet been followed by additional production. the missiles you want to send don't yet exist.
I know I already said this myself.
I said fuck it let the hole in procurement exist and not have any replacement. We have alternative weapons to use even if we don't have an exact ATACMS replacement.
I think it's very arbitrary how we're not letting Ukraine have enough good weapons because we *might* need them.
A war with China is going to be mostly Naval and airforce, and we won't really need those ATACMS.
>I know I already said this myself.
>I said fuck it let the hole in procurement exist and not have any replacement.
maybe you thought this, but you didn't say it prior to my note about where things appear to stand in actuality vs. the aspirational goals of ukraine backers.
grabbing the actual figures for you and taking the time to explain that the money for new production has been earmarked but the new missile production doesn't actually show up on lockmart or US govt books yet, only to be told that my own source contradicts me, is irritating.
yes - i think it's mental that a series of missteps in procurement, plus peace dividend + "reset" delusions, plus INF policy-fucking of tactical programs, resulted in a situation where the DOD only ever ordered under 5k of the max-range PGM for missile trucks, with over half of the produce going to foreign military sales.
yes - i think what's actually happening with military aid to ukraine is not particularly aligned with what should be happening.
but the war doesn't wait for my huffy complaints.
>but the war doesn't wait for my huffy complaints.
I mean it should. It's *our* military. I'll call my representatives and telling them they need to tell the DoD to get bent and that long range ground launched PGMs aren't as important to keep in inventory as its important to send to Ukraine. We have plenty of other weapons to fill the gap until PRsM and can afford to give Ukraine ATACMS and have a few years gap until PRsM arrives.
Yes?
So they ramped up production. But couldn't get it ramped up to the previous 60+ per month because of sanctions.
What's so complicated here?
>they ramped up production
says who?
>the previous 60+ per month
when did they EVER achieve sixty a month?
BEFORE SANCTIONS, BEFORE THE WAR, they were hitting TEN a month
kid, how old are you? can you count?
i personally triangulate more targeting data than ukraine's armed forces could ever hope to use, collectively. the systems responsible for this are humming away 24/7. i'd never say no to being in the black with missile stocks, but the dynamics of the war are far too complicated to be reduced to supply matters like the delivery of ±100 PGMs per month.
also,
>whining to politicians about how shit they and their appointees are
waste of energy, most of the time. war seeks not the blessing of beltway fags, nor i.
the latest GUR figures for the press are the ones listed here
. budanov's deputy has been the one to provide the estimates to ukraine's wire services throughout the war, for consistency.
>it's worth it
I bet it's worth it to the Ukrainians who are getting them for free. But it seems the US DoD doesn't agree that it's worth it to the US.
>*should* be giving Ukraine 100 ATACMs per month
I'd be happy with a generous 100 per week. Always round up and maybe 500 a month. It could be a several -month build-up and scale it back. I'm not worried about Ukraine having a stash of war surplus in their armory after TZD. Still need to hunt down and exterminate ziggers that have scattered to other places in the world.
I was under the impression that the US doesn't even have 1000 of these missiles and they can't produce more.
picrel: where FY 2024 budget requests (draft) currently stand. values are in 1k USD.
They don't have enough of anything to resist an attack by NATO or China and their only deterrent to such a thing is their ICBM arsenal which is useless in this conflict anyway. I guarantee you the Russians will expend their entire non-nuclear arsenal by the end of this war.
they think they're at war with nato already, and just don't appreciate that it's half of NATO's left foot being swung by someone else
I haven't heard about many massive missile barrages lately, maybe they're saving up to do their
>ukraine will freeze xaxaxaxa*~~*~~
schtick again
>ukraine will freeze xaxaxaxa
oh fuck it's gonna be another disastrously hot winter, isn't it
Climate Change is a Globohomo conspiracy to deprive Russia of it's only reliable tactic.
I'm fairly certain of this is the case given the reduction in missiling of civilian targets from their usual rate. They're still trickling missile production, so it isn't like their rate of production is zero but they really want to pull a saturation strike after Patriot took down a bunch of Kinzhals in their all out attempts after the fitrst wave. Humiliation is something that Russians seethe about yet allow to happen to them throughout history.
