no, russia is too pussy for that
they are not suicidial - there's no official declaration of war, no mass mobilisation or some other big happenings like that. that means vatniks are confident they're still able to get something out of this.
also they're not gonna nuke murica or any nato country, so chill OP. the only one who could get actual nucular happunin is me >t. ukie
Ukraine has a treaty with China regarding nuclear weapons. If you're nuked, China theoretically has to nuke Russia back. They won't. They've already tried to wiggle out of it potentially. But it'd absolutely cripple their validity.
the are behind Russia invading to begin with
the chinese wanted a second North Korea, ever since Trump defanged North Korea china has been plotting for Russia to take its place
>What exactly have they been doing?
Stalling on potentially providing arms to Russia. Likely putting enormous diplomatic pressure on Putin to just accept the loss of face and end the war
5 cents has been deposited to you designated bank account
Depends >NATO vs Russia
invade the baltics and get beaten back to prewar border, NO >NATO and Russia throw missiles and air raid one another, NO >NATO tries to take Russian territory in the heartland, YES
>invade the baltics >back to prewar border
Nonono. Regardless of what Sokolov spouts that's not how wars work. Russia doesn't get to frick around and revert to earlier "savegame". Both sides will find have to find out. Borders will change, reparations, concessions and arms treaties will follow.
Russia is jumping over it's ass by victimizing itself, but look at this map and think what would be equivalent engdame and proper safety guarantee for Europe... IMHO Karelia up to lake Ladoga is a no brainer. But then we' re looking at Valdai and Central Russia hills as well s Volga river. Where would you stop and leave yourself exposed to another attack by enemy who's proven to be actively hostile after you're not trying to avoid war any more?
No. Putin won't do shit, and even if hegave the green light, his generals also need to okay it before launch which none of them are going to do because the only thing these corrupt morons truly care about is their own well being.
The entire Ukraine front was a war of annexation, however facing the stark reality of how deep their corruption runs, russian priorities have now changed. The war in Ukraine is merely a distraction to buy time to refit their stockpile of unmaintained nukes.
Every day the west pussyfoots around is one more viable device in enemy hands.
The time for a pre-emptive strike is now.
There's a national level Russian nuclear depot 15km from the Ukrainian border near Kharkov, no movements have been seen there, Ukrainians haven't tried to hit it. Stop wetting your pants over a nuclear war, it won't happen, and if it does, you'll notice strategic assets being moved in high number long before the war goes nuclear.
If the glowies become oddly agitated, you can start being concerned.
>Countries are led by sociopaths >Militaries are led by psychopaths
humanity's fate lies in the hands of decent, intelligent people who surreptitiously remove or disable critical components behind the operational modules in nuclear weapons to prevent Egotistical buttholes from turning them into mass murderers. I honestly believe the leaders of the world cannot wipe their asses without technicians and technicians aren't idiots or morons or psychopaths. No matter where you are in the world, technicians matter more than anyone else. They do their work quietly, they don't grandstand, they know the importance of who they are and what they do. They are decent people. They have been preventing mass casualty in the normal course of their business, all day, every day, and when some butthole tells them to cause mass casualties, the answer will always be the same: Frick off, Boss.
Russia may use a tactical nuke on Kiev if Ukraine (NATO) destroys the Kerch strait bridge and attacks Crimea.
If we allow nukes to be stationed in Ukraine then it is likely that London and DC will be nuked. Or at least targeted for nukes, their targeting might be off by a couple to a hundred miles.
I think the second, the millisecond a nuke is detected being launched towards the West there will be an immediate all out retaliation with everything we have.
The people watching the launch have no way of knowing if the nuke has been deliberately aimed at the North Sea or "to miss" at all, there's no way to tell. It's the dumbest option available for Russia.
Use of ANY nuke, even a small tactical one, will lead to Russia being utterly wiped off the map. You are not going to wait until nuclear war gradually escalates when each step will cost millions and millions of lives. Once the line beteeen conventional and nuclear is crossed it is full on nuclear annihilation.
>Use of ANY nuke, even a small tactical one, will lead to Russia being utterly wiped off the map.
Patently untrue. They could use one against UAF with basically no repercussions. A lot of russian higher-ups believe they could get away with nuking a lesser NATO member even to "call NATO's bluff" and it could conceivably work
I would argue that this is worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis. The number of people who died in Cuba amounted to one U-2 pilot who was shot down with a lucky shot from an S-75 and some Strategic Rocket Forces personnel who died of disease. In Ukraine, Russian soldiers are being are being killed in the thousands by American-made weapons, some of them being fired by American volunteers. Blood has already been split in copious amounts, and the fact that it's a one-sided slaughter makes the Russians even more likely to behave vindictively.
>They could use one against UAF with basically no repercussions.
