I know Streisand effect and all, but let's actually try to keep this weapons, military and strategy related.
There was some false information about Armenia triggering Article 4 of the CSTO yesterday. Apparently it was just Article 2 back then.
Well. They just triggered Article 4 - basically their equivalent of NATOs Article 5.
Let's actually try talking about what military aid the CSTO members could and likely will send, in case of article 4 being honored.
There have been 2 reports of strikes on Russian soldiers and/or equipment by Azerbaijan, both very much unconfirmed RUMINT. There also was talk about several RU military bases being practically abandoned.
RU forces, even though being peacekeeprs there, seem to not be engaged in fighting at all. They don't even seem to have much presence, besides two trucks being supposedly shot at. I've checked and besides the roughly 10.000~ somewhat combat ready troops of the Vostok 2022 excercises, the remnants of the 1st tank army that retreated to Belgorod, the yet undeployed 3rd army corp leftovers and various small units that retreated to Belgorod - what can Russia realistically send?
Source for those wondering:
https://news.am/eng/news/720173.html
>Do any of those two countries has NOOOKS?
>If answer is no - then nothing happens, skirmishes and maybe they will try to push their shit a bit
>Yes - NOOOKS
>Error: Russia has nooks, still getting their teeth kicked in
I mean they already folded and said that they won't enforce the article 4 and I doubt they even can at this point in time.
Yeah, nukes are deterrent but considering current state of russia it's something we won't see
Huh? The said they wouldn't enforce article 4? If you are refering to that one Ukie source, that was a severe misreading of the actual document.
The document condemned Azeri violence as "unacceptable", not violence as a response.
>I mean they already folded and said that they won't enforce the article 4 and I doubt they even can at this point in time.
Lying piece of shit, got a source for that claim?
Good luck russia nukes azerbaijan just because it's payback time for georgia
What vatniks were screeching before about how NATO wont do shit if its small members get attacked, is what we are going to see here, but for real
The better question is, will the EU dare sanction Azerbaijani fossil fuels?
If not, there is literally nothing stopping the Azeris rolling over Yerevan if they so wished, CSTO be damned.
Sanctioning the jannies would be pure virtue signalling in direct opposition to their economic and security interests. Europe is good at doing that, but I don't think they did last time so I don't see why they would now
Armenia is going to be sanctioned becouse it supports russia, and azzeri's can do whatever they want
The EU doesn't care about Azerbaijan or Armenia for that matter, so no, even without considering the fossil fuels aspect of it.
EU is switching to Azeri fossil fuels intermediated by Turkey and armenians deserve it so nothing is going to be done to Azeris.
They are both part of the Eastern Partnership, but I doubt they will hit them with sanctions unless they start massacring civilians or something.
EU has an out, Nagorno-Karabakh is de jure Azeri territory, so there's no reason to do Armenia favours.
Nah, Italy is the third country in the EU the main exporter partner for Azerbaijan, and one of its biggest importer
They'll veto every attempt to sanction it
Poland and Hungary would veto it too. Even Romania and Spain may veto it. If there's enough people then Croatia too.
There's too many retards online who just don't understand the real dynamics regarding Turkey and Azerbaijan, and buy into the memes and talking points invented by Greeks, France, Armenians and Russia.
That's why Turkey keeps winning. It's not simply because Turkey is some sort of uber genius. It's because everyone else is drinking so much koolaid that Turkey just flabbergasts them when it comes to the real-world.
Pro-Russian lies exist in thin air, so they're detached from ground reality. Most of the anti-Turkey talking points are lies and cartoonish exaggerations, so they're detached from ground reality.
Israel is supporting the Azeris and stand to proft from the war so I don't think the EU will counter Israeli interests
EU has a complex relationship with Israel, it's a close partner but some shit like occupied territories against international law is a big no-no for the EU. Still, I doubt they will intervene in any real capacity, they'll just say both sides must calm down and maybe negotiate an agreement like between Serbia and Kosovo earlier this year.
Why the fuck would we sanction our allies attacking snakes that support our enemy? That would be retarded.
armenians got fucked a lot over the last century
one and a half million civillians murdered by turkey
constant attack by azers
and the west won't help them because turkey has a key geographical position and azers have gas
they had no choice but to seek help from russia
just because for once we are doing the right thing in ukraine doesn't mean we are the good guys in every single conflict
we are not above supporting genocidal maniacs because (we think) it suits our goals
bin laden was financed and trained by us
the soviet reaping hordes were supported by us
retard here, but isn't the land that's being fought over internationally recognized as being Azeri?
They're invading Armenia proper as well, not just disputed territory
There isn't even disputed territory anymore is there? Armenia lost it all in the truce from the last war.
Nah, Artsakh still exist.