They do their best to memory hole it, which just makes it happen over and over again.
>NPC
because you are
if you're in this board and don't care about home invaders, you're in the wrong board.
shoo, neoootroller.
so, my death change nothing?
Well your life didn't either
Don't have a nice day.
Please have a nice day
you sound like you need a hobby
i have something.
But man. After this Israel situation i get it. I can't feel sadness for another people, no matter who is it, Like, yea, they died, but why we should afraid dead? It can be associated with my suicidal tendency?
Why does it have Tomahawks arranged in 22 groups of 7 each when it's only got 4 topr tubes?
because torpedoing shit is not it's mission.
It's mission is to remain undetected until the order is unleash a nuclear holocaust.
>thirdie is still desperately posting his new articles written by useful idiots in a desperate bid to stop the mockery.
Embarrassing.
jesus fucking christ how many times will you make this thread? They were supposed to run out in 2022 already if it didn't happen it means THEY HAVE RELIABLE MEANS TO MAKE MORE OF THEM YOU DUMB PIECE OF SHIT
YOUR HECKING UKRAINE IS FUCKED ITS OVER
>can those numbers really be realistic?
Yes, I believe it
NATO European countries reportedly maintain a stockpile of about 600-1,100 cruise missile type weapons. Russia had a similar defence budget. At minimum they should have had that many weapons to start with. The build time of a new cruise missile is about 1-2 years. By now they ought to have replenished some or all of their prewar stock. Since expenditure has probably been much higher than production, it makes sense that they'd currently have fewer than a thousand missiles.
>only Russia can make missiles
>nobody else can
have a nice day
Russia is fucked
F-16 is likely to be used for air defence, SEAD and long-range strike; the key advantages over the current lashup is that it can launch AMRAAMs, properly-integrated HARMs and SLAM-ER Harpoons
>USA lies about their missiles
>that means Russia is out of missiles
2 more weeks
>Simon Shuster
Let's see his previous articles. I wonder if they have pro-russian narratives.
https://time.com/5926750/azov-far-right-movement-facebook/
Damn, they do, really unexpected.
Is that pro Russia? No MSM site has ever pretended Azov aren't neo-nazis, they just go "yeah but they're fighting Russia so we're fine with that for a bit"
>White-Supremacist Militia
>a fuckton of tatars, israelites and other non-whites
What makes them neo-nazis in the first place? Have they burned israelites and gypsies or they just have cool tatoos and kill russians?
I think some former members of Azov were linked to some small-scale violence against Romani a few years before the war, but hey, that's Europe for you.
If there’s any ethnic group that deserves small-scale violence it’s gypsies.
More than muzzies or israelites.
In Europe Nazi is a slur for nationalists.
literally this entire thread is vatcope lmao
it's afraid
I agree, Claiming the second biggest producer of arms and armor and the most prolific one in the world cant invade a neighbor in 3 days is just plain retarded conjecture
Ukraine war has been going on for 2 years and theres less photos of civvies getting murdered than in 1 week in the israeli conflict. Maybe the russians aren't comic book marvel villians? Just like we sat in a desert against a stone age civilization for over a decade and accomplished fuckall?
War isn't like in video games you moron, you can just use the full might of your military against civilians unless you plan on genociding them and fighting the entire world at the same time afterwards.
lmao you really did just gloves coming off post huh
And the biggest one just spend how long fighting against goatfuckers and lost?
You bring up an amazing question, how was Russia EVER gonna hold onto Ukraine if they did magically manage to get to Kyiv and topple the evil israeli nazi regime?
>going down that rabbithole again
You’re going to backpeddle and admit that’s a lie as soon as people start pressing you on it, why even bother with this same old goatherder copypasta, you get BTFO every time you bring it up.
Do you ever think about death from the rocket?
What the fuck I should do if i wanna be blown?
Why innocent people die while I sit here alive
>What the fuck I should do if i wanna be blown?
try not being in a warzone as non combatant? That's been working out pretty good for me.
Nah
I wanna be dead by blow
And im non combatant
care to explain why?