And you would be absolutely fricking wrong. If the Russians use nuclear weapons in ANY manner (except perhaps in retaliation for something such as a chemical or biological weapons attack) and are permitted to get away with it, deterrence is completely thrown out the window, battlefield use of nuclear weapons is officially normalized, and worldwide nuclear proliferation that WILL result in a catostrophic nuclear war later down the line ensues.
If the Russians use nukes in Ukraine, NATO retaliates. Now since Ukraine isn't actually in NATO, there might be some wiggle room to downgrade said retaliation to a mere reciprocal nuclear strike (ex. a single B61 bomb dropped from a B-2 Spirit or AGM-86 ALCM fired from a B-52 targeting the presumed launch site) instead of a full-scale counterforce strike, but there will be retaliation regardless and it will be nuclear.
If the Russians use a nuclear weapon on a Ukrainian city like Kiev or Kharkov, NATO is more likely to immediately draw the conclusion that Putin has completely lost his mind and that his inner circle are either unable or unwilling to restrain him, and that the only acceptable response is to preempt the Russians and go straight to counterforce.
IT DOES NOT FRICKING MATTER YOU STUPID Black person.
Let me repeat myself since apparently you're hard of hearing or functionally illiterate. If the Russians use nuclear weapons in an unprovoked and unwarranted attack on Ukraine, it completely discredits any notion of that nuclear weapons are a last-resort weapon that would only be used if a nation's very existence was significantly imperiled and legitimizes as a first-resort offensive weapon.
The only way to prevent this from happening is for NATO to launch a corresponding nuclear attack on Russia that inflicts equal, if not greater damage to send the message that First Use will not be tolerated under any circumstances. Failure to do so not only solidifies nuclear weapons being used in an offensive role, but completely discredits America as a world power and its word of honor becomes worth less than a bag of shit.
The fact you stupid fricking Vatniks are incapable of grasping something as basic as nuclear deterrence is why your army is marching to utter disaster in Ukraine.
Actually the Ukrainian war showed that both sides aren't scared of sending tens of thousands of grunt to their death without nuking each others capitals. So hooray?
Yeah obviously. I'm just saying that Nato and the russian federation wouldnt hesitate to have some conventional flashpoints along their borders. They won't nuke each other directly cause their tanks are shooting at each other.
0%
The only line that dictators like Putin will never cross is harm coming to their person and comfort. Neither are threatened by him turning Russia into a third world shithole. His power is completely secured in Russia, with an internal security army that's reserved only for crushing rebellions. Even when Russia withdraws from Ukraine after sitting in a quagmire there for years, Putin won't come to harm. The only thing that can directly harm Putin is a nuclear war. Which is why he will never start it. Because a nuclear war would threaten his person and comfort.
The West will start it neither. And so a nuclear war won't happen.
>Agent K: >We do not discharge our weapons in view of the public!
>Agent J: >We don't got time for this cover-up bullshit. Look, I don't know if you forgot, but there's an Arquillian Battle...
>Agent J: >There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Korilian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable planet. The only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they "do not know about it!"
There will be time to act, when shit gets real you will have weeks to act before anyone else. Things to look out for: >Nuclear weapon being used on the battlefield or credible rumors thereof (this is a bit late but still days or even weeks away from a full exchange) >Direct NATO involvement in conflict (get your shit and shelter organized, you still have quite some time) >Any signs of russian government failing >China moving on Taiwan
These are the four horsemen that will signal shit is getting real and you should start moving
About the same chance as it was during the cold war, which means it's possible, but not probable. Proxy wars aren't a new thing, tension with Russia isn't new either. It would take a fair bit of escalation still before anyone pushes the button.
Of course the only caveat is there's a bunch of morons in power now, but maybe that's not new either.
https://pastebin.com/cWs6A7rR
>https://pastebin.com/cWs6A7rR
Hey man, I_ain't_clickin_that_shit_homie.jpg.gif.mp2.iso.cue.mdf.exe.mov.vmrl.bmp.tiff.avi.ogg
It's a pastebin, not a download link, dumb newbie.
No, either side has been very clear about the rules of this game and they are playing carefully.
Didnt trump talk about updating nukes and the nuke capabilities back in 2016? God knows what going to happen next
No we have an opportunity of nuclear war!
That all depends on one stupid fricking monkey in the kremlin and whether he values his life.
no, russia is too pussy for that
they are not suicidial - there's no official declaration of war, no mass mobilisation or some other big happenings like that. that means vatniks are confident they're still able to get something out of this.
also they're not gonna nuke murica or any nato country, so chill OP. the only one who could get actual nucular happunin is me
>t. ukie
Ukraine has a treaty with China regarding nuclear weapons. If you're nuked, China theoretically has to nuke Russia back. They won't. They've already tried to wiggle out of it potentially. But it'd absolutely cripple their validity.