They Armenians did not give up control of all of it, it basically ended with the Azeris capturing a bunch of it and going yeah we can grab the rest later. It looks like that later meant a year or two.
Nothing
CSTO dies if no one helps.
Yeah, I don't think CSTO has any future left.
Are there any other treaties that are at risk of being shredded at the first sign of military aggression? e.g. in south east asia?
SEA is practically the US agreeing to defend most of the nations against china, with ANZ also chipping in for some areas and strategic bases.
now azeri attacks RU bases
Are there any photos from after the attack?
lost it
They siphoned out all the toilet wine.
Russian peackeeping forces have been struck by Azerbaijan.
For real?
No. Dirty lie. They made it back home under their own power.
Well actualy, storm came and they sunk
Is losing to the Azeris more or less humiliating than losing to the Ukies
Azerbaijan has a larger and better equipped military than Armenia, let alone a few rando Russian meat shields that were left with whatever didn't get sent to Ukraine and whose only job was to sit there and discourage Azerbaijan from shooting at wherever they were stationed.
A job they fucking failed at by the way. Dead dumbfucks. Fuck's sake, the Soviet Union's managed to only lose 16 meat shields in the entire fucking Vietnam War. When the fuck did they get this shit at this?
For some reason Armenia and their supporters think that Armenians can fire across Azerbaijani territory for decades, but that Azerbaijan can't fire back into Armenia.
Not only has that finally changed 3 decades later, but it would be smart for Azerbaijan to take chunks of territory not too far from the Iranian border to hold as a bargaining chip. Never fight a war where the terms are solely dictated by one side and the other is merely reacting to it. You need to proactively set terms and new frames of reference.
Ideal scenario would be for Azerbaijan to aim to cut off Armenia from Iran's border. Make it the new permanent battleground instead of western Azerbaijan like it's been the past 3 decades. Once Armenia yields, then make that region a permanent safezone manned by peacekeepers from all 4 relevant states.
This then ensures Armenians back off from western Azerbaijan, and it's also a warning to their diaspora who for years have pushed Armenia not to ever have peace talks with its neighbors and are the main driver behind Armenia becoming self-isolated in the region all for some sick ego trip of theirs.
There's a reason why nobody across Eastern Europe gives a fuck about them because Armenia is the South Caucasus' equivalent of the Serbroaches and Donbabweans, and have always been proxies for the Russian Empire. Georgia has no conflict with Azerbaijan, Turkey or Iran, only Russia. After the Cold War ended Armenia could have had cordial relations with all five but decided to chimp out.
In a similar vein, Ukraine would be smart to start flying kamikaze drones into parts of Transnistria and blow up some Russian camps because that place will always be a ticking time bomb otherwise. That's what the whole Snake Island and Odesa ordeal was about from Russia's perspective. Hit occupied Crimea, Transnistria and even the Northwest Caucasus, and you'll see Russia trying to cop pleas. ALWAYS SET THE TERMS.
In December 2019, Zelensky visited Azerbaijan where both he and Aliyev affirmed support for each other's territorial integrity.
> https://caspiannews.com/news-detail/ukraines-zelensky-puts-nagorno-karabakh-conflict-at-top-of-agenda-during-visit-to-baku-2019-12-19-55/
> https://commonspace.eu/news/azerbaijan-and-ukraine-pledge-support-each-others-quest-territorial-integrity
In October 2020, in the midst of the war between Azerbaijan and Armenian separatists, Zelensky reaffirmed Ukraine's support towards Azerbaijan.
> https://qirim.news/en/novosti-en/ukraine-supports-azerbaijan-s-territorial-integrity-zelensky/
In December 2020, a month after the war ended, Zelensky invited Ilham Aliyev to visit Ukraine.
> https://ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3160146-zelensky-invites-president-of-azerbaijan-to-ukraine.html
In September 2022, Ukraine called for sanctions against Bidzina Ivanishvili, Georgia's former Prime Minister, and several Georgian oligarchs.
> https://oc-media.org/ukraine-calls-for-sanctions-against-bidzina-ivanishvili/
Every Georgian PM—half a dozen of them—since Ivanishvili grabbed power a decade ago in October 2012 has been from the same party—Georgian Dream—including the current PM, Irakli Garibashvili, who are all in Russia's pocket against the wishes of the Georgian people.
For more about the situation with Georgia, read the two articles below:
> https://thebulwark.com/putin-is-failing-in-ukraine-but-winning-in-georgia/
> https://eureporter.co/world/azerbaijan-world/2022/07/20/azerbaijan-is-ukraines-only-strategic-ally-in-the-south-caucasus/
Now the stars are aligning for Georgians to take some cues from Ukrainians and Azerbaijanis in actually fighting back, and finally take their country back from its pro-Russia leaders and the Russia-backed separatists in the north!