Life is hard
Im retard
World is full of suffer
And things don't give me an enjoy and happiness
Nothing works to heal it. Just wanna die in battle and get $$$
Try playing vidya or something you sad cunt
You are sad cunt
I played. And?
Fuck it. It will be better if I died years ago
>What the fuck I should do if i wanna be blown?
Hire a hooker.
It's not that much but not that few either. You should remember that last winter they were occasionally shooting 100's of missiles daily and by the spring run out into stockpile of lower dozens before they stopped, so like ~80% of what they have is what they produced in the last half a year.
That's not enough to repeat what they did last time, but more than enough to hit actual critical targets, and for the spam they instead scaled up their shithead production tenfold.
>like ~80% of what they have is what they produced in the last half a year.
Not possible
For FY2023 the United States bought 581 JASSMs, 88 LRASMs, 120 PRSMs, and 53 Tomahawks. In total, about 850 cruise missile type weapons. The US defence budget and GDP both are more than 10 times that of Russia's. It's not possible that Russia could produce that many weapons - they just wouldn't have the production capacity for it.
And even if Russia did switch to essentially a wartime economy, it's not possible for them to expand their production capacity quickly enough to achieve a tenfold increase within a year, or even two.
No way they built 600 cruise missiles in the span of 2 years.
What if the missiles are easier to build cause they're shit?
Possible, but unlikely in my opinion, given that Russian antiship / cruise missiles are not priced significantly cheaper than Western equivalents in foreign sales. They were willing to pay ~333,000 for a Shaheed drone in lieu of more expensive weapons; that that means their regular kind must cost them significantly more, no?
>They were throwing hundreds of billions $ just into their military budget for more than a year now
Do you have a source?
Let me answer: no, you don't, because they haven't.
Their latest budget forecast only puts them up to $109 billion for the coming fiscal year
Their entire budget is only about $360 million dollars.
If they spent ALL of that on defence it would still barely fulfil the criteria of HUNDRED((S))
So fuck off.
>missiles/rockets
Of what kind?
I said "cruise missile type weapon" and selected the above for a reason.
>last month
Does that translate to "every month"?
Rates are not even and linear, major spikes occur.
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Kyiv has been known to exaggerate such figures through careful wording; for example, the announcements of "Russia fired X,000 shells in Y month" so idiots like you assume it means that was their sustained rate of fire every month.
>Production is only limited by man-hours, not by machinery or raw material
lol
lmao even
>even if Russia did switch to essentially a wartime economy
Are you fucking delusional or something. They were throwing hundreds of billions $ just into their military budget for more than a year now. Their whole fucking GDP plateau and bounced back purely on military related industries outproducing the total collapse of civilian economy.
No fucking shit they are in wartime economy bozo
>it's not possible because I said so
HUR spokesman said russia produced 115 missiles/rockets last month. Unless you can show your own sources that state it's impossible, you have no idea what you're talking about.
Last summer they were firing antiship missiles to grain Silos, and not only old shit but P-800 oniks, their most advanced missile, the one for sinking carriers, just to fuck with grain Silos.
They have recovered parts for kalibr missiles manufactured this year, from the factory to the airfield in less than a month . This doesn't look like the signs of a steady missile production.
>just to fuck with grain Silos.
They may have fucked up and mistook it for a depot
>recovered parts for kalibr missiles manufactured this year, from the factory to the airfield in less than a month
it's possible they may have sped up work on half-finished missiles but that doesn't solve the overall production rate
before this all began Novator reported delivering 10 Kalibrs a month. I said DELIVERING, because it takes several months to build such a complex weapon from scratch. a missile may have component manufacturing dates of say October 2023, but that could be the culmination of a process that has to begin many months before. and that's not a problem that's easily solved.
>They have recovered parts for kalibr missiles manufactured this year, from the factory to the airfield in less than a month . This doesn't look like the signs of a steady missile production.
The war has certainly lead to a change in supply lines.
First, some components sourced in the west are not available anymore.
Secondly, new suppliers might have started delivering parts.
Thirdly, some parts might straight up have been replaced by similar parts from other sources, either other russian suppliers or chinese suppliers.
These changes lead to different missiles with significant changes, and why shoot them at a test range when you have a war going on and are shooting them in anger.