China is already avoiding its treaty obligations to Ukraine.
The Chinese promised to help protect Ukrainian sovereignty not just from nuclear threats, but in general. What exactly have they been doing?
https://www.andrewerickson.com/2022/03/2013-prc-ukraine-treaty-of-friendship-cooperation-joint-communique-signed-by-xi-but-whats-it-worth/
>What exactly have they been doing?
Stalling on potentially providing arms to Russia. Likely putting enormous diplomatic pressure on Putin to just accept the loss of face and end the war
the are behind Russia invading to begin with
the chinese wanted a second North Korea, ever since Trump defanged North Korea china has been plotting for Russia to take its place
5 cents has been deposited to you designated bank account
God I wish
I wish. Nuclear vantikcaust will be dreamy.
>I'M NOOOOOOOOOOOOKING! I'M GONNA NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOK!
Fricking do it already.
Western and chink assets get activated and team up to take everyone out even if putin gave the order
Depends
>NATO vs Russia
invade the baltics and get beaten back to prewar border, NO
>NATO and Russia throw missiles and air raid one another, NO
>NATO tries to take Russian territory in the heartland, YES
>invade the baltics
>back to prewar border
Nonono. Regardless of what Sokolov spouts that's not how wars work. Russia doesn't get to frick around and revert to earlier "savegame". Both sides will find have to find out. Borders will change, reparations, concessions and arms treaties will follow.
Russia is jumping over it's ass by victimizing itself, but look at this map and think what would be equivalent engdame and proper safety guarantee for Europe... IMHO Karelia up to lake Ladoga is a no brainer. But then we' re looking at Valdai and Central Russia hills as well s Volga river. Where would you stop and leave yourself exposed to another attack by enemy who's proven to be actively hostile after you're not trying to avoid war any more?
No. Putin won't do shit, and even if hegave the green light, his generals also need to okay it before launch which none of them are going to do because the only thing these corrupt morons truly care about is their own well being.
The entire Ukraine front was a war of annexation, however facing the stark reality of how deep their corruption runs, russian priorities have now changed. The war in Ukraine is merely a distraction to buy time to refit their stockpile of unmaintained nukes.
Every day the west pussyfoots around is one more viable device in enemy hands.
The time for a pre-emptive strike is now.
There's a national level Russian nuclear depot 15km from the Ukrainian border near Kharkov, no movements have been seen there, Ukrainians haven't tried to hit it. Stop wetting your pants over a nuclear war, it won't happen, and if it does, you'll notice strategic assets being moved in high number long before the war goes nuclear.
If the glowies become oddly agitated, you can start being concerned.
>Countries are led by sociopaths
>Militaries are led by psychopaths
humanity's fate lies in the hands of decent, intelligent people who surreptitiously remove or disable critical components behind the operational modules in nuclear weapons to prevent Egotistical buttholes from turning them into mass murderers. I honestly believe the leaders of the world cannot wipe their asses without technicians and technicians aren't idiots or morons or psychopaths. No matter where you are in the world, technicians matter more than anyone else. They do their work quietly, they don't grandstand, they know the importance of who they are and what they do. They are decent people. They have been preventing mass casualty in the normal course of their business, all day, every day, and when some butthole tells them to cause mass casualties, the answer will always be the same: Frick off, Boss.
So you're implying that most nuclear weapons are actually disabled by technicians because the techs on both sides dont want war?
prisoner's dilemma. only a fool would destroy their defenses without any assurances that the enemy is doing the same.
Russia may use a tactical nuke on Kiev if Ukraine (NATO) destroys the Kerch strait bridge and attacks Crimea.
If we allow nukes to be stationed in Ukraine then it is likely that London and DC will be nuked. Or at least targeted for nukes, their targeting might be off by a couple to a hundred miles.
They won't to shit.
>London and DC will be nuked. Or at least targeted for nukes, their targeting might be off
Now GTFO and think a good hour what you just wrote..
Gee willikers milley you don't believe they could overshoot a targeted city.
I think the second, the millisecond a nuke is detected being launched towards the West there will be an immediate all out retaliation with everything we have.
The people watching the launch have no way of knowing if the nuke has been deliberately aimed at the North Sea or "to miss" at all, there's no way to tell. It's the dumbest option available for Russia.
Use of ANY nuke, even a small tactical one, will lead to Russia being utterly wiped off the map. You are not going to wait until nuclear war gradually escalates when each step will cost millions and millions of lives. Once the line beteeen conventional and nuclear is crossed it is full on nuclear annihilation.
>Use of ANY nuke, even a small tactical one, will lead to Russia being utterly wiped off the map.