>Every Georgian PM—half a dozen of them—since Ivanishvili grabbed power a decade ago in October 2012 has been from the same party—Georgian Dream—including the current PM, Irakli Garibashvili, who are all in Russia's pocket against the wishes of the Georgian people.
Fucking retard, Georgian Dream is planning a referendum on fucking declaring war on Russia.
they are planning a referendum with the idea that people will vote no to war. They are trying to prove they are correct in being pro-russia
That worked so well for David Cameron.
>Fucking retard, Georgian Dream is planning a referendum on fucking declaring war on Russia.
YOU DUMB MOTHER FUCKER.
That was directly in response to Azerbaijan attacking Armenian forces this week, and Ukraine calling for sanctions against Georgian Dream's leaders last week.
Try to connect the dots instead of being a sperg.
Agreed. Ivanishvili is trying to stay somewhat neutral while sucking off both sides. As long as Russia pays GD, they will keep helping them while pretending to be pro-west, even if the vast majority of Georgians despise Russia.
Smelly Turk detected. Nobody cares about roach justifications, and your shotguns suck.
The EU just signed a deal with Azerbaijan in July 2022 to supply it with gas as an alternative to Russia's.
https://www.offshore-technology.com/news/eu-gas-azerbaijan/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-signs-deal-with-azerbaijan-double-gas-imports-by-2027-2022-07-18/
It’s pathetic reading some of the retards on PrepHole who think Iranian Azerbaijan wants to join with Azerbaijan proper, and they’ll have a war.
Lets ignore that the supreme council of Iran has clerics from that region, and that ministers in government also are from that region too. Iran hasn’t had any serious separatist movements in it’s borders, even the Arabs and Balochistanis posed no major threat.
Also Erdogan’s distracted with a freefalling Lira, not to mention Russians, Greeks, Syrians, and Kurds. He doesn’t want to make Iran feel threatened in the region and start a conflict there too.
>freefalling Lira
>80.21%
looks like the drop has slowed.
>It’s pathetic reading some of the retards on PrepHole who think Iranian Azerbaijan wants to join with Azerbaijan proper, and they’ll have a war.
Practically NOBODY on PrepHole says that.
Show me 5 examples from the last month.
They were denied military support by Russia. What happens next is they get their shit pushed in by Azerbaijan.
azerbaijan is part of greater roachistan, represented by the half moon in their flag
Who cares? CSTO is literally Superhero League of Hoboken tier
>liberalism is a philosophy of sniveling brats
That's communism tho
No, that would be a philosophy for pathological liars.
Ironically, Marx hated Russia and considered it a reactionary counter-revolutionary shithole. he militated for the reconstruction of Poland.
they said no
>keef post
Love the Ukes like my brother, but my brother is a lying cunt. So I'll wait until we get more confirmation. If we get actual confirmation, I'm popping the champagne lmao.
well, do you trust these guys?
Caucasus report was pretty nifty so far and the direct quote leads to Armenian sources. So yeah, that seems more likely than article 4.
I wonder what happened behind closed doors. If Russia pressured Armenia into not activating article 4 or something.
Heard a russian opposition member saying Putin sold out Armenia to achieve two goals:
1) he gets rid of independent Pashinyan and install loyal russophile
2) beaten Armenia gets integrated into the Union State that already exists with Belarus as they're will be much more willing to do so post-war
First point I am unironically willing to believe. But second point? That seems like a stretch.
I'd belief it. I'd believe if more if Russia had gotten Belarus to invade Ukraine as an indication that the Union State was any sort of functional still.
Compromising their military *might* drive them closer to Russia to rebuild, but it also risks alienating them from Russia and driving them toward another power. Course Russia might think they can always just bully them into the Union if they've been broken, but that presupposes a lot of shit goes a very specific way. But Russia's perfectly willing to presuppose a lot of shit goes a very specific way that is favorable to them.
His reasoning was that the strong 5th columnists of armenian diaspora within Russia, who are strongly entrenched in Russian media, will feed the narrative that Armenia as a completely independent nation cannot exist while squeezed between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
The possible candidate to replace Pashinyan is supposed to be Vardanyan, who's a russian oligarch.
That's not out of the realm of possiblity if you think that's exactly what happened like a century ago when the soviets had an agreement with Ataturk to
partition them. AZ and Turkey want a corridor to Nakhchivan, Russia wants Armenia. Armenia was retarded enough to not make any reliable friends so no one gives a fuck what they want.
What exactly is in Armenia (other than muh rightful russia clay) that makes Russia and Putin want it?
>other than muh rightful russia clay
Literally noting. It's just muh historical mission wankery
Yes, seems like Putin is trying to kill the N-K hedgehog with Pashinyan's ass, then install some pro-Russian oligarch once the former invariably gets chased out by an angry mob.