The targets engaged are often static infrastructure targets, not time critical to hit and you're not threatening your own troops immediately if they fail.
So they might just choose to test those on the battlefield instead of on a training range.
Yeah yeah, type up the "cope" posts because i don't immediately agree with the worst possible interpretation trying to make russia look the weakest possible.
>Discussions about politics or current events belong on /misc/.
I haven't seen this one since Kherson.
The Army is only spending $5 billion on missiles? Fuck, China deserves to win if we're that complacent.
doesn't include program costs for IADS, nooks and the like. it's not as bad as it looks if you disaggregate all the important shit
>russias navy is sailing
I have seen no evidence of this since their flagship got sunk.
>can those numbers really be realistic?
yes, but note that:
1. they do not include ~500 air-launched missiles of other types which don't have range > 350km but which do bear relevance in this mix.
2. the enumerated subtotal is 845 while the topline total from this same reporting is 870.
skibitskyi's (same source as OP) production estimates for the month of 2023-10 are:
115 high-precision missiles with range > 350km, of which
012 × iskander-k
030 × iskander-m
020 × kalibr
009 × kh32
040 × kh101
004 × khinzal
>in other words: just the 4 active ohio SSGNs have almost as much stock as the entirety of the russian armed forces
this list doesn't even include exclusively sea-launched missiles like oniks. using the estimates for naval comparisons doesn't make enough sense to bother with here.
the primary strike weapons over the winter will be, in descending order of willingness to spam:
- loitering munitions (shaheds etc.)
- ALCMs with range < 350km
- kh55/kh101/kh555
>Discussions about politics or current events belong on /misc/.
thats true, but why do you post this in my thread about cruise missiles and long range weapon systems?
>Russia is no producing 80+ kalibrs a month
May I see them?
>Last reliable KD numbers are quite old, but back then it was 2.4:1 in favor of russia.
where does that come from
> the ukries are much more willing to throw infantry into meatgrinders.
lol
>where does that come from
Military analysts who do not use twatter
Just say telegram, then. Silly vatnik
can we see them or their reasoning?
you see russia consistently lose more materiel and their main successes after the initial rush came by way of months long meatgrinders
I think he might be talking about the imaginary numbers Russia made up when they were "winning" in Bakhmut
AFV losses really do not agree with what you are saying
>The russians were ~20 years late to the precision strike game
You know nothing
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RK-55
>RK-55 Granite
>CEP of 150m
>"Precision"
now thats a whooping level of cognitive dissonance rarely seen on k
this has to be masochistic trolling or something. you know too much to be so wrong
>russia has a very long history
Russia is not the USSR, retard
>chips for guidance systems which any civilian can order for 3$
This is your brain on krokodil
You see Vanya, new Kalibr is of more precise
>what is means precise, Ivanov?
if not precision, to hit target you shoot 10 rockets, da?
>da
if precision, to hit target need only 1 missile, da?
>da
so you see, that is how new missile X-55 is 10 times smaller, and need only 1/10th raw material!
>superior Russian science is of amazing, Ivanov!
>just the 4 active ohio SSGNs have much rockets
Yup.
It's widely believed that each SSBN in the US Navy is the 3rd or 4th largest nuclear power on the planet.
t. did stuff with transducers
>UDSSR
lel it's a compromised East German
>please don't care please ignore it please have no position please-
Yeah man a zigger who is lying about literally everything he said couldn't possibly lying about speaking Russian, especially if he takes great pains to bring it up about 10 times
No more (you)s, try baiting that namefag again or something
well, they restrained themselves from missile chimpouts for a few months
It doesn't even looks like trolling, too much effort. You are just genuinely wrong.
Yeah I mean when one side has overwhelming disparity against the other, and is the aggressor, saying I don't choose a side is supporting the aggressor inherently. It's saying you're fine with smaller countries being invaded by larger ones, and that the bloodshed isn't just fun to watch like this board thinks, but that it's actually morally acceptable and worth allowing to happen again. I guess if you think that a might makes right status quo is fine, then fine don't care, but at least understand that nobody else will interpret that as anything but pro-aggressor sentiment, not neutrality.
AAAHHHHHHHH IVE BEEN DEMORALIZED!!!! NNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
>with up to
They are rarely ever at capacity.
>It was real in my mind
no sources on K:D
Either reply with them or don't and concede you made it all up you inept homosexual.
>I doubt it, you seem generally incompetent.
Ad hominem, no real argument. You seem to be the one who is actually incompetent.
kalibr production has been very consistently estimated at 100–120 / year for quite a while, by everyone boring enough to track this as their full-time job. for your story to have any weight, you'd have to namedrop specific facilities where you think this other production is happening. novator does not have this capability alone. you'd also have to explain where they're getting 80x engines per month, because saturn can't do that kind of volume.
>Ukraine claims
These numbers are rounded down at best
Did that come to you in a dream or something? Gas is extracted in the western Ukraine, and they mostly focused Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro and Odesa.
why do retards here (you) think that extraction magically follows from having a resource? no one is in any position to develop fields on ukrainian reserves. even in peacetime there would be a huge lag time between starting a project and actually being able to transport significant amounts.
the only thing russia has done to ukrainian gas is potentially make it viable after the war by turning its monopoly in Europe to a complete non-factor
Don't worry about it.
>2019
Great map, here's another one, slightly older, but still totally representative of what's going on in 2023
Ah yes the article written by a journalist presently living in moscow, with a totally unnamed source that isnt at all a bitter and disgraced Arestovich.
Seriously, look up his response to the article, its so fucking obvious he sourced it.
>US stock of ATACMS is 2200 and that the production line was shut in 2007
what the fuck is this nagger smoking
>ATACMS are precious and irreplacable
they're so NOT irreplaceable that the US fucking sold a bunch to various states
>2018, Bahrain, 110 missiles
>2010, Bahrain again, 30 missiles
>2010, UAE, 100 missiles
>2012, Qatar, 60 missiles
>2012, Finland, 70 missiles
>2014, UAE, 100 missiles
>2017, Romania, 81 missiles
>2020, Taiwan, 64 missiles
>2022, Lithuania, 18 missiles
>2022, Estonia, 18 missiles
>2022, Australia, 10 missiles
>Poland, 91 missiles over a couple of years
and this year:
>2023, Morocco, 40 missiles
>2023, Netherlands, 80 missiles
>2023, Poland, another 45 missiles
amazing, for a PRECIOUS, IRREPLACABLE, OUT OF PRODUCTION weapon with ONLY 2,200 in stock since 2007, the US sold 900 missiles to foreign countries (that they publicly admit, I know for a fact there are users not on this list)
>we
nice larp shitbird
fuck off you useless piece of snownagger trash
>Do ever feel something like "i don't care" about all of this politics?
If you don't care why did you care enough to post about how little you care?
>Simon Shuster is Russian. He moved to the US in 1989 and moved back to Moscow, where he worked for the Moscow Times in 2006.
>He coined such articles as:
>Violence in Ukraine: Can Russia or the West make it stop? Jan. 28, 2014
>Ukraine moves closer to civil war. Feb 20, 2014
>No, Russia will not intervene in Ukraine. Feb. 25, 2014
>Many Ukrainians want Russia to invade. Mar. 01, 2014
I'm sure that finding a DNC backer who interviewed Trump will lead to a fair article being released about him too and not an endless smear campaign. Or the vice versa with getting Tucker Carlson to interview Biden.
Mossy 590. First and only shotgun. Gets the job done and shoots real smooth. Standard stock and rubber pad it came with totally absorbs all recoil.
sexo
>If this was actually serious and not a small border dispute to them, if they choose to, they could make thousands of missiles a month.
This one is very good /k/
They are not going all out because they cannot withstand the consequences of going all out.
>we could if we wanted to!
>we just chose to pay Iran 2 billion dollars for Shasneeds because it's a GESTURE OF GOODWILL!!
>two more weeks just you wait
>the eyebrows will be compared, the eggs will raise, the gloves will boil and the cauldron will be taken off!!
>Last reliable KD numbers are quite old, but back then it was 2.4:1 in favor of russia.
Hey buddy, Russian telegram is two blocks down
2 more weeks