Patently untrue. They could use one against UAF with basically no repercussions. A lot of russian higher-ups believe they could get away with nuking a lesser NATO member even to "call NATO's bluff" and it could conceivably work
I would argue that this is worse than the Cuban Missile Crisis. The number of people who died in Cuba amounted to one U-2 pilot who was shot down with a lucky shot from an S-75 and some Strategic Rocket Forces personnel who died of disease. In Ukraine, Russian soldiers are being are being killed in the thousands by American-made weapons, some of them being fired by American volunteers. Blood has already been split in copious amounts, and the fact that it's a one-sided slaughter makes the Russians even more likely to behave vindictively.
>They could use one against UAF with basically no repercussions.
And you would be absolutely fricking wrong. If the Russians use nuclear weapons in ANY manner (except perhaps in retaliation for something such as a chemical or biological weapons attack) and are permitted to get away with it, deterrence is completely thrown out the window, battlefield use of nuclear weapons is officially normalized, and worldwide nuclear proliferation that WILL result in a catostrophic nuclear war later down the line ensues.
If the Russians use nukes in Ukraine, NATO retaliates. Now since Ukraine isn't actually in NATO, there might be some wiggle room to downgrade said retaliation to a mere reciprocal nuclear strike (ex. a single B61 bomb dropped from a B-2 Spirit or AGM-86 ALCM fired from a B-52 targeting the presumed launch site) instead of a full-scale counterforce strike, but there will be retaliation regardless and it will be nuclear.
If the Russians use a nuclear weapon on a Ukrainian city like Kiev or Kharkov, NATO is more likely to immediately draw the conclusion that Putin has completely lost his mind and that his inner circle are either unable or unwilling to restrain him, and that the only acceptable response is to preempt the Russians and go straight to counterforce.
Deterrence doesnt apply for non-NATO countries, nobodys dying for ukraine
>Deterrence doesnt apply for non-NATO countries
IT DOES NOT FRICKING MATTER YOU STUPID Black person.
Let me repeat myself since apparently you're hard of hearing or functionally illiterate. If the Russians use nuclear weapons in an unprovoked and unwarranted attack on Ukraine, it completely discredits any notion of that nuclear weapons are a last-resort weapon that would only be used if a nation's very existence was significantly imperiled and legitimizes as a first-resort offensive weapon.
The only way to prevent this from happening is for NATO to launch a corresponding nuclear attack on Russia that inflicts equal, if not greater damage to send the message that First Use will not be tolerated under any circumstances. Failure to do so not only solidifies nuclear weapons being used in an offensive role, but completely discredits America as a world power and its word of honor becomes worth less than a bag of shit.
The fact you stupid fricking Vatniks are incapable of grasping something as basic as nuclear deterrence is why your army is marching to utter disaster in Ukraine.
>source: my ass
Russia is the only country in the world moronic enough to use nukes in a chimpout (the other is Iran) so yes, we are at risk.
Actually the Ukrainian war showed that both sides aren't scared of sending tens of thousands of grunt to their death without nuking each others capitals. So hooray?
another conventional war that will just be another footnote in history is better than a potentially civilization-ending one
Yeah obviously. I'm just saying that Nato and the russian federation wouldnt hesitate to have some conventional flashpoints along their borders. They won't nuke each other directly cause their tanks are shooting at each other.
0%
The only line that dictators like Putin will never cross is harm coming to their person and comfort. Neither are threatened by him turning Russia into a third world shithole. His power is completely secured in Russia, with an internal security army that's reserved only for crushing rebellions. Even when Russia withdraws from Ukraine after sitting in a quagmire there for years, Putin won't come to harm. The only thing that can directly harm Putin is a nuclear war. Which is why he will never start it. Because a nuclear war would threaten his person and comfort.
The West will start it neither. And so a nuclear war won't happen.
VatBlack folk won't do shit.
only if someone gets trips itt
Take my numerals brother
Please just let it all end.
>Agent K:
>We do not discharge our weapons in view of the public!
>Agent J:
>We don't got time for this cover-up bullshit. Look, I don't know if you forgot, but there's an Arquillian Battle...
>Agent J:
>There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Korilian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable planet. The only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they "do not know about it!"
There will be time to act, when shit gets real you will have weeks to act before anyone else. Things to look out for:
>Nuclear weapon being used on the battlefield or credible rumors thereof (this is a bit late but still days or even weeks away from a full exchange)
>Direct NATO involvement in conflict (get your shit and shelter organized, you still have quite some time)
>Any signs of russian government failing
>China moving on Taiwan
These are the four horsemen that will signal shit is getting real and you should start moving
>With tensions with Russia what are the chances of nuclear war?
0%
lol
even in your white propaganda you're dehumanized
About the same chance as it was during the cold war, which means it's possible, but not probable. Proxy wars aren't a new thing, tension with Russia isn't new either. It would take a fair bit of escalation still before anyone pushes the button.
Of course the only caveat is there's a bunch of morons in power now, but maybe that's not new either.