There won’t be an angry mob, the Azeris have already killed all the Armenians in the territories they took in 2020. If they get n-k they’re just going to kill everyone and recolonize it.
>Armenia had a velvet revolution back in 2018
>they snubbed Russia in favor for the West
>Second Karabakh War happened, Armenia asked for help
>"Lul, not my problem. Also it's not in Armenia proper."
>Armenia got rekt, you got your "peacekeepers" in the region and Pashinyan got taught a lesson for turning his back against Russia
>genuine, if rather simple chess move
>fast forward two years later
>invade Ukraine because you squandered every diplomatic option you had
>"Hey NATO, *collapses everything Russian*"
>Russian vassals and client states in Russosphere try to get a piece of the pie
>Azerbaijan finally invades Armenia proper for real
>"Help us, Big Brother Russia! We're fucked!"
>this is your moment
>abandon the Armenians to their fates at the cost of of destroying your very own dollar-store NATO and what's left of Russia's credibility and respect
>all for a chance for an even more whipped bitch Armenia crawling back
>because that's the normal action of a country being abandoned by its main ally several times
Monke did one simple chess move back in 2020 and now he's doing a backflip into steep jagged cliffs.
>because that's the normal action of a country being abandoned by its main ally several times
Russian lobby is too strong in Armenia and it's not like they have other options. Instead of trying to co-exist with their neighbors, despite all the bad blood, they built their entire national identity on being insufferable perma-butthurt cunts who attack their neighbors at the first opportunity.
Do you see Georgia having problems with Turkey or Azerbaijan? Maybe it's not the turks who are the problem?
>Maybe it's not the turks who are the problem?
Let's not get crazy here.
so is that it? Artsakh is kill?
'Permanent peace' between Armenia and Azerbaijan won't mean that the Armenian diaspora will stand for it though. They want their failed project to go on until the whole South Caucasus gets annexed by Russia.
Sad fate of cum drinkers.
Honestly I feel kind of bad for the Armenians, but they sure always manage to choose themselves the worst possible allies.
try interacting with one, you'd stop feeling bad right away.
Lol. Why are Turk roaches so prevalent on this board?
Not many options. Turkey supports their genocide and is a part of NATO. Iran is. Well sketchy. They have amicable relations, but Iran isn't in a position to come to anyone else's defense.
Obviously they can't ally with Azerbaijan. Russia is the natural choice as the biggest regional power. But they have proven themselves incredibly inept. Allying with Georgia might've been nice, but again, they couldn't really ally *against* the national interests of Russia either.
They're just geopolitically landlocked into a really shitty position.
You forgot Israel.
Oh yeah. The garden gnomes don't like Christians either. They'll even work with Muslims to get rid of them.
Israel is all buddy-buddy with Azerbaijan, both rivals of Iran. Armenia truly drew the shortest straw after the Soviet collapse. Maybe one could blame Soviet map-drawing for this?
Israel's buddy buddy with loads of people. They allied the USSR AND the USA. Armenia should try rivaling Iran too. Get in on that shit. Maybe they can outcompete Azerbaijan and get Israel to stick a base in their south so Azerbaijan wouldn't fuck with them anymore. I'm sure Israel would LOVE a position that cuts flight times to Tehran to less than half.
You clearly don't know Armenians if you think only Turks can't stand them.
Even the lockdown fuckery in Australia has apparently been led by ethnic Armenian politicians.
I live in Glendale. I want to like Armenians but they way they act prevents this. I'm also fearing that soon we're going to start getting a lot of pro-Russian bullshit from them.
So which ones are the "good" guys? Armenians or Azeris?
Both are brown and poor. But one is Christian (of a borderline heretic flavor though) and the other Muslim, if that matters to you
now we're talking
>Tajikistan
>Kyrgyzstan
>https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/14/clash-erupts-between-kyrgyzstan-and-tajikistan-border-guards
>Berlaus lol
>Kazakhstan lmao
So only Russia is left?
The Russo-Sphere is an absolute fucking joke
I feel bad for Armenia, stuck between the CSTO and the turkroaches+azeri bastards
They are an unlucky people with poor leadership and no friends, they have my sympathy to be sure
We literally had the same shit two years ago and I don't know why there is still a discussion of this. It's like people had the memory of a fish.
two years ago, Russia was a force to be reckoned with, not a ragtag horde of baby rapers in bukhankas.
why is Armenia still holding on to Karabach? its literally over, they punish their own people by still holding on to it
Nothing. Russia is in no position to help right now and other CSTO members are all Turkic and likely pro-Azeri leaning. Armenia is probably fucked again and they just had to be situated in the worst possible